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2011 August

August 31st, 2011 @ 5:56 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made a disappointing breakout above the triangle, unable to stay above 1.4500 and now back inside the triangle. This fact keeps price in consolidation phase with unclear direction and momentum. A broader look on bigger time frame may refresh our mind while short term bias remains tricky. As you can see on my daily chart below price is still in a major bullish outlook since the bullish run from 1.1875, moving inside the bullish channel but corrected lower from 1.4939. I expected a valid breakout from the triangle yesterday to end the downside correction and to have clearer direction but that didn’t happen. From this point of view, the bearish correction from 1.4939 is not over yet and another downside attempt testing the lower line of the bullish channel is still potential. This is not a good market especially for intraday traders as many false breakout/down and short lived momentum occur. Selling on overbought or buying on oversold area must be tempting for aggressive intraday traders. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.4450. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.4500/50 area, which could open the door for another breakout scenario testing June’s high at 1.4695. On the downside, immediate support area remains around 1.4400 – 1.4350 followed by the lower line of the triangle.

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August 31st, 2011 @ 5:49 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish bias yesterday, moving lower even before touch the trend line resistance and hit 110.43, keep the major bearish scenario intact. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 109.45. Immediate resistance is seen around 110.85 –  111.00. Another break back above that area would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but would give another chance for bullish attempt testing the trend line resistance. The ascending triangle scenario is no longer valid, but any move above the trend line resistance is a threat to the bearish scenario.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 124.85 and now struggling around that area. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 124.85 testing 124.00 before targeting 122.93. Immediate resistance is seen around 125.20. A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 126.00 region but as long as price stays below the trend line resistance the major bearish scenario should remain intact.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bullish rally was stopped by broad US Dollar strength, but as long as price stays above 1.0600 my intraday bias remains to the upside, still targeting 1.0785.

 

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August 31st, 2011 @ 5:37 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD had another significant bearish pressure yesterday, slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. I found some interesting price actions this month, where price tend to go lower after unable to close above 1.6420.  This fact leads to another threat to the bullish outlook, testing 1.6250 – 1.6200 in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.6350/80.  A clear break above that area would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

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August 31st, 2011 @ 5:32 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another insignificant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook where price remains in consolidation phase, moving in a range market. Aggressive intraday traders may take advantage of the current range market by short around 77.50 or long around 76.21 with tight stop loss. A clear break and daily close above 77.50 could trigger further bullish correction scenario testing 78.50 but as long as price stays above 79.55 my major technical outlook remains to the downside. On the downside, 76.21 area has been providing a good/strong support in the last two weeks and price need to make a clear break and daily close below that area to continue the bearish scenario aiming for 75.00.

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August 31st, 2011 @ 5:27 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall still in a bullish correction phase, targeting 0.8275 before testing 0.8550. Immediate support remains around 0.8150. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback but as long as price stays above 0.8000 my overall intraday bias remains more to the upside.

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August 31st, 2011 @ 2:23 am by Mark De La Paz

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After a poor start US markets managed to find itself closing in the plus column though gains for the most part were marginal while in Europe only the FTSE 100 stood out with 2.70% gains playing cath-up with the strong performance monday. For currencies the lack of decisiveness appears to have lead to a pullback day with EURUSD finally getting rejected from its 2-month congestion resistances for the start of possibly  a new down leg while GBPUSD also retreated as Cable appears to have been sold across the board. At this point we will be looking at a preview for NFP later one with US ADP NonFarm Employment Change numbers out at 1215GMT the consensus calling for a 102K read though anecdotal evidence suggests we may likely fall short of the consensus.

