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retracement

March 3rd, 2008 @ 11:51 pm by Mihai Marinescu

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Hello again,

At first glance the high volatility in some pairs at the end of last week should have given us some nice trading opportunities at the beginning of this week, however when we approached the charts there was no clear immediate trading setup we could follow.

On the JPY pairs the downtrend seems strong and most likely not complete, however short-term opportunities for LONG trades were there (signaled by trendline breaks and 1-2-3 setups on the larger EW outlook). EURUSD and GBPUSD seemed particularly confusing, with short confirmations not yet triggered but bullish momentum apparently weakening.

USDCHF and EURCHF seemed on the path of a retracement after the strong CHF rally recently (by the time of this writing USDCHF already confirmed the move up).

USDCAD remains in consolidation/retracement, with 200MA on 1h possibly providing short-term resistance.

Right now, looking for EURUSD to start a decline after the failure to sustain the rally above 1.5270 yesterday. USDCHF might follow the same path (up) if the CHF remains into consolidation in short-term, so these are the pairs likely to give interesting setups later in the day.

Will follow these setups in our Live Trading Room and look for trading opportunities.

Happy trading everyone!

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January 30th, 2008 @ 5:35 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Statement

Today our main point of focus is the Fed interest rate statement, a decision that is far from being clear at this point. The market is getting ready for some action tonight, and breakouts are highly possible in almost all currency pairs.

EURUSD and GBPUSD might get ready to take off on a nice rally (EURUSD heading up to 1.4820 at the time of this writing), however I’m still expecting the moves to cool off starting with the US session open and prices getting back in range. Technicals are pointing towards a possible retracement on the higher timeframes, however any down leg needs to be confirmed by the fundamentals, otherwise we are looking at a continuation up.

In the (for me unlikely) situation that the interest rate favors the dollar short-term, the move down in EURUSD and GBPUSD just after the news could be a good opportunity to re-enter long on the larger bullish trend on these pairs.

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January 28th, 2008 @ 8:06 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hello everybody!

We started today’s London session with an careful look at GBPUSD and GBPJPY, where the overall sentiment seemed bullish at the time. With the EW picture suggesting both pairs possibly getting out of the minor correction down started on Friday and short-term technicals also confirming reversal (including 200MA signal on 15m) we went LONG on cable @1.9808 on a trendline break confirming a 1-2-3 setup. Stop was placed below the trednline @1.9758. Our target is the possible top of a 5 waves formation up at 1.9915 (where another pullback can be expected).

Also, GBPJPY seemed to continue the large retracement move started last week and so far we have a good support @209.61, a previous resistance and supp. As long as the pair is holding above this level, we are still on a bullish retracement scenario, with initial target @212.10, followed by 214.00 and 217.50.

EURUSD looked like trading in range, and we expect it to continue some range trading until the interest rate decision on Wednesday. No trades on this pair today.

USDCAD has confirmed already a bearish move on Friday, and we are looking for possible entries short.

See you tomorrow!

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November 15th, 2007 @ 3:08 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a green bar on the daily charts yesterday, and although it pushed above 1.4700 to a make a daily high at 1.4726 it lacked the energy to stay there and it retraced close to the current trading level of 1.4680. The area above 1.4700 proves to be tough resistance as we’ve already mentioned in our previous commentary but the pair still maintains, for the time being, its bullish bias. Again we have to reiterate that we have our sights set on the current YTD high at 1.4735, if the pair crosses decisively above 1.4700 we should reach that target by the end of the week, yesterday the pair was just a few pips away from making a new high. On the other side, if the 1.4700/1.4735 area proves to tough it might push the pair lower and first support is around the 1.4600 and the up sloping trendline.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

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November 13th, 2007 @ 4:18 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro followed the other majors and lost ground against the the US dollar on Monday, the pair broke below the support trendline and the 1.4600 level only to find support a few points above 1.4500. After yesterday’s big move down, more than 140 points, we are seeing the pair bounce back up, it has already recovered most of the lost ground and is trading again above 1.4600. The volatility has clearly increased in the last few days and that has affected almost every pair, having changed the way price action develops usually, EurUsd mid term trend is still bullish although we have seen a repositioning in the market mostly based on fundamental reasons. The main target for longs is now the YTD high at 1.4735 which has so far proven to be a good resistance level as well. On the other hand a failure to resume the up trend will push the pair lower perhaps below the 1.4500 support area.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.5000– round number
  • 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

  • 1.4500- round number
  • 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
  • 1.4000 – Round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High

Read the rest of this entry »

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