Forex Academy Quick Links:
Language:
English

FX Instructor Forex Blog - For Traders, By Traders

August 16th, 2007 @ 6:30 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

Click here to read the full article.

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 16, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

Today we’ve looked at the longer timeframes almost exclusively because of the positively phenomenal moves in the market this day. Overall, we’ve had some contradictions, some excellent trades setting up, currencies reaching their long-term objectives, but not much of a trading day. The overall trend as of now seems to the rallying USD. All the majors are in a major retracement.

Lets start with the EUR. On the EUR/USD daily chart, the pair retraced phenomenally over the last week. Reached our Andrews Pitchfork which we used to plot the channels and give us an idea about the targets, along with Fibonaccis. Reached the lower median line of the APF, with momentum changing towards the downside.

On the GBP/USD daily chart, again, the APF drawn from a lower timeframe, with price objective almost reached. Currently waiting for it to conform. AUD/USD showed major moves on the Weekly charts. NZD/USD had similarly huge moves. If EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are heading down, then the USD must surely be rallying!

USD/CHF is obviously on a roll. Today was a retracement day. After such big moves, we are still expecting a target of 1.2355 and further confirmations to go long.

We have been Long in CAD/USD, which is usually the leading indicator for a change, based on Divergence on the Daily timeframe. The price made the required pullback, with price breaking the pullbak trendline; Today specifically, we took some profit, closing off positions on the CAD/USD, because we had some a confirmation of some retracements, and price stopped precisely at an APF level which was also a resistance zone. Plus we had some Fibonacci resistance levels from the last pullback, at 161%, a very strong resistance level. Still expecting some consolidation in the CAD/USD, but the overall trend is still up.

USD going really strong, if you look at the charts of the dollar index, has been rallying quite strongly. The only currency that has defied the odds is the USD/JPY. We would have expected it to rally as well, but it has been giving phenomenal moves down. A huge day for the the Japanese Yen. The only thing we could think of in the Live Trading Room was an unwinding of the carry trades. It is not only the USD/JPY either – the JPY has grown stronger against all the currencies. CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY, and the best of the lot – GBP/JPY. The GBP/JPY had an average move today of about one thousand points! Quite unheard of. Everyone seems to be jumping out of the bandwagon, adding fuel to the fire, and we can expect more of the same. Where it will stop – nobody knows.

We observed at the currencies from a long-term perspective, trying to gauge possible entries, and so far we are still waiting for some consolidation. Tomorrow we will look for more technical aptterns to enter a trade.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPnYbcmjfrI[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 16th, 2007 @ 4:20 am by Bogdan Parascanu

Click here to read the full article.

EUR/USD Technical View

The pair kept its downside momentum intact and pushed even lower breaking the 1.3460 support line and getting as low as 1.3415 in yesterday’s trading session, so far today Euro made a new low at 1.3380 but is has retraced a bit above 1.3400. Looking at the daily chart we can see that today’s price action has formed a doji like candle, if this is going to be case at closing of business later on today it might signal that bears lost some steam and some sort of bigger retracement could happen, with this in mind the pair will need to stay clear of today’s low at 1.3880 and move above the 1.3460 resistance line. If on the other hand the pair moves lower and slips below 1.3365, which is the closest support level, the focus would be shifted towards June 13th low at 1.3260 as the main bearish target and support level.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4000 -round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3750 – round number
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

Support Levels

  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3260 – June 13th Low

Read the rest of this entry »

Click here to read the full article.

August 15th, 2007 @ 3:29 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

Click here to read the full article.

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 15, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

No trades taken today, as the market has been proceeding in a sideways fashion, but we are keeping several pairs in mind for tomorrow, as there could be further development of favorable trading situations.

On the EUR/USD daily chart, we can see that it is still in a clearly defined uptrend. Price is on the lower boundary, suggesting a long trade entry, however we did not go through with a long trade for a very simple reason – the approach of the downtrend was very aggressive, and the daily stochastics have not yet reversed upwards, still pointing down. We expect some sort of further downmove, and a test of the 200ma line, we also have a first support level at 1.3410. This will be the level initially tested by the market in the near future.

