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May 15th, 2008 @ 3:56 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 15th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the downside movement of EURUSD seems to be limited as the pair bottomed at 1.5396 but closed higher at 1.5477. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support seen at  1.5440 followed by 1.5390. Initial resistance at 1.5510. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5420
  • S2= 1.5363
  • S3= 1.5331
  • R1= 1.5509
  • R2= 1.5541
  • R3= 1.5598

GBPUSD Outlook
Similar to EURUSD, yesterday further downside movement of GBPUSD was rejected. Again, the pair bearish strength was rejected by daily trend line support. My model is long targeting 1.9510. Immediate support seen at 1.9410 area. CCI about to cross -100 line up on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9395
  • S2= 1.9324
  • S3= 1.9285
  • R1= 1.9505
  • R2= 1.9544
  • R3= 1.9615

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY topped at 105.44, 14 pips higher from my long target at 105.30. My model is mixed. Further upside movement could be very limited now as the pair the seems to have strong resistance at 105.60 area. I also saw a potential  double top formation on daily chart. Immediate support seen at 104.80 area. Initial resistance at 105.60. CCI about to cross 100 line up on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 104.57
  • S2= 104.13
  • S3= 103.70
  • R1= 105.44
  • R2= 105.87
  • R3= 106.31

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday, my long target area for USDCHF at 1.0590 was reached as the pair topped at 1.0599. But this upside movement was very limited as the pair made a fast downside pullback and closed lower at 1.0543. My model is mixed, no trading zone for now. Immediate support at 1.0490. Initial resistance at 1.0599 (yesterday’s high).

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0503
  • S2= 1.0464
  • S3= 1.0416
  • R1= 1.0590
  • R2= 1.0638
  • R3= 1.0677

Have a great day!

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May 14th, 2008 @ 6:52 am by Johan Kriek

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In the US yesterday, headline Retail Sales fell but ax-auto sales suprized the market by gaining 0.5% versus 0.2%. The CPI was released in the UK and followed in the footsteps of the UK PPI figure which posted a surprize gain. Nevertheless, the upsurge we saw after the CPI was released was not sustained and the GBP pulled back and even took out a few lows.

Bernanke also said yesterday that markets are “far from normal” and therefore the FED is still wary about the economic conditions.

Today the BoE will release their inflation report and it may point to further rate cuts and therefore the Dovish tone from them might gain significance once again. In the US session we have the CPI figure. The CPI will definitely have a significant impact on the Greenback and if the figure is higher than consensus, we could see the Dollar strengthen across the board

Herewith the Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. The 60minute trend support line has been adjusted to reflect the most active underlying trend. The hourly indicators are bullish as well, therefore the bullish trading condition. Keep a close eye on the resistance at 1.5470 (yesterday’s 60minute support) and 1.5430/40. Should the latter be violated to the downside the current bullish probability will be no more

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone. The violated Current Trend Support line (seen on the 4hour chart below) has been violated and the violation is now in the process of being confirmed. As soon as the bullish 60minute trend is violated to the downside and the indicators cross bearish, we will have a suitable bearish trading condition on our hands. On the other hand, there is still a risk that price can move BACK INTO the violated Current Trend Channel. Should the latter materialise and price trends above 105.35, the bearish bias will be no more

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Yes, we have a bearish 60minute trend but No, the indicators are bullish and of top of that, price is consolidating. Therefore we would stand back on the Cable until the BoE inflation report is released. A indication of further cuts can send the GBP lower which is the underlying direction of highest probability

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The previous bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and hence the new bullish one we see today. As soon as market rhythm starts to trend higher, the hourly indicators will follow and then only the CHF will be situated within a suitable trading condition.

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/support/webinar.php to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

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May 14th, 2008 @ 2:40 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 14th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the US Dollar was traded stronger against Euro, forced my model to mixed with downside bias as the pair has violated both hourly and 4h trend line. Immediate support seen at 1.5430 area. Initial resistance at 1.5510 area. CCI heading down toward -100 line on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5410
  • S2= 1.5352
  • S3= 1.5275
  • R1= 1.5545
  • R2= 1.5622
  • R3= 1.5680

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling could not maintain it’s gain against Greenback yesterday. The GBPUSD bottomed at 1.9418 and closed at 1.9453. My model is mixed with upside bias as CCI already in oversold area in all three time frames (1h, 4h, daily). Immediate support seen at 1.9430. Initial resistance at 1.9502

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9384
  • S2= 1.9315
  • S3= 1.9213
  • R1= 1.9555
  • R2= 1.9657
  • R3= 1.9726

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY reached my upper target at 104.50, even further, topped at 104.91. My model remains long targeting 105.30 area. Immediate support seen at 104.25. CCI in overbought area on 4h chart, so watch out for a minor downside pullback.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.73
  • S2= 102.79
  • S3= 102.20
  • R1= 105.26
  • R2= 105.85
  • R3= 106.79

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the Swiss Franc was traded weaker against Greenback. My model for USDCHF is long. Immediate support seen at 1.0500 followed by 1.0460. Initial resistance at 1.0590 area. CCI in neutral area, heading up toward 100 line on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0447
  • S2= 1.0363
  • S3= 1.0309
  • R1= 1.0585
  • R2= 1.0639
  • R3= 1.0723

Have a nice day!

