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Articles by Mihai Marinescu

August 27th, 2009 @ 6:53 pm by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi again everyone,

No analysis this time, just a heads-up: we’re oFF FF! Yeap that’s right, we’re dismissed :) Starting tomorrow you won’t be able to read our articles & analyses on ForexFactory. Personally I think that’s for the best… You already know us and we most likely know you, we can work together just as well without any intermediaries. All you have to do from now on is to sign up for updates directly from our website & receive our articles hassle-free: http://fxinstructor.com/eng/resources/commentaries.php.

I haven’t been around FF as long as our colleague Matt Carniol (by the way Matt, I was truly impressed with your dedication & perseverence in publishing your high quality articles over the years, keep up the great work! :-) ) but I did notice that sometimes on ForexFactory people lose sight of their objectives, judge excessively & unjustly and in general simply prefer having a good dispute with a so-called “competitor” rather than hearing the guy out & see what he has to say… It is because of this that some of us (i won’t say ALL) got a lot of out-of-the-hat fade votes & outspoken hostility simply because our last name happens to be FXInstructor. I was not offended, neither did I respond to any such provocations which simply turn me away from my work & my objectives. FXInstructor is not about that… I believe that the quality & integrity of our work speak for themselves & therefore no other answer is needed except our views on the market – that’s what most of you are here for anyway. If you haven’t already, I invite you to pay us a visit in our Live Trading Room & see for yourselves who we are, how we analyze the charts & how we trade the market.

Regardless of our relationship with FF (or lack of it starting now), I want to thank all of you FF traders who generously voted for us, sent us feedback & in general put your trust in us over the last years. I invite you to participate in our FXInstructor community & continue to actively share your thoughts & comments with us all. There are a lot of free resources for you to check out, a lot of events (free courses, Live Trading Room, guest speakers, etc) available every week, a great forum with REAL traders, lots of new & exciting news coming up with the arrival of our new website format. In one word – we’re a vibrant community of traders sharing the goal of trading together successfully, learning from each other & having fun while inevitably spending time in front of the charts ๐Ÿ˜›

So, goodbye ForexFactory readers, wherever you are… And welcome to FxInstructor.com! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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August 26th, 2009 @ 3:44 pm by Mihai Marinescu

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26aug_gu_d1

Hi everyone!

The breach down in GBP pairs I’ve been waiting for the last few days finally happened, and the daily close should finally confirm we’re going down for a continuation of the corrective patterns started at the beginning of the month (close below 154 should do the trick). On GJ, the breach of the daily trendline is now imminent, together with a clear break through the good support area @154 (quadruple bottom yesterday). My target areas are 150 & 148 for the near future (up to 2 weeks price action).

Does that mean we’re going straight down from here? I really don’t think so… A quick look at ALL the GBP pairs H1-H4 charts will show that Pound has aggressively bounced against all the other majors (EUR, CHF, USD, JPY) & is now correcting higher – that can be a sign to avoid this phase if you want to join the ride on the short side & wait for pullbacks up to 153.60 – 154 in GBPJPY and 1.6275 – 1.6300 in GBPUSD. Those should be good levels to enter short with reasonable stops (not more than 100 pips) for rallies of at least 300-400 pips (maybe even more on GJ if the drop is well sustained).

Good luck! :-)

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August 17th, 2009 @ 4:21 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi again everyone!

It’s Monday so I’m going to start with a weekly perspective. After the bullish trade we took last week on a retracement (http://blog.fxinstructor.com/cable-about-to-correct-recent-drop/), this week I’m looking at a completely different situation. First, the very fact that the correction last week only managed to touch 1.6670 (38.2 of the previous wave down) & then the bears had the chance to reach down to 1.6435 once again earlier today is significant from a mid-term perspective. This fulfills my first condition for a bear rally mentioned last week in our LTR – bulls’ failure to get out of trouble by re-conquering & holding on to at least 61% of the drop before price hits back last week’s bottom. In other words what doesn’t go up must come down – that’s what I’m expecting to happen this week. Here’s the chart pics & facts:

17aug_gu_w1

The W1 chart seems to be turning as 1.6750 rejects the bull run once again forming an interesting bearish candlestick pattern right at the top. The RoC TL is broken for weeks now & the price has already crossed its own TL @1.6450 (needs to stay below to confirm). At the same time the RoC is giving a big bear divergence, all this on the background of a bearish monthly chart. Could the longer-term bear trend be resumed here? This week might be the key to this question…

17aug_gu_d1

The daily chart looks interesting as both bearish & some bullish arguments can be developed from the current situation. What is particularly interesting for me are 3 points:

1) the first aggressive trend line was broken @1.6545 – that wouldn’t be relevant if price hadn’t come up again to retest the same TL with failure @1.6615. The same daily candle closes nicely below the D1 20MA which is now a resistance. The 60MA is now again tested (it’s been support for the rally up since March & for now it holds). The previous triple top res. @1.6605 is now capping perfectly a move that is now about to be confirmed as a mere corrective pattern after the 1.7042-1.6390 rally…

2) there are 2 important daily &weekly trend lines & a support level in the 1.6430 – 1.6340 area. This should provide at least bullish reactions if not even a bullish wave but in case this area is easily broken down by the bears the mid-term bear scenario I have in mind will receive a lot of backup. Price action around these levels will be ย very interesting to observe.

