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June 13th, 2007 @ 3:00 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro continued losing ground against the US dollar yesterday, it broke under the 1.3300/15 support area and is now getting close to the next support level established on February 27th at 1.3260. The overall bias is still very much short, and with the current momentum, euro looks to be heading towards the 1.3160 area which is the .50 Fib of a small range we had in Late February and early March, the low of the mentioned range at 1.3070 is also a strong support level that has already been tested a few times early in the year. Although the pair has significant downside momentum one should pay attention to a possible reversal and be aware of future resistance levels, most of which were former support and once broken they turned into resistance. December 3rd high of 1.3365 is the closest resistance, above it we can see the 1.3410/60 area before June 5th high of 1.3550.


Resistance Levels

  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High



Support Levels

  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High
  • 1.6134 – .50 Fib of Feb-March range

eur-june-13-07.gif

GBPUSD Analysis

Cable made a move above 1.9750 yesterday but it didn’t had enough strength to close the day above it, and today in the asian session it started to slip towards the 1.9700 level. Looking at the daily charts we can see that a bullish might still start and if the pair breaks above the 1.9750/60 area it will open up the 1.9840/70 May 4th/December 1st 2006 highs as a bullish target and set the sights on the 2.00 psychological level. So far our previous commentary proved to be right, the 1.9750 resistance is strong and managed to push price bellow it, if cable is to follow the euro trend that will send the pair lower towards Friday’s low of 1.9620, before that price will have to clear the 1.9670 support. If the pair gets that low we will have to pay attention to April 9th low at 1.9590 followed by the .50 Fib of the December-April trading range, level that now is strengthen by an upward trendline from the beginning of the year.





Resistance Levels

  • 2.0200 – Round number
  • 2.0133 – April 18th High
  • 2.0060/70 – April 25th High
  • 1.9840/70 – May 4th / December 1st 2006 High
  • 1.9750/60 – retested level, May 11th low


Support Levels

  • 1.9700 – May 18th Low
  • 1.9670 – February 27th High
  • 1.9550 – .50 Fib

gbp-june-13-07.gif

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June 12th, 2007 @ 2:37 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

 

          Euro had a slow start into the week with a very small range on Monday. Bias is still to the downside but we need to see some more energy, price needs to trade away from the 1.3364 resistance. If last weeks momentum will continue we will see Fridays low of 1.3315 followed closely by January 7th high of 1.3300 as bearish targets; and if we look even lower we have February 27th high at 1.3260 as strong support. Our previous commentary about a possibility of price reversing north are still valid and if that will be the case we have a few support levels now turned into resistance that are worth mentioning. Just above the current trading price we have the 1.3410/60 range and above that there’s Tuesday June 5th high of 1.3550, both important areas to overpass if the price is to reverse its downside trend.
               

 Resistance Levels

 

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low

 
Support Levels

  •  1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High

eur-june-12-07.gif

 

 

GBPUSD Analysis

 
          Cable showed some signs of retracement yesterday and early today, being rejected by the 1.9670 support it touched the 1.9750     resistance today in the Asian session. So far the 1.9750/60 resistance has kept the pair lower but we are still very early in the day and at this point anything could happen. If the pair breaks above the 1.9750/60 area it will open up the 1.9840/70 May 4th/December 1st 2006 highs as a bullish target and set the sights on the 2.00 psychological level to be reached later in the week. Conversely the 1.9750 resistance might prove to be to strong for the cable to break and that will send the pair lower towards Friday’s low of 1.9620, before that price will have to clear the 1.9670 support. If the pair gets that low we will have to pay attention to April 9th low at 1.9590 followed by the .50 Fib of the December-April trading range, level that now is strengthen by an upward trendline from the beginning of the year.

 

    
Resistance Levels

 

  • 2.0200 – Round number
  • 2.0133 – April 18th  High
  • 2.0060/70 – April 25th High
  • 1.9840/70 – May 4th / December 1st 2006 High
  • 1.9750/60 – retested level, May 11th low

 

Support Levels

  •  1.9700 – May 18th Low
  • 1.9670 – February 27th High
  • 1.9550 – .50 Fib

gbp-june-12-07.gif

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June 11th, 2007 @ 1:37 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View
Euro covered a bigger range than it has used us in previous weeks, after a strong push north on Monday and Tuesday breaking out of a tight range, it has bounced off the 1.3550 resistance and with help from some fundamental news dropped sharply in the last three days of the week from a high of 1.3550 to as low as 1.3315 on Friday. The pair closed the week just a couple of points above the 1.3364 support line established on December 3rd. Considering the last couple of days momentum if the pair drops and stays bellow the mentioned support level at 1.3364 we will have to look lower down for support zones, the first one is Fridays low at 1.3315 followed closely by January 7th high of 1.3300; even lower we have February 27th high at 1.3260 as strong support which could very well reverse the downtrend. Despite the sharp fall there is still a chance that the euro will get back its strength and recover some of the loses from the last couple of weeks, if that will be the case we have a few support levels now turned into resistance that are worth mentioning. Just above the current trading price we have the 1.3410/60 range and above that there’s Tuesday June 5th high of 1.3550, both important areas to overpass if the price is to reverse its downside trend.