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May 13th, 2008 @ 6:41 am by Johan Kriek

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UK CPI closely watched ahead of US Retail Sales

The Retail Sales figure released later today will definitely give traders insight on where the gloomy US economy is heading. Advance Retail Sales might be positive as it is backed by the high fuel prices rather than the rate of inflation. A positive figure therefore might spark a rally in the Greenback.

Due to the higher than expected PPI figure we saw in the UK yesterday, the expectations for the CPI figure which will be released today is higher across the board. If core inflation is higher than expected the Sterling can surge higher past the 1.9620/30 resistance level. Should the CPI be lower, investors can assume once again that the PPI figure did not indicate an aggressive inflationary surge and accompanied by weakness in the UK economy the BoE might still keep a relative dovish stance.

Herewith the Probability Studies of the Major Pairs for today:

EUR/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. The bearish Current Trend Resistance line (Blue line) has been violated and confirmed early in the US session yesterday and therefore the new bullish 60minute trend which indicates the daily direction of highest probability. We also have bullish hourly indicators and as price takes out new highs, ample scalping opportunities can present itself. We might have a great European session on our hands today.

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone. Price violated the bearish 60minute trend yesterday due to the higher than expected PPI figure yesterday but found significant resistance at the violated sideways Current Trend Support line (blue line) at 1.9635 which is now serious resistance. Should price move back into the ranges of the bearish 60minute trend, the bearish probability will resume. Keep a close eye on the UK CPI figure released at 08:30 GMT today as the impact could be volatile and far reaching

USD/CHF – Bearish Trading Condition. We saw some consolidation from a market rhythm perspective yesterday as the Swiss markets were closed. Nevertheless, we have a bearish 60minute trend and accompanied by bearish hourly indicators places the CHF in a bearish trading condition

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bullish 60minute trend has been violated in a consolidative manner, therefore the no trade zone. As soon as we see lower highs and lower lows, the hourly indicators will line up to the bearish side and then we will have a suitable bearish trading condition on our hands. Keep an eye out for the 104.75 resistance as it still resembles the violated support line of the previous Current Trend (blue line) , if we have a bullish breakout price can still head to this trendline to confirm the violation

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/support/webinar.php to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

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May 13th, 2008 @ 1:20 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 13th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Greenback suffered huge losses. EURUSD topped at 1.5569, 34 pips higher than my 1.5525 target. My model remains long. Immediate support seen at 1.5480 area. Initial resistance at 1.5595 area. CCI in neutral zone on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5413
  • S2= 1.5287
  • S3= 1.5209
  • R1= 1.5617
  • R2= 1.5695
  • R3= 1.5821

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Sterling recovered from it’s losses against Dollar. My model goes long as the pair has violated my hourly trend line. Immediate support seen at 1.9490 followed by 1.9450. Initial resistance at 1.9620 area. CCI about to cross – 100 up on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9463
  • S2= 1.9357
  • S3= 1.9272
  • R1= 1.9654
  • R2= 1.9739
  • R3= 1.9845

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday, the USDJPY reached my target at 103.60, even further, topped at 104.04. My model remains long. Immediate support seen at 103.40 area. Initial resistance at 104.50 area. CCI in just cross -100 line up on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 102.93
  • S2= 102.02
  • S3= 101.47
  • R1= 104.39
  • R2= 104.94
  • R3= 105.85

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday USDCHF open at 1.0423, topped at 1.0511 but closed not too far away from the open at 1.0444. It seems like 1.0425 area (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement from 1.0916 to 0.9636 ) is still a key level. My model is mixed, no trading zone. CCI at neutral area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0396
  • S2= 1.0348
  • S3= 1.0291
  • R1= 1.0501
  • R2= 1.0558
  • R3= 1.0606

Have a nice day!

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May 12th, 2008 @ 6:49 am by Johan Kriek

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The most significant fundamentals released later today will be the UK PPI and the Trade Balance. Should these releases be weaker than expected, it could prompt the BoE to continue with their easing cycle. We have nothing from the EuroZone today and due to the fact that we have a Swiss market holiday, price might trend in a technical manner

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. Although the MACD is clearly bearish, keep an eye on the Stochastic as any signs of a cross in a bullish direction will place the EUR in a No Trade Zone although the direction of highest probability is bearish

USD/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and accompanied by bullish indicators places this one in a suitable bullish trading condition. Keep an eye on the hourly stochastic as we might see a bearish cross soon

GBP/JPY – No Trade Zone. The 60minute trend is bearish and should we see new highs today, we might attempt to identify a more active 60minute trend but for the time being we have a no trade zone on our hands

GBP/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. Although the hourly indicators are oversold, the bearish probability is significant and as price develops new lows, the Stochastic will keep on opening up to the downside. Keep and eye on the PPI released today as the trading condition can change in an instant if we see better-than-consensus figures

EUR/JPY – No Trade Zone. Price is consolidating, therefore we must stand back and wait for either new higher lows or lower highs to be defined before we can have a closer look

EUR/GBP – Bearish Trading Condition. Although the hourly indicators are oversold, the bearish probability is significant and as price develops new lows, the Stochastic will keep on opening up to the downside. Therefore the bearish trading condition.

