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January 20th, 2008 @ 7:31 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd failed to print a new high on the weekly chart, it stopped just under the November 23rd high at 1.4966 at the resistance offered by the trendline that connects August and September 2007 swing lows. Breaking the weekly movement on a daily basis we see that Monday the pair pushed higher and although it made a new high on Tuesday after that we had a straight down move supported by a speech from an ECB banker and the fact the EurUsd was trading in an overbought area. The weekly low was made on Thursday at 1.4587 and after that we saw the bearish momentum slowing down and the pair closed just above 1.4600. We maintain our bearish bias for the following days with the mention that Monday is a holiday in the US and trading might be slow; perhaps the most important bearish target is December 20th low at 1.4300 which is also an important support level a place where bullish traders will want to use as a base for a repeat of December’s movement.
Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

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January 13th, 2008 @ 7:05 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro opened the week trading lower and slowly slipped toward the 1.4600 support level but after failing to make a new low on Thursday, the day of the ECB interest rate announcement, at 1.4640 it pushed higher for the rest of that day and retested once again an important resistance trendline just above 1.4800. Trading on Friday was slow as the pair stayed contained inside a small range around the 1.4800 level. We have reached a point where bullish traders, the ones that have their sights set on 1.5000, fight with the ones that look at the USD strength and expect a move lower toward the December low at 1.4300. We, for the time being, maintain our rather bearish point of view and that is the following, as long as the the 1.4825 resistance holds we look for shorting opportunities, a break above that resistance will force us to start looking for a test of the 2007 1.4966 November high before reaching the 1.500 psychological target.
Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

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January 6th, 2008 @ 8:40 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro recovered in the last week of 2007 and got above 1.4700 where the pair traded in the past few days, and formed a hammer candle on the weekly chart(as seen below). While we are trading below Friday’s high at 1.4830 we maintain our bearish bias on this pair and expect a move lower aiming at first for the 1.4600 area as an intermediary target before the 1.4300 December low. EurUsd is trading in an overbought area close to a strong resistance level on the daily chart and this is one of the facts that makes us think the pair is going to go lower. Conversely a move above Friday’s high will certainly be a blow to shorts and perhaps shift focus towards the psychological target of 1.5000, a target we failed to reach in November.
Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

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December 2nd, 2007 @ 8:06 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd traded above the 1.4800 level for the first three days of the week, but after a failed attempt at breaking lower on Wednesday the second try was successful and we witnessed a drop on Thursday and Friday, a drop that broke through the 1.4700/1.4735 support area and got very close to the 1.4600 round number which is the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement line of the last leg up from 1.4000 to the YTD high at 1.4967. Looking at the recent price action we can expect that the down move to continue although a retest of the trendline the pair broke through on Friday is to be expected, that should offer a new opportunity to enter short. Moving below the 1.4600 round number and a second trendline connecting higher lows on the daily chart will open up the 1.4500 area as a bearish target, an area which coincides with the 50.0 Fibonacci of the above mentioned move up.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

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October 21st, 2007 @ 5:15 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro started the week slowly, trading around the 1.4200 level until Wednesday, and pushed higher on Thursday to touch the former high at 1.4300. Friday’s price action managed to print a new high at 1.4320 but the pair closed the week just a few point below the 1.4300 round number. The pair confirmed our expectations of moving higher and it still has some potential to move even further north, like we already mentioned the 1.4500 level is seen by many as a significant bullish target. In the following days we should keep an eye on the current YTD high as the pair might find some resistance at that level, but the overall bias is still bullish and if there are no big surprises we should see a higher high this week. A failure to make new highs will force us to look for support levels, and we can clearly see on the weekly and daily charts the up-sloping trendline where the price will most likely find some strong support.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4300 YTD High
  • 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3930 – September 13th high
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

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