Resistance Levels

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low



Support Levels

  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High

eur-june-11-07.gif
GBPUSD Analysis

Cable put in an amazing 350 pips range this week, after making a push north it fell short of touching the 2.00 level by 35 pips on Tuesday, making a high at 1.9965. After a very inactive day on Wednesday the pair fell in the last couple of days of the week to as low as 1.9620, only to close the week, same as the euro, a few points above the significant support level at 1.9670. Although the pair has showed considerable downside momentum we have to be very careful as we can see some strong support levels in the very close vicinity of price. If cable manages to get bellow 1.9670 support line we have to pay attention to April 9th low at 1.9590 followed by the .50 Fib of the December-April trading range, level that now is strengthen by an upward trendline from the beginning of the year. If the support levels mentioned hold the pair above them traders might decide that this is a potential good place to start another push north, and with that in mind focus will move to former support levels now turned into resistance, first there is the 1.9750/60 area, higher we have the 1.9840/70 May 4th/December 1st 2006 highs and even higher the now reinforced 2.00 psychological level. We, as always, will monitor the situation and provide our analysis in the following days while price action develops.


Resistance Levels

  • 2.0200 – Round number
  • 2.0133 – April 18th High
  • 2.0060/70 – April 25th High
  • 1.9840/70 – May 4th / December 1st 2006 High
  • 1.9750/60 – retested level, May 11th low


Support Levels

  • 1.9700 – May 18th Low
  • 1.9670 – February 27th High
  • 1.9550 – .50 Fib

gbp-june-11-07.gif

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June 8th, 2007 @ 3:35 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

 

          Euro fell more than 100 points in yesterday’s session and early today, from trading above the 1.3500 level and still having bullish prospects is now trading bellow the 1.3410 support. Now it looks unlikely that the pair will reverse suddenly but if it is to happen we have some clear resistance levels to watch out for, first is the 1.3459 May 10th low which is now also the .50 Fib of the last move down, higher up we have June 5th high of 1.3550 as the top of the swing move and even higher we have the 1.3610/30 resistance area. With the charts looking like they do now we have to consider the current downside momentum        and look for future possible bearish targets or potential reversal points. December’s 3rd support at 1.3365 stands out as the closest support followed by January 7th level of 1.3300 and February 27th high at 1.3260. We will continue to monitor the situation and act accordingly when price will reach the above mentioned levels.

              

 Resistance Levels

 

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low

 

 

Support Levels

 

  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High

eur-june-08-071.gif

GBPUSD Analysis

 
          Cable covered an amazing distance yesterday and early today, after it broke  Tuesday and Wednesday’s small trading range, to the south it just continue going south without looking back. Once bellow the 1.9900 level the pair kept gathering momentum and broke through every support zone and is now trading just a few points above February 27th high at 1.9670. If the pair continues its south trip the support levels worth mentioning are April 9th low at 1.9590 followed by the .50 Fib of the December-April trading range, level that now is strengthen by an upward trendline, lower down we have the low of February 13th at 1.9400 as a significant support zone but that is pretty far away even with the current moves momentum. Conversely if the pair will start reversing we have to pay attention to all the support levels that were broken yesterday as they have been transformed into resistance points. First there is the 1.9750/60 area, higher we have the 1.9840/70 May 4th/December 1st 2006 highs and even higher we still have not broken the 1.9900 level decisively.

 

 

                  

            

Resistance Levels

 

  • 2.0200 – Round number
  • 2.0133 – April 18th  High
  • 2.0060/70 – April 25th High
  • 1.9840/70 – May 4th / December 1st 2006 High
  • 1.9750/60 – retested level, May 11th low

 

Support Levels

 

