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October 23rd, 2007 @ 4:36 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro, as most other pairs, opened the week with a gap but than entered into a free fall for more than 200 points, the move was probably triggered by profit taking in different markets and moving them in US dollars. As one can spot on the chart below the pair stopped at a support trendline and things appear to have calmed down, if that is the case the up trend should resume. Now we have a new YTD high to aim for, at 1.4350 established Sunday night and a bullish trend would have that as the first target until the 1.4500 round number. On the south side we have two up sloping trendlines that represent at the moment the support levels one needs to be aware of.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4300 YTD High
  • 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3930 – September 13th high
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

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October 23rd, 2007 @ 2:14 am by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 22, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Today the markets opened the new week with gaps, and we concentrated today’s trading activites on trading the gap. There is a specific way we trade the gap, which works a lot of the time and gives us the direction of the trend, subsequent to the day.

On the NZD/USD, we had a Short trade which we were able to predict due to the gap strategy, going in right after the price broke out of the gap channel, for a good trade.

The AUD/USD had a similar situation, giving a good entry for a Short trade, though not taken. Read the rest of this entry »

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October 21st, 2007 @ 7:15 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 19, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Just one confirmed trade taken today, but a few interesting points for discussion. Fundamentals are beginning to affect the forex market on a longer term basis – yen crosses, carry trades, interest rates, etc. The Dow Jones is having an effect on the yen crosses, the equity markets getting correlated… All these things have to be kept in a deeper perspective.

But we are technical traders – as soon as we find a setup, and it confirms our technical analysis, we go into a trade. More often than not, this works. We look for higher probability trades, with a greater chance of success.

On the GBP/JPY intraday, one of the favorites among the carry trades, we had a technical pattern of a Bullish Divergence, with price making a low and a lower low, Stochastics making initial low below the 20 level. When your second lower low on the price takes place, your stochastics do not have the momentum to carry forward to the oversold zone. This is a very aggressive divergence, signifying that a change of trend is due and a significant reversal could take place. Read the rest of this entry »

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October 21st, 2007 @ 5:15 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro started the week slowly, trading around the 1.4200 level until Wednesday, and pushed higher on Thursday to touch the former high at 1.4300. Friday’s price action managed to print a new high at 1.4320 but the pair closed the week just a few point below the 1.4300 round number. The pair confirmed our expectations of moving higher and it still has some potential to move even further north, like we already mentioned the 1.4500 level is seen by many as a significant bullish target. In the following days we should keep an eye on the current YTD high as the pair might find some resistance at that level, but the overall bias is still bullish and if there are no big surprises we should see a higher high this week. A failure to make new highs will force us to look for support levels, and we can clearly see on the weekly and daily charts the up-sloping trendline where the price will most likely find some strong support.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4300 YTD High
  • 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3930 – September 13th high
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

Read the rest of this entry »

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October 19th, 2007 @ 4:39 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro pushed higher on Thursday and managed to form a new YTD high just a few pips above 1.4300, so far today it got as high as 1.4317 but it started to retrace a bit and is trading now below the 1.4300 round number. The daily chart below indicate that the bullish momentum is still strong and we can expect the pair to move even higher in the following days, the 1.4500 level is still seen as an important bullish target. Like we said the overall trend bias is still bullish but just in case we witness a sharp reversal one should pay attention at the 1.4140 support area which is the closest one before the 1.4000 round number and the up sloping trendline we have on our charts.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4300 YTD High
  • 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3930 – September 13th high
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

GbpUsd Technical View

Cale also pushed higher, it broke above 2.0500 yesterday but it lacked the strength to stay above it and started to slip lower, on the daily chart we can see that today’s bar is an inside bar and until we break out things could go either way; on the other hand the overall momentum is still bullish and if the Sterling can find some additional energy we may see the pair close the week above 2.0500. A close above 2.0500 will signal that the bullish flag we talked about has given the signal for a long entry, and the target for it is around the current YTD high at 2.0650. Conversely a failure to get print new highs or close above 2.0500 will get us once again inside the 2.0460/2.0250 trading range.

Resistance Levels

  • 2.0650 – July 24th High
  • 2.0460 – August 3rd High
  • 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

  • 2.0200 – Round number
  • 2.0000 – Round number
  • 1.9670 – May 21st low
  • 1.9550 – previously tested support
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October 19th, 2007 @ 1:04 am by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 18, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

There were no trades taken today, as the market was really not conducive to any sort of situations we were comfortable trading in. Instead, lets follow up with some of our previous trades that were in the running.

Lets start with our long term USD/JPY, which has gone wrong for our trade. We had been Long on the daily timeframe, based on the breakout of a Triangle Formation. The price did give us a decent move initially, due to whatever fundamental factors were in place, but has since made a turnaround. It went down and took out our trade. Read the rest of this entry »

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October 18th, 2007 @ 3:47 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

The pair found some strength and started slowly to rise, yesterday it printed a green bar on the daily charts and so far today is doing the same thing, on top of that it took out the previous high at 1.4240. Looking at the daily charts below we can clearly spot the next bullish target which is the current YTD high at 1.4300, a move above that will most likely aim for the 1.4500 round number, a level seen by many traders as a reasonable long target. Like we said the overall trend bias is still bullish but just in case we witness a sharp reversal one should pay attention at the 1.4140 support area which is the closest one before the 1.4000 round number and the up sloping trendline we have on our charts.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.4300 YTD High
  • 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

  • 1.3930 – September 13th high
  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High
  • 1.3550 – June 5th High

Read the rest of this entry »

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October 18th, 2007 @ 12:39 am by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 17, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Good day today, with two nice trades taken in the room, both of which went quite well. More important than the profits is the method of the trade:

  • How you analyzed the trade
  • How you entered
  • Where you exited
  • How you determined your trading plan

All are very important to a trader’s success.
The GBP/JPY, which we call the “Formula-1 Race Car” of the currencies, had a Bullish Divergence spotted on the 30 min timeframe. The price was making a low and a lower low. The stochastics was making a low and a higher low. This is what we call an “aggressive” divergence – Class A. This means the first low was beneath the oversold level on the stochastics, but on the second low, it did not have the momentum to come below this level again. It suggests that the price has come down with a reducing momentum, which signifies a change of trend. Read the rest of this entry »

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