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2013 April

April 1st, 2013 @ 8:27 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive last week. I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy but price is still in a bullish correction phase in nearest term testing 1.5250 – 1.5300 area. On the downside, we need a clear break at least below 1.5150 to interrupt the current bullish correction testing 1.5100.


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April 1st, 2013 @ 8:24 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped below 93.50 earlier today. This fact is a threat to the bullish scenario. My major technical outlook remains bullish and I still prefer to buy on dips but nearest term bias is bearish testing 93.00. Immediate resistance is seen around 93.85. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but need a clear break and daily close back above 94.50 to potentially end the current bearish correction phase and continue the bullish scenario.


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April 1st, 2013 @ 8:19 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF regained its bullish momentum last week topped at 0.9552. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9600. Immediate support is seen around 0.9465. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9400 but overall I remain bullish and still prefer to buy on dips.


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April 1st, 2013 @ 1:41 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD Daily ChartResistance: 1.2814 moderate / 1.2843 minor / 1.2876(81) moderate
Support: 1.2793 moderate / 1.2748 moderate / 1.2680(91) strong

With a long weekend in Europe we have markets with a slow start though Euro may be ready for another drop following thursday’s pullback to just under its breakout point Wednesday, 1.2830. From indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold levels for the moment while macd has already crossed lower and prices under the daily EMA lines. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic dropping in 4H charts while macd is heading up. Hourly indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold. Given the holidays we prefer not to take breakout trades, consider shorts coming off the 1.2876(81) region or 1.2814 during the European session.

USDJPY 4-Hour ChartResistance: 94.47 minor / 94.69 minor / 94.92 minor
Support: 94.23 minor / 93.93 moderate / 93.51 minor

The previous has shown 93.93 to develop into a good support area with the daily charts showing long tails reaching to the said price. For today we have Tankan survey results to watch out for at 2350GMT with consensus forecasts calling for an improvement with the Large Manufacturing Index expected at -7 from -12 while Non-Manufacturing is seen improving to 8 from 4. Daily indicators continue to have a confluence of bears with macd dropping and stochastic poised to cross lower though price action suggests a bottom has been established. Note we have a BoJ meeting on Thursday with the new chief Kuroda likely to start QE programs. Intraday we have 4H stochastic pushing overbought inline with the bullish macd while in hourly charts we have stochastic reentering overbought areas underscoring the developing up trend. We prefer waiting for the Tankan results with good news a possible buy on dips to the 93.93 floor in anticipation of Thursdays BoJ MPC results.

GBPUSD Daily ChartResistance: 1.5219 moderate / 1.5262 strong / 1.5320 minor
Support: 1.5185 minor / 1.5140 moderate / 1.5092 moderate

After Thursdays surge we have Cable with a ‘doji’ candle in holiday hit Friday trade for a lower high in the daily charts even as we see prices just under the key resistance level of 1.5262, the range floor from the second half of 2010. Note we have a hanging man among the weekly candlesticks while daily indicators has stochastic heading for 80 and macd still pointing up. In the lower time frames we have a new confluence of buys as 4H stochastic crosses up while the macd line remains above the signal though flat. Price charts though suggests a 4H head and shoulder has developed. Hourly indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic crossing lower inline with the macd. Given the presence of a key resistance level and a prior rejection from 1.5262 we prefer looking shorts coming off 1.5219, preferable off 1.5262 with tight stops above the said price.

AUDUSD 4-Hour ChartResistance: 1.0425 moderate / 1.0451 minor / 1.0494(00) psychological
Support: 1.0388(99) moderate / 1.0343(50) moderate / 1.0315 minor

Aussy saw a pullback mid week from the previous for a bearish harami at the close Friday. Still we have prices remaining above the daily EMA lines, the 21D EMA at 1.0388 while indicators show a stochastic already oversold though macd has a new bear cross at the daily scale. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias with 4H stochastic showing a bullish divergence as price charts remained flat while macd is beginning to cross higher. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s beginning to open up while stochastic is crossing higher. Note from the Fundi picture we continue to see argument for a stronger Aussy as policy remains neutral to hawkish and hard data improves. This being the case we prefer a buy on dips for another surge to the swing highs. Consider longs off 1.0388(99) with stops tightly at 1.0375.

EURAUD 4-Hour ChartResistance: 1.2307 minor / 1.2340 minor / 1.2387 moderate
Support: 1.2269 moderate / 1.2225 moderate / 1.2198 strong

EURAUD saw a huge sell-off in the previous week offsetting a prior weekly hammer to see lows just above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the rally from July last year. Long-term charts should be well supported at 1.2198. From indicators we have a confluence of buys in the daily charts with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd has just crossed up. Note we have just seen poor Chinese PMI figures at 50.9 vs 51.6 consensus, this is currently weighing on Aussy sentiment. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals as 4H stochastic heads lower while macd is rising. Hourly charts are the opposite with macd’s heading down and stochastic trying to cross up. Despite the current market action we still prefer looking for a bearish EURAUD as the Aussy benefits out of the more neutral stance of the RBA while the Euro once again becomes embroiled in the debt issue. Consider shorts from under 1.2307 preferably 1.2387.

EURJPY Daily ChartResistance: 120.40 minor / 120.87 moderate / 121.49 minor
Support: 120.00 psychological / 119.51 minor / 118.68 moderate

We have EURJPY nearing the completion of a daily, even weekly double top, with a trigger at 118.68 while indicators show EMA lines with dead crosses and a bearish macd while stochastic for now has come-off oversold levels. In the lower time frames we have a bearish stochastic while macd is poised to cross lower. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic pushing oversold while macd is already under the zero line. Gor now we prefer the sell-side of EURJPY looking to complete the double top pattern in the daily charts though caution is advised as we near Thursday’s BoJ MPC meeting the first where Kuroda will be presiding given the risk of a QE announcement.

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