Most of the pairs had a similar situation today, and the GBP/USD was no exception. It is also in a similar downtrend, with a well-supported lower boundary of the main upmove channel holding up the price, and the lower boundary of the falling channel that is taking price downwards. All in all, the situation is similar to the EUR/USD in this particular setup – looking like a long, but the aggressive approach over the past 4 days, along with stochastics pointing down, suggests further possibility of downwards movement. We will reassess this situation in the next Live Trading Room session.

Almost same situation on the JPY-based pairs. USD/JPY price action is taking us down as low as 116.69, but then reversing and regaining 60 pips of the prior downmove, which proves that we were supported at the time by 3 main levels:

  1. The 78.6 fib level from the Low on the 6th of March, up to the High on the 22nd of June. The 78.6% level of these fibs is right above price action, currently trading at 117.24. This particular level lies at 117.07;
  2. The second level is the weekly uptrend we plotted on the weekly chart, supporting the price from below.
  3. The third is the lower end of the down-sloping channel taking the price downwards.

The lower channel is supporting the price so far. If we look at the stochastics here on the daily chart, it is pointing downwards, so we do expect some bearish movement, though an upwards move could take place at any time and we have not noticed any divergences, so we are very careful about entering trades that could reverse against us.
GBP/JPY – another interesting layout on the dailies. Fib projection from the 6th of March up to the 20th of July has its 61.8% level right at 232.51, taking the price upwards. We will be waiting for a retest and another move down as the same criteria is present on all the JPY-based pairs, with the stochastics pointing sharply downwards. It doesn’t look like a buying point, though in theory we are in a good place for a long position. We should still skip this trade and look for a retest of the 61.8 fib level later on.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnuGegezGJo[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 15th, 2007 @ 3:52 am by Bogdan Parascanu

Click here to read the full article.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro continued to drop yesterday and in today’s asian session, it has broken the support level at 1.3550 and so far today it got below the 1.3500 and got very close to the next significant support at 1.3460. We haven’t seen such a strong move in a very long time in the Euro, this is stronger than even the leg up we had this summer from 1.3260 to 1.3850. The .50 Fib of the mid June -late July move north at 1.3550 we mentioned yesterday didn’t prove to be taken into account by the bears in the market who pushed the pair lower without looking back, if this momentum keeps up we need to look at 1.3460 as the closest support level followed by December 3rd high at 1.3365. At this point a reversal in the trend will set sights on the 1.3600 round number as a bullish target and main resistance but by looking at the daily charts below the bias is short.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4000 -round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3750 – round number
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

Support Levels

  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High

Read the rest of this entry »

Click here to read the full article.

August 14th, 2007 @ 4:19 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

Click here to read the full article.

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 14, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

Today started off with a USD/CAD Long, which was initiated yesterday @ 1.0510. The trade has been proceeding quite nicely, and we partially took some profit on half of the position, at approximately 1.0586. The rest of the trade is still rolling, with a respectable longer term target around 1.0680. We are leaving the second lot open because the price action has just broken above a falling trendline connecting a high and a new high, in turn conforming into a rising trend channel. We are expecting some retracement backward, and a resumption of the uptrend.

Another trade, also initated yesterday, was a GBP/USD Long. We triggered entry into our position at 2.0131, and the trade went quite well for a while, reaching as high as 2.0154, but then sloped backwards, and when the new day opened below the main support trendline, the price dropped down triggering our stop at 2.0095.

The third intraday trade was a USD/JPY Long, after observing a triangle formation, and a rejection at 118.49, taking the price back to touch the support trendline of the triangle. Upon 1 hour bar’s close above that trendline, and a test that has created a spike at the trendline level exactly, we entered at 117.95, and exited the trade at 118.23, just 1 pip below the new high that has been created earlier, after which price started going back down again. In theory we should expect the same situation to repeat at a retest of the lower trend channel.