USDJPY
Res: 76.80/77.01/77.26
Sup: 76.46/76.18/75.94
We continue to see tight ranging action in USDJPY though prices are once again approaching the strong support at 76.46. Indicators show daily EMA dropping, stochastic is still heading lower while macd is pointing up. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears from the 4H picture, while hourly indicators are also seeing sell signals. Given that we have September and the end of the first half of the Japanese fiscal year rolling in we face greater prospects of intervention for the Yen allowing for better pricing as corporate Japan repatriates overseas profits. For now we prefer looking for buys from just above 76.46, though the lower the better and wait for the eventual verbal intervention spike quite likely the real deal given the new intervention budget.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0685/1.0720/1.0790
Sup: 1.0639/1.0600/1.0547
Tuesday ended up a high wave spinning top to suggest our uptrend for the last three weeks may be at risk of seeing a substantial pullback. Indicators remain bullish with daily stochastic in overbought territory while macd is rising. Note we are still well below the next strong resistance at 1.0790. In 4H charts we are seeing a bearish divergence from stochastic with macd also topping off. hourly indicators has macd dropping while stochastic is also technically bearish. Immediate risk appears to be for a pullback with 1.0600 our strong support as a natural target. We prefer a buy on dips to the 1.0600 area.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6317/1.6362/1.6420
Sup: 1.6273/1.6219(25)/1.6166
After seeing a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern monday, we saw Cable easing off yesterday with GBPUSD back inside the daily EMA lines with stochastic still pointing up while macd is heading lower. From the lower time frames we have more mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd dropping. Hourly indicators see a confluence of buys. We appear to have indecisive GBPUSD charts for the moment though we would like to note that selling interest has been cropping for Cable during the European session. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though Cable may be a sell on rallies during the European session, look for shorts from under 1.6362.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4464/1.4490/1.4532
Sup: 1.4412/1.4384/1.4328
We have finally seen a rejection from the 8-week long range play in EURUSD daily charts with yesterday’s candle turning into a bearish engulfing. We are now looking for a confirmation of the bearish reversal, indicators has daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is topping off. Intraday we are looking at mixed signals with 4H stochastic up and macd’s down. Hourly indicators has macd flat though technically bullish, stochastic are just above the 20 mark. Given the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined though a close under 1.4412 may pave the way for new sell signals and trigger a sell-off to the key support at 0.7328, last weeks congestion floor.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8548/0.8595/0.8655
Sup: 0.8476/0.8434/0.8378(80)
Kiwi saw a pullback towards the close for a long wick though we still managed to close above the 61.8 Fib at 0.8507 with the body of our daily candle remaining substantial. Daily indicators remain in overbought levels while macd is opening up even as EMA’s are beginning to see golden crosses. From the 4H picture we have stochastic with a bearish divergence while macd is topping off. Hourly indicators see a confluence of bears. Given the bearish divergence in 4H charts and a double top in hourly candles immediate risk appears to be for a pullback. We are currently working around the 0.8507 region a close under this on an hourly basis would trigger our double top with pattern target at 0.8457 the next support at 0.8434. Note we have Business Confidence figures at 0100GMT a poor read may trigger our pattern.

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August 30th, 2011 @ 5:06 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. Overall price still maintain its bullish bias by stay above the triangle, although there seems to be a little bit hesitation for the bullish run. As long as price stays above 1.4500 my intraday technical bias remains more to the upside, still targeting June’ high at 1.4695. Immediate support remains around 1.4400 – 1.4350. Another movement back below that area would cancel the bullish outlook even create a bearish view which may force me to change the current triangle approach.

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August 30th, 2011 @ 5:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday and now seems ready to test the trend line resistance and 112.50 region. The ascending triangle bullish scenario still looks strong, ready to challenge the major bearish scenario. A clear break above the trend line resistance and 112.50 region is a threat to the bearish scenario testing 113.40 which could be the early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support is seen around 111.40. A clear break below that area could lead price to a neutral zone in nearest term testing 111.00 – 110.50. A clear break back below 110.50 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong retesting 109.45.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish pullback yesterday and now seems ready to test the trend line resistance and 127.00/30 resistance area. As long as price stays below the trend line resistance the major bearish scenario remains intact, but a clear break above the trend line resistance could be a threat to the bearish scenario even could be an early signal of a new bullish reversal scenario. The trend line resistance and 127.00/30 area is a good place for a short position due to a good risk reward ratio, a tight stop loss above 127.30 and nearest target remains around 124.85.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a valid breakout above the range area yesterday, topped at 1.0678 and closed at 1.0667. This fact is a part of bullish continuation scenario after bounced from the trend line support as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0785 region. On the downside, only a movement back below 1.0600 could stop the current bullish intraday outlook.

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