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2013 February

February 13th, 2013 @ 8:35 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as stays inside the bullish channel my overall technical bias remains to the upside but need a clear break and daily close above 1.3485 – 1.3500 to potentially end the bearish correction phase testing 1.3600 or higher. On the downside, we need a clear break back below 1.3430 to keep the bearish correction phase remains strong testing 1.3350/00.

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February 13th, 2013 @ 8:34 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 1.5571 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5674, formed a hammer formation on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bearish outlook as a part of the false breakout bearish scenario but the hammer formation gave a potential upside pullback warning especially if price able to make a clear break and daily close above 1.5700 retesting 1.5800. On the downside, we need a clear break below 1.5571 to keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 1.5500 or lower.

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February 13th, 2013 @ 8:32 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday and hit 92.81 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 93.60. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 94.00 or higher. Immediate support is seen around 92.81 (current low). A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 92.50/00 but any downside pullback now is normal and overall I remain bullish.

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February 13th, 2013 @ 8:31 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had another insignificant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. Important intraday range to be closely watched is seen between 0.9200 – 0.9150. A clear break and daily close above 0.9200 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 0.9250 or higher. On the other hand, a clear break and daily close below 0.9150 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9100 or lower. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario.

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February 13th, 2013 @ 1:42 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
AUDUSD Daily ChartResistance: 1.0344 strong / 1.0368 minor / 1.0386(89) moderate
Support: 1.0321 minor / 1.0296 moderate / 1.0275 moderate

With the huge rally in Aussy Tuesday we have a bullish engulfing in the daily candlesticks that has taken prices to its weekly double top breakout point. Thus far we have seen very quiet trading in Asia, exacerbated by the upcoming US State of the Union address. From indicators we have daily stochastic heading and macd’s bottoming out while our key resistance at above 1.0344 is a combination of the 200D SMA and 21D EMA at 1.0386(89). Intraday charts has a doji thus far in the 4H candles with stochastic overbought and macd rising. Hourly charts are similarly bullish among indicators though price action suggests a loss of momentum. Note the longer it takes to push past a strong resistance with oscillators overbought the greater the possibility of a bear market. For now we prefer remaining sidelined with the US State of the Union address though if prices remain unchanged afterwards we will suggest shorts off 1.0344 with tight stops above 1.0361.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD Daily ChartResistance: 1.5675(80) moderate / 1.5704 minor / 1.5740 minor
Support: 1.5645 minor / 1.5631 moderate / 1.5572 moderate

The turn-around in New York trade saw Cable closing with a hammer, a long tail sticking out under the 1.5645 region. Among indicators we continue to see mixed signals in the daily picture with stochastic heading lower and macd’s flat above the signal line. Note over the last two weeks whipsaw action in GBPUSD has seen prices pulling back to the 21D EMA lines repeatedly while still generating lower lows. In the lower time frames we have 4H macd poised to cross higher while stochastic is overbought. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is heading up. For now we are waiting for a push past 1.5675(80) before taking the buy side for a rally to the 21D EMA at 1.5772. The 21D EMA may also be a sell area though not in the same day.

EURUSD
EURUSD 4-Hour ChartResistance: 1.3468 minor / 1.3496(00) minor / 1.3541 moderate
Support: 1.3427 minor / 1.3403 strong / 1.3351 minor

Tuesday saw a big bounce for the EURUSD coming off its 34D EMA, following through monday’s rally and closing above the 21D EMA. Daily indicators has stochastic off oversold levels while macd is bottoming out. Interestingly our bounce is coming off different Fib levels 78.6 for the rally from January 22, or 50 Fib level off January 04. From the 4H picture stochastic is stuck under the 80 barrier with a bear cross in the making while macd is rising. Hourly indicators has a flat macd and a bearish divergence. Price action is indecisive for both hourly and 4H candles. Given the big picture we prefer a buy on dips to the 1.3403 area for a resumption of the previous uptrend. Alternative entry will be on a close above 1.3468.

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February 12th, 2013 @ 9:28 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3300. Immediate resistance remains around 1.3430. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but need a clear break and daily close at least above 1.3485 – 1.3500 to potentially end the bearish correction phase. As long as stays inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario should remain valid with the lower line of the bullish channel as a key support.

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February 12th, 2013 @ 9:27 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD regained its bearish momentum yesterday and hit 1.5572 earlier today. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.5550/00 as a part of the false breakout bearish scenario. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5650/70.  A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5730/50 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario.

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February 12th, 2013 @ 9:25 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY regained its bullish momentum yesterday topped at 94.45. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 95.00. Immediate support is seen around 93.85. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 93.50/30 but any downside pullback now is normal and overall I remain bullish.

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