We have 1 trade still open to go over tomorrow, so enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3NW6ZrSxY4[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 14th, 2007 @ 3:39 am by Bogdan Parascanu

Click here to read the full article.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro started the week with a move lower, it has broken below 1.3680 and in the final trading hours of Monday’s session it got below the 1.3600 round number which has been proved to be a strong support in late July. The Us dollar seems to recover some ground against the major europeans currencies mostly because of the fundamentals. Looking at the daily EurUsd chart below we can see the next support level at 1.3550 established on June 5th, followed by another support area formed around the 1.3460 level. If Euro regains some strength and starts to push north it needs to break above 1.3600 which has now turned form support into resistance but this scenarios seems to have little chances of actually happening. WE are currently trading just above the .50 Fib line of the mid June late July move up, from 1.3260 to 1.3850, this and June 5th high of 1.3550 should at least slow down the short move and might even start a consolidation period.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4000 -round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3750 – round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High

Read the rest of this entry »

Click here to read the full article.

August 13th, 2007 @ 4:09 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

Click here to read the full article.

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 13, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

Not a very good start to the week. NZD/USD, during the early Asian session, showed a bullish Gartley Pattern, fitting quite perfectly to the price, with fibs aligning ideally. We quite confidently took a Long trade on it, and price initially went up, but then dropped down and we got stopped out.

Subsequent trades are more or less based on triangles today. The failed NZD/USD trade actually gave us a bearish triangle, which we did not immediately notice, which was the reason for our loss.

On GBP/USD, a triangle formation in the late Asian session, beginning of London session had the price breaking a trendline towards the downside, then coming back to retest trendline. The triangle formation executed perfectly. We also used our fib extensions to plan our targets. The 161% target was reached quite accurately, making it a very good trade, with approximately 150 points of profit.

GBP/JPY also had a triangle formation, but our confirmaiton was in the trendline channels. We had an initial trendline, and our triangle got the confirmation of a short when the price came back to retest the middle part of the channel. This was our signal for a Short trade. So we had a trade from approximately 238.70, down to 226.70, giving us about 100 pioints of profit.

Another triangle was on the USD/CHF. As soon as the price broke out of the triangle, we waited for a pullback. As soon as price got support on the upwards triangle line, we plotted our fibs, expecting a 161 target, which was reached for a decent profit of 30 points.  So this trade was based on pullbacks rather than triangles.

All in all, the GBPs gave us excellent trades and one losing trade, which made us learn that we must look for further confirmation from other patterns, and also mind the pullbacks, like the USD/CHF trade.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYGsRFCJ0GY[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 12th, 2007 @ 5:52 am by Bogdan Parascanu

Click here to read the full article.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro traded between last weeks high at 1.3835 and April 27th support line at 1.3680, although it opened with a small gap on Sunday night the pair moved lower not managing to make new highs. 3 out of 5 daily bars were red with Thursday’s one covering almost all the weekly range from 1.3815 to 1.3650. So far the pair hasn’t broken decisively through the 1.3650/80 support area and even if it does break it still has the 1.3600 round number as strong support before we can see a bigger drop and feel confident about the south move. Looking at the weekly chart below we can see that for the past three weeks EurUsd has been in a consolidation period between the YTD high at 1.3850 and the 1.3600 support line, if the pair doesn’t break outside of this range in the following days and considering it has already bounced on Friday it has a fair chance of making another push towards the highs and who knows it might have enough energy to break through July 24th high of 1.3850, if that happens the next bullish target is 1.3900 before the 1.4000 round number. Conversely a move lower will get the pair in an area full of support lines first there is the 1.3600 followed closely by June 5th high at 1.3550 and lower down by the 1.3460 level.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4000 -round number
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3750 – round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High

eur-august-13-07-weekly1.gif Read the rest of this entry »

Click here to read the full article.

Our Global Forex Community

Follow us on Twitter! Join us on Facebook! Watch us on YouTube! Stumble Us!

Advertising

Next Free Forex Webinar

Free Market Commentaries

Advertising

Blog Archive

Forex Links

Educational Partners

The Geek Knows
AgriMoney.com
Traders' Magazine

Finance Blogs Blogarama - The Blog Directory