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2013 October

October 1st, 2013 @ 5:00 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase challenging 0.9000 psychological level which could be a strong support that need to be clearly broken to the downside to continue the bearish scenario with nearest target seen around 0.8930. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9060 followed by 0.9100.

usdchfhourly

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October 1st, 2013 @ 1:52 am by Mark De La Paz

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Gold
Resistance: 1331.50 moderate / 1337.70 moderate / 1344.24 minor
Support: 1324.69 minor / 1319.15 moderate / 1313.36 minor

After an earlier attempt to rally past the daily EMA lines Gold appears to have given us a lower high failing to stay above the daily EMA’s in the Wellington breakout seeing a follow through drop for the rest of Monday’s trade. From indicators we have a bearish bias to support the EMA rejection with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s under the zero line though marginally flat above its signal. From the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping and the hourly charts showing the same configuration. Despite the mixed signals our preference is to look for a rejection from the resistance in line with the lower highs from the daily charts. Consider shorts on shooting stars with long wicks above the daily pivot at 1331.50 or coming off 1337.70.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6216 moderate / 1.6239 minor / 1.6308 moderate
Support: 1.6172 moderate / 1.6131 moderate / 1.6095 minor

After spending much of the day in a range play, Cable pretty much established the days range on a bullish breakout early in New York trading. Daily indicators shows a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought areas and macd’s crossing backup after staying flat below its signal. Daily EMA’s have consistently been bullish with nearly steady gaps between the different lines. Note we are expecting UK data again, with Manufacturing PMI set for release underscoring the trend of market beating results from the UK. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in the 4H picture stochastic looking to push overbought while macd is rallying. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. For now we prefer looking for continued base building just above the daily pivot though for an entry we will be straddling any tight congestion by the time European markets open.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9338 moderate / 0.9354 minor / 0.9375 moderate
Support: 0.9312 moderate / 0.9285 moderate / 0.9264 minor

Aussy managed to close its bearish gap from yesterdays open and saw a follow through rally for the play the daily pivot. In the end we pulled back in New York midday trade for along wick but we also have a decently sized real body. Among indicators we are mixed as daily stochastic has just come out of oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Note we are coming off the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the September rally and the daily EMA lines while the previous inverted SHS pattern remains valid for a target of 0.9590. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals from macd and stochastic in both the hourly and 4H picture. From the calendar we have had more bullish numbers as manufacturing for Australia swings back into expansion while we face retail sales numbers and a rate decision from the RBA. For now we prefer looking for follow through gains off the Fib bounce use a push through 0.9338 as a bullish entry.

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