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Articles by Chris Hall

January 12th, 2010 @ 2:45 pm by Chris Hall

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Update ::

Youtube Video Explaining Trade Plan:  [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJUc1gVN9Y[/youtube]

Blog Article: EUR/CAD Trade Plan off a Harmonic Butterfly

Start moving positions to breakeven… at this point you should be up about +232 pips on the first lot and possibly if your second got hit around +351 …  we were a few pips off from getting our second lot triggered but heard some of you took it a bit early so would advise you move both at this point to breakeven and lets see where this euro/cad can take us…

From now on its all about money management since the “risk” management was executed.  Now its all up to you on if you want to use trailing stops or manual stops or targets.

Good work guys!

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January 7th, 2010 @ 10:51 am by Chris Hall

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Here’s a decent little harmonic play for those not wanting to stare at the charts every day to watch this move.  Its on a daily chart and it took pretty much 6 months to be formed.  The good thing is that the more candle sticks it takes to form, typically you get better structure out of the pattern which can lead to a more probable trade.  So lets get right down to it an analyze this trade:

EUR/CAD Daily Butterfly Pattern

Stop: 1.4420

Entry:  1.4813, 1.4713, 1.4555  (avg, 1.4706)

Targets:  1.5206, 1.5974, 1.6069

Risk vs Reward:  1:2

Holding Period:  ~3 months

So we have this nice little butterfly with a pretty long prz.  Be sure to adjust your risk based on the height of this prz.  We are currently moving around just outside of the area of highest probability of a reversal so we’ll have to see at this point if we can get some sort of indication that we will be reversing.  But with that being said, ivar (hurst exponent) has tanked and were now seeing some anti-persistence in price.  We are also seeing this potential reversal zone line up with support and resistance which gives us added confidence that we have a statistically higher probability of this trade working out then it not working out.

The only thing you have control over in the forex are your losses, and every trade you place you should assume that its a losing trade before you place it.  Reason being, you need to accept that trade mentally as a loss so that you don’t get so emotionally caught up.  This trade plan are for people who don’t care if they see about -200 pips on their statement to see an expected payout of over +800 … but it will take some time to get there and we’ll have to let it work itself out.  At the point that it would hit our stop would also give us valuable information which is why our stop will go there to start.  But this pattern also agree’s on the weekly time frame which we are still within the boundaries of the prz.  You could try to time this buy looking for harmonics on 1H and 4H timeframes as well to try to increase your chances of a reversal.

Over all, not a bad trade setup for a daily timeframe!  Want to get alerted to more of these patterns, you can join us in the trading room here: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/rooms/fxgroundworks.php

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November 20th, 2009 @ 4:09 pm by Chris Hall

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Don’t forget to leave your comments below, I would love to hear back from you guys and your own experiences about your journey and the most valuable lessons you have learned over the years.


I have often talked to people on the phone who have just lost a bunch of cash in the forex market.  One comes to mind of a gentleman who took out a bank loan of around $120,000 USD and within one year had his trading account up to 250,000.   Although, this wasn’t a success story because as he starts telling me how he got the account that high, you could hear his voice start to change as you just knew what he was going to say next.  And then he said exactly what I was expecting… “But this last year has been horrible, I’ve given all my profits back and now I only have $1,000 left in my account.  Its only now I realize that I know nothing where before I thought I knew it all”.

One of the worst experiences a forex trader can go through is actually making money at the beginning.  Reason is, you develop a pretty big ego, you think your smart, you gloat about your winnings, and you have zero respect for a trade plan, because you think you know better.   So for those who started off this way, its going to probably take you 5 times as long to undo all those old habits before your able to take a clear approach to the market and be successful over the long term.

Now, for those who are losing money, or in the process of losing money, there is hope for you.  That’s because you’ve already been to the bottom and hopefully you will see this and bounce.  If you still are not changing what you are doing and chasing after the market while your taking over leveraged trades and not managing your risk, then perhaps you have a bit more learning to do, or money to lose… but at some point, deep down in each and every one of us, you can change, but for some, the losses need to be bigger for us to get the point.  But more importantly, you will gain respect for the market!

So no doubt I’ve ruffled some people by now, and I apologize, my intent is not to make you seem like conquering the forex is impossible, hard , or to justify your losses.   But there should be a few key take away items that I want you guys to really think about over the weekend:

1)  Have I hit bottom, so low, where changing the inner thought process of trading is actually possible?

2)  Can you go on in your trading career realizing no matter what method you trade,  taking to much leverage will kill your account and not managing your risk (because that is the only thing you can control) will ultimately lead to your failure.