3) The current wave down doesn’t make much sense to me as a W4 of a bull impulse started @1.5984. The move is too well sustained & too deep to be a W4, besides it has no corrective structure at all. On the other hand, if this push is just W1 of a newly emerged bearish impulse then everything could be easily explained in bearish language :-)

17aug_gu_h4

Finally, the H4 picture on my chart is bearish since friday last week. The indicators are down & the short-term TL is broken @1.6540. The MA’s are clearly pointing down, and the H1 chart is bearish since 1.65. Momentum is not yet great, but I see good potential if the bulls don’t step in to correct this move very soon (in the next 2-3 sessions).

CONCLUSION:

Today I’ll only look for shorts, my ideal entries are in the 1.6475-1.6510 area, stops @1.6590. In case no upper correction comes before London open or immediately after, I’ll look to short small lots with much smaller stops (M15-M5 setups). Longs for me become interesting only above 1.66, where a successful defence of the support area @1.6430 – 1.6340 would be confirmed – in that case initial targets are 1.6760 – 1.6800.

Good luck & have a great week! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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August 12th, 2009 @ 3:49 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everyone!

Since the NFP on Friday cable has been losing ground with every trading session & my waves indicate we are most likely in a larger corrective move targeting the key 1.59 area in the next week(s). The momentum of the drop is definitely impulsive so I’m looking to sell the pair as soon as it manages to complete a retracement. It’s exactly this retracement i’m interested in for the time being, since the H4 chart is giving more & more signals of an upcoming correction in short-term.

12aug_gu_d1

On the large charts we seem trapped between the key previous res. @1.6618 & the immediate H4 supp. TL broken @1.6545 on the upper side and the key D1 TL & horizontal supp. @1.6300. On D1 chart this area is a “no man’s land”, which means bullishness in mid-term is already under attack. An indecisive doji right @ the 60MA on D1 further increases the sentiment of balance, which in my opinion favors a short-term retracement up. Whatever the outcome of the current short scenario, the bears need to confirm their commitment by defending the 61% fib of the current drop to confirm a continuation of the rally down to the 1.60-1.59 area.

12aug_gu_h4

On this background, the H4 chart has turned neutral yesterday & now bullish signs are starting to emerge on the indicators (Trix & RoC are now signalling correction). Since the momentum clearly slowed down since yesterday’s London session I see 2 probable scenarios for today:

– a descent to 1.6420 – 1.6380 sometime in the next 2 hours (currently GU is trading @1.6480) which may turn out to be a spike – that’s my signal to buy cable aggressively & continue to add as the trade progresses towards a final target of 1.66.

OR:

– a slow move above 1.6520 before London open, followed by moderate bullish momentum up to approx. 1.6570-1.66 -> this will further emphasize that the current bear move is no mere pullback & we’re set to see prices below 1.62 by the end of the week.

H1 is currently flat with M15 mixed, both giving moderate bullish signals ONLY above 1.6520. As a result I am flat for now & looking to enter longs on either of the 2 scenarios mentioned above.

Good luck! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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August 7th, 2009 @ 6:17 am by Mihai Marinescu

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7aug_gj_m30

Hi everyone,

While the bigger picture is now losing its bullishness (but technically still in an ascending formation), shorter-term we saw the development of an impulsive bearish wave yesterday on GBPJPY. The pic on M30 chart looks like a retracement is due, as we currently have all the necessary ingredients:

– A clear 1-2-3-4-5 formation (162.37 – 159.46) on M30 – H1 now looking complete (divergences on RoC & stoch right at the lows of W3 & W5.

– M30 TL broke @160.00 & now we are trading above this TL (159.98 at this time)

– first wave of the correction may be complete already (159.46 – 160.26), which makes the current push down a possible wave B of the ABC wave targeting approx. 50% fib of yesterday’s drop (also previous support)

– According to the waves 159.80-159.90 offers good long opportunities with tight stops @159.40. Once this level is taken out the pattern is invalidated.

Good luck!

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August 4th, 2009 @ 6:20 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everyone!

