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2010 April

April 30th, 2010 @ 3:55 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push higher, slipped above 1.3267 area, topped at 1.3277 but still unable to consistently move above 1.3267 so far, keep the bearish scenario intact. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. However there might be other attempts to break above that area today. Consistent move above 1.3267 could change the intra-day bias into a bullish bias testing 1.3330 – 1.3400 region. Although remains a major bias, bearish pressure is limited so far and we need a clear break below 1.3200 area to continue further bearish momentum re-testing 1.3100 region.

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April 30th, 2010 @ 3:46 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price still able to stay inside the bullish channel as the lower line still does a good job preventing further bearish pressure and keep the major bullish scenario intact. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as intra-day bias direction remains unclear. Immediate resistance at 125.35. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 126.30 region. Initial support at 123.50. Break below that area could be serious threat to the bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 144.34 and closed at 144.02. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 145.95 area especially if price able to break above 144.90 area today. Immediate support at 143.10. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 142.00 region and diminish the bullish outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
As you can see on daily chart below, the AUDUSD slipped above the triangle indicating potential bullish scenario. However we need a consistent move above the triangle to confirm the bullish bias. I will pay attention to 0.9345 region today. Break above that area confirms my bullish outlook targeting 0.9381 – 0.9404 region. Immediate support at 0.9268 (current low). Break below that area and a movement back inside the triangle could cancel the bullish scenario in nearest term testing 0.9220 area but overall the main trend remains to the upside.

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April 30th, 2010 @ 3:37 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5340 and closed at 1.5316. As you can see on my h4 chart below, I have made adjustment to the range area. The lower line is no longer at 1.5200, but 1.5128. Overall in medium term of view, we are still in consolidation phase and need a break above 1.5520 to continue the major bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.5390. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5465 region before testing 1.5520. Initial support at 1.5290 followed by 1.5213.

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April 30th, 2010 @ 3:32 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains bullish. As long as price stay above 93.75, we may continue to have upside pressure testing 94.70 region. Break below 93.75 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 93.00. On the upside we need a clear break above 94.70 to continue the bullish scenario towards 95.50.

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April 30th, 2010 @ 3:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the false breakout scenario still potential as price so far able to stay below 1.0888. Immediate support at 1.0760/50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0700 – 1.0680 region. On the upside, we still need a clear break above 1.0888 to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.1000 region.

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April 29th, 2010 @ 5:57 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

Good day koalas.

It is Thursday and remember to finish the week in Green !

Yesterday, we noted that Greece’s rating was cut three steps to BB+ which is BELOW investment grade. Furthermore, S&P believes that the outlook is negative for Greece. Risk aversion was strong and investors dumped their Greek bonds. Portugal received a cut in ratings too.

The EUR/USD recovered above 1.3200.

The S&P 500 recovered too and is currently above 1200 again.

Oil is up at $87+.

Gold remains at around $1168+. This suggests an elevated atmosphere risk aversion as gold is usually in demand during times of economic uncertainty.

***

It was reported today that Greek officials will finish talks with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in the next few days as signs of agreement stopped a major dump off in the bond market that spread through the euro region this week. While this elevated concerns slightly, i will like to remind that the current solution will probably be for the near term. A continued success depends on a fix of the fundamentals. A positive budget is needed. To do that, strict measures must be taken and this may not be received well with the Greek citizens as they are not willing to bear the consequences of poor financial polices.

Over in the US, a lower unemployment claims figure versus the previous release strengthen the opinion that the American economy is on it’s way to a strong recovery. Having said so, home foreclosures are still happening and banks are still being closed.

From a technical point of view, the strong line of 1.3285 retains it’s influence in the market. Do remember that support and resistance lines are never a single pip.

Tomorrow brings us data such as the Eurozone unemployment and the US Estimated GDP.

Bullish momentum may test 1.3285/3360.

Bearish assaults may see the currency pair hitting 1.3200/1.3090.

***

As much as i always love to chat with you the reader, my crazy day work clocked me 15 hours! I am tired and Ms Sleep is throwing a temper. . . Good night!

Trade safely and remember to be green for the week. . .

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Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

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April 29th, 2010 @ 3:37 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, move in range area of 1.3115 – 1.3265 in a volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.3267 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.1.3300/30 region. Initial support at 1.3150. Break below that area should maintain the intra-day bearish bias testing 1.3100 – 1.3080 area.

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April 29th, 2010 @ 3:30 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price is now back inside the bullish channel indicating potential false breakdown scenario which could lead to a bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think I will stay away from this pair for now. Immediate support at 123.40. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 122.35 area. Initial resistance at 125.30 followed by 125.80.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY still able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. The trendline support still does a good job preventing further bearish pressure and keep the major bullish scenario intact. However I think we are still in no trading zone for now. The pair is still in transition phase as we haven’t seen a strong bullish momentum to support my bullish scenario so far. Immediate support at 142.10 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 140.95. Initial resistance at 143.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 144.70 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was able to keep its bullish bias yesterday. The bullish scenario remains intact but we are still in consolidation phase since price still move inside the triangle formation as you can see on my daily chart below. I will keep stay away for now. We need a clear break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Breakout above the triangle should confirm the bullish continuation scenario at least towards 0.9381 – 0.9404 area while a breakdown below the triangle should be seen as potential threat to the bullish scenario testing 0.9000 region.

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