3)  Have you learned to respect the market?

And now that I’ve gone through most of the hard news… for those of you that have been here, that have probably seen a lot of truth into this post… congrats!

But for those of you who aren’t quite there, most of the people that trade the forex give up before they have an opportunity of success.  They go to a system, try it for a month and expect to be an expert.  Don’t give up… part of why the statistics of a forex trader are so high is NOT because people can’t do this, its because they give up before they are able to be successful!

You have chosen a hard road, but one I believe many of you can accomplish, and the rewards will be plenty!

Chris
Harmonic Trader & Mentor @ FXGroundworks

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November 18th, 2009 @ 3:58 pm by Chris Hall

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Good day!  So I thought I’d post an update to some of the trade calls and discussions that we do here on the blog.  We had managed to get filled on the USD/CAD (green line)  pair and hit our target (yellow line) before hitting our stop (red line).  This was outlined on our previous post:

Can You Expect The Unexpected?

We had successful turned out of the PRZ zone and headed up to our first target in which we took our first lot off … we then continued to hold a lot hoping to reach the higher targets but we got stopped out at break even on our last lot.  So total pips taken from this trade was 182 pips.

Now, lets get a few things straight.  I didn’t know this was going to happen… but, the odds, and the probability of us being right was higher then being wrong.  So with that in mind, we take the trade knowing that over time we are going to be more right then wrong.  And isn’t that the whole point?  So congrats for those of you who play harmonics and took this trade… you did well.

182 pips secured from the USD/CAD trade

182 pips secured from the USD/CAD trade

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November 18th, 2009 @ 4:19 am by Chris Hall

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There are lots of reasons to be bullish gold or silver but you would be foolish if you were looking to be buying gold while its sitting at an all time high.   But where can one find an opportunity in the metals? How can you take what all the reporters are talking about and make money from metals?  Simple answer, you short.  Now, now… don’t get your panties in a knot.  Long term we are very much bullish gold and silver, but lets have a look at specifically silver and where we stand today.

Bearish Bat pattern on Silver

Bearish Bat pattern on Silver

So you can see here from the chart, we have a decent looking bearish bat pattern.  This is of course a weekly chart and thus the medium term potential of the trade.  This is for the trader who likes the longer patterns, who can live with a trade being on the table for a month or two and be able to leave it alone.  Its not in everyone’s personality to be able to do this, especially if your a short term trader.  But lets look at the numbers: Read the rest of this entry »

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November 11th, 2009 @ 4:47 am by Chris Hall

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Hello traders,

I’ll introduce myself further on my first webinar, but I wanted to get this blog post out there to give you a glimpse of my trading style.  I trade with zero indicators, and purely by harmonic patterns using probability, gaming theory, chaos theory etc..  that are naturally found in our world and nature around us.  Since these patterns are discovered (not created) they provide some powerful studies with a vast opportunity where probability is on our side.  Very rare will you see me use a tool that wasn’t verified in nature and the world around us.

And on that note, lets look at the USD/CAD daily chart for those longer term traders.  You can see here we have a bullish Gartley pattern that has shown itself, and we are about to go into a potential reversal zone that stretches down from 1.0489 – 1.0421 which gives us a 68 pip entry window.  A common fib retrace of a 61.8 or 78.6 fits nicely into the prz giving us an entry around 1.0413 and 1.0362 with stops just below the bottom of the prz at 1.0313.  An average risk of about 70 pips and a potential first target +203 pips away giving us a risk vs reward of 1:2.9.  Anytime I can risk 1 pip and gain 3, i’m all over odds like that.

Decent Risk vs Rewards of 1 : 2.9

Decent Risk vs Rewards on the USD/CAD

But one must ask, what’s the probability?  In the last 100 years using contracts in different markets to reach that far back, we have about a 75% probability of being correct.  But lets look at the reasons why.  Not only are we seeing a bullish pattern, we are also visiting what could be the beginning of an upwards channel.  So not only do we got a fib retrace around a 61.8 or 78.6, but we also got a bullish harmonic pattern, and an upwards channel pattern.  Really got the odds, so we like this trade, if for nothing else, but a great gain for such a small stop.

Some might ask, what if we don’t get filled on our two entries?   The easy answer is you move on to find a new setup.  If you have to risk more then you can possibly gain (realistically) then its not worth taking the trade.  Most people have the impression that they can sit down at their computer and make money from the market.  However, most of those people do not last long.  Those that can make a career out of it always realize you can’t take from the market, you can only accept as much as the market is willing to give you.  More on that in another post…

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