EUR/CHF – No Trade Zone. The previous violated bullish Current Trend Support line has now become resistance at 1.6200 and this might prove a significant level as price is in the process of confirming this violation.

USD/CHF – Bullish Trading Condition. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and accompanied by bullish indicators places this one in a suitable bullish trading condition. Keep an eye on the hourly stochastic as we might see a bearish cross soon

USD/CAD – Bullish Trading Condition. As long as the hourly indicators stay bullish, the bullish probability will stay intact

AUD/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the stochastic is bullish, price is finding support at 0.9350 which is the bullish Current Trend Support line (blue line). Should this low be taken out, a possible bearish trading condition will present itself

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May 12th, 2008 @ 2:33 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 12th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Euro continued to move stronger against Greenback on Friday after the downside movement rejected at 1.5284 on Thursday. My model is long, targeting 1.5525 area followed by 1.5570. Immediate support seen at 1.5420. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5420
  • S2= 1.5358
  • S3= 1.5324
  • R1= 1.5516
  • R2= 1.5550
  • R3= 1.5612

GBPUSD Outlook
On the daily chart, the downside movement of major bearish trend for GBPUSD seems to found strong support from the trend line. My model is neutral with downside bias. Immediate support at 1.9460. Initial resistance at 1.9570.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9475
  • S2= 1.9412
  • S3= 1.9366
  • R1= 1.9584
  • R2= 1.9630
  • R3= 1.9693

USDJPY Outlook
Further downside move of USDJPY rejected at 102.70 area, which is a strong support on daily chart as we can see at least there are 6 days bottomed at 102.60-70 area from 03/03/2008. My model is long, targeting 103.60 area. Immediate support seen at 102.60-70 area. CCI in oversold zone on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 102.32
  • S2= 101.79
  • S3= 100.97
  • R1= 103.67
  • R2= 104.49
  • R3= 105.02

USDCHF Outlook
Friday, The USDCHF broke 1.0425 area, bottomed at 1.0388 and closed at 1.0410. My model is mixed with upside bias as the downside trend line was violated on hourly chart early today. Immediate support seen at 1.0388 (Friday’s low). Initial resistance at 1.0500 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0360
  • S2= 1.0311
  • S3= 1.0234
  • R1= 1.0486
  • R2= 1.0563
  • R3= 1.0612
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May 9th, 2008 @ 6:29 am by Johan Kriek

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No Dovishness from Trichet

The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at 5.00%, which was in-line with the actual consensus and no statements were released as well. Therefore we have to wait until 21 May for the meeting minutes as this will indicate the vote split. Across the Channel, the ECB also kept interest rates at 4.00% which was in-line with expectations. Trichet’s usual hawkish tone (what’s news?) is rather disappointing as the latest fundamentals were definitely weak..

Nevertheless, here are the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bullish Trading Condition. We have a bullish 60minute trend and accompanied by bullish hourly indicators places the EUR in a suitable trading condition. The bearish Current Trend resistance line (blue line) at 1.5460 might halt price for a while or even spark a decline

USD/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. The bullish Current Trend Support Line (blue line) has been violated to the downside and therefore the new bearish 60minute trend. The hourly indicators are bearish which confirms the underlying trading condition

GBP/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. A bearish 60minute trend with bearish indicators places the GBP/JPY in a perfect trading condition

GBP/USD – Bearish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bearish as well as the 1hour stochastic, the MACD must gives us a clear bearish signal before the Cable will be deemed tradeable

EUR/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bearish, the bullish indicators are keeping us out of this one. Wait for the indicators to cross bearish before trading again. Should the 60minute trend be violated to the upside, we will have a bullish scenario on our hands

EUR/GBP – Bullish Probability. A bullish 60minute trend with bullish indicators places the EUR/GBP in a bullish probability. As soon as the bearish current trend resistance line (blue line) is violated to the upside we will have a suitable bullish trading condition on our hands

EUR/CHF – No Trade Zone. We cannot identify a suitable probability as the bearish 60minute trend must still be defined. The fact the indicators are bullish is last nail in the coffin. Wait for either the bullish Current Trend Support line (blue line) to be violated significantly or wait for price to start trending higher.

USD/CHF – Bearish Trading Condition. A bearish 60minute trend with bearish indicators places the CHF in a perfect trading condition. Enjoy!

USD/CAD – No Trade Zone. Price is now trending above the Major Trend Support line (orange line) and as soon as we can identify a suitable bullish 60minute trend, the CAD will be tradeable. For the time being we have to wait for a clear probability to evolve

AUD/USD – Bullish Probability. We identified a new bullish 60minute trend and as soon as the indicators gives us a confirmed bullish cross we will definitely have a suitable trading condition on our