  • 1.9700 – May 18th Low
  • 1.9670 – February 27th High
  • 1.9550 – .50 Fib

gbp-june-08-07.gif

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June 7th, 2007 @ 1:51 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View
Yesterday we saw a slowdown in what appeared to be a stronger reversal up north, price although it made a lower low on the daily charts closed above 1.3500 which in itself keep open the possibility that the pair will resume the move towards the 1.3610/30 resistance before making a push to take the YTD high at 1.3680. On the way we have to break above Tuesday’s high of 1.3550 which at the moment is the closest resistance level. If on the other hand yesterday’s move is going to continue EurUsd will likely slip under the 1.3500 and will re-enter the 1.3410/70 range area, area which could act as a base for another push north or will not prove to be strong enough and the pair will get bellow it, if this happens we have strong support zones at December’s 3rd support at 1.3365 followed by January 7th level of 1.3300 and February 27th high at 1.3260.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low



Support Levels

  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Lows
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High

eur-june-07-07.gif
GBPUSD Analysis


Cable has also slowed down not managing to get above the 1.9960 level, the last couple of days have had really tight trading ranges and we will need to wait and see on which part the pair will break out of this range. A break above 1.9960 will get us very close to the 2.00 level and once there if price has enough momentum we might see the 2.0060/70 resistance area becoming a valid target having our sights set on the YTD high at 2.0133. Conversely if cable fails to hold on to its gains and slips under the 1.9900 we have to look at price action at the 1.9840/70 support zone if the pair doesn’t react to that we have support levels further down at the 1.9750/60 area and the 1.9700 level established on May 18th.
Since Tuesday’s high we have seen a lower high being made early yesterday morning and two consecutive higher lows, al of which could be the base for a triangle pattern clearly seen on the lower timeframes.


Resistance Levels

  • 2.0200 – Round number
  • 2.0133 – April 18th High
  • 2.0060/70 – April 25th High


Support Levels

  • 1.9840/70 – May 4th / December 1st 2006 High
  • 1.9750/60 – retested level, May 11th low
  • 1.9700 – May 18th Low
  • 1.9670 – February 27th High
  • 1.9550 – .50 Fib

gbp-june-07-071.gif

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May 21st, 2007 @ 2:36 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

After a failed attempt to push higher on Monday and Tuesday, Euro didn’t manage to stay above the 1.3600 level and retested May 10th support at 1.3459 only to bounce back above 1.3500. As we can see on the weekly charts the price action was undecided and we stayed inside the previous weeks trading range, the only clear thing established was a reinforcement of the 1.3630 and 1.3459 areas as a resistance and support zones respectively. A break out above or bellow the mentioned levels would certainly be in the cards on the following week, getting bellow 1.3459 would open up December 3rd high of 1.3364 as a target followed in closely by the 1.3300 round number and January 7th high. If Euro is going to gather some strength in the next couple of days we might see another push towards the 1.3610/30 resistance area and once there we can see the 1.3680 YTD becoming a target for longs. We will closely monitor the situation in the following days also on the lower timeframes looking for possible signs of strength or weakness for both longs and shorts.


Resistance Levels

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low



Support Levels

  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Lows
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High Read the rest of this entry »
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May 18th, 2007 @ 4:54 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD


Euro slipped under 1.3500 in yesterdays trading session but only got as low as 1.3475, 15 points above the support levels established on May 10th at 1.3459. Getting under the 1.3459 support might trigger more downside pressure on the pair which will open up December 3rd high of 1.3364 as a target and once there we will analyze the continuation potential. If on the other hand euro doesn’t manage to get bellow the current trading levels, and if we consider the slightly oversold conditions on the 4hr and daily charts, we will have to pay attention to future resistance as the pair might reverse the move from the last couple of days. The closest resistance is the 1.3523/50 zone, once above it May 16th high of 1.3610 and May 7th high of 1.3630 are the intermediary resistance zones until the 1.3668/80 YTD high.


Resistance Levels

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High
  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low

Support Levels

  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Lows
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High

eur-may-18-07.gif

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May 17th, 2007 @ 3:49 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD


Euro formed an outside bar yesterday, taking out both of Tuesdays high and low, it didn’t manage to reach the 1.3630 level on the high side but it got under the 1.3523 support only to stop at the 1.3500 round number. Once again we are trading around the 1.3523/1.3550 zone and we have to wait for price to break through either side in order to have a much clearer view of things to follow. On the down side we now have yesterdays low of 1.3500 as closest support followed by May 10th/11th lows of 1.3459, if these two levels fail to hold the pair next strong support is December 3rd high of 1.3365. If the current levels the price is at hold and we get another push north first targets would be 1.3610 and May 7th high of 1.3630, if those are cleared we can expect another try at the 1.3668/80 YTD highs.


Resistance Levels

  • 1.4532 – March 2005 High
  • 1.3668 – December 2004 High
  • 1.3630 – May 7th High


Support Levels

  • 1.3523 – April 16th Low
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Lows
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3300 – January 7th High
  • 1.3260 – February 27th High

EurUsd Daily Chart

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