Cable has been nicely bullish lately & the top @1.7000 should not be a major one. I personally don’t believe in major resistances @ round numbers, which is why my bigger picture is definitely bull. However I can’t help observing signs of trouble that may disturb the bulls’ joyride today, at least for a short while. Just the plain facts, as always:

4aug_gu_h4

First, my H4 indicators are turning back down indicating correction is near or already under way. RoC is already in bear mode while Trix is about to give a bearish crossover with its moving average (first signal of correction/reversal). Im not thinking of a big drop, just a brief touch-and-go in the 1.6820-1.6790 area (with potential continuation if the bears really have something important to say).

4aug_gu_h1

H1 is heavily divergent (RoC & stoch) while M30 chart is giving me a potential MA bearish setup about to be confirmed. This short-term picture is giving the bears some temporary fuel to diminish the bull pressure -> but they need to start right away, as a move back towards 1.7000 might see violent burst ย all the way to 1.72.

4aug_gu_m5

Finally, while the M15 chart remains a clear bull so far, M5 gives a possible low-risk short opportunity I will try to take later in London session, if confirmed. I’m waiting for the bullish response to the current 1.7000 – 1.6924 move down, which should push the MAs to cross over again to the upside (16950-1.6970). Once this happens, an opposite M5 crossover (bear) would be my signal to short with tight stop (not more than 30 pips on the current setup), target in the lower 1.68 area. If instead ย there’s a swing failure right @ the 60MA on M5 (1.6945) ย this could work just as well. However, any failure of the M5 MAs to cross back down would keep me away from shorts & even signal that I should join another round of bullishness (also a low-risk trade if taken early, target 1.7145 – 1.72).

Whether short or long let’s try to keep our risk low & stay open for whatever London session will bring ๐Ÿ˜‰

Good luck!

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July 30th, 2009 @ 5:25 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi guys,

For today just a brief outlook of GU as I see it now before London session:

30jul_gu_h1

On H4 my indicators are turning flat, with slight bearish bias indicating correction but not necessarily reversal back to longs. We are sitting on a key H4 supporting TL @1.6350 & so far it looks like holding. I will be playing the retracement scenario today, buying small for targets up to 1.6480. That is the limit of the upside as far as I’m concerned, at least for today (which doesn’t mean i enter short but I will be exiting longs & stay out). H1 is so far supporting the correction plan with divergences on RoC & stoch while MA’s turn bullish right as I write this. The MA system on M15 gave me the entry @1.6390, stop is now 6368 – however I will need this trade to advance fast in the next hour to get me off the hook.

Elliott-wave-wise I am seeing this move as a flat correction started @1.6346 – the current bullish wave if confirmed & sustained should be the last leg up before an aggressive drop (W3 red on H4).

Good luck! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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July 28th, 2009 @ 5:23 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everyone!

As the market is slowly going towards a breakout point in most majors (it spends most of the time in a range, but not ALL the time!), I just wanted to signal a possible long-term opportunity that can arise around the current levels on GBPJPY. I’m looking to make a move & sell GBPJPY somewhere in the 1.57 area IF AND ONLY IF I get the right signal in the next few sessions. Here’s what I have in mind:

28jul_gu_w1

First, on the W1 chart we can see that the momentum of the move from 118.80 to 162.58 is obviously broken, and the trend line supporting that rally broke @153. For the last month, the move that broke the trend line was also retraced (check D1 chart) & now price is re-testing the same broken TL around 157-157.50. For me, this is the key area for SMALL shorts with long-term aim. Could this be the last push up before the REAL drop, just like it happened before, in 2007? Remember, history does not repeat itself but it can teach us a lot through its cyclical nature…

28jul_gu_w1b

I hope it is well understood that I am not suggesting shorts YET, but if short-term charts are giving short signals that conicide with this longer-term scenario, wouldn’t it be nice to hold on to some positions with potential for long-term rallies, while only risking an intra-day stop? ๐Ÿ˜‰

28jul_gu_d1

D1 is currently divergent, with a nice double top @157.38, but the bullish trends on D1 & H4 continue to be bull @ the time of this writing. Maybe the time to shoot has not come yet. Nevertheless, my H4 chart only needs 155.20 to turn my indicators bearish & confirm the double top. I’m planning to put on my first short (half lot) around that area & add later down @155.00 & 153.00 for a nice big target (i’m thinking 140.00 & below). Another possibility would be shorting higher up @157.50 or at a spike above this level, with nicer R/R but higher risk. In any case, I will need my M15 & M5 to turn bearish before shorting, no matter how aggressive the level may be. While M15 & M5 are bullish (like they are right now) I cannot even short for a small target.

Finally, what if the bear setup is never confirmed? The 157.50 will probably turn into support, & the bulls can continue their joyride up to 163 first, then 178-180, where I see another possible turning point. For me the bearish setup will fail as 158 is broken on H4&D1 – from there I will start looking up once again.

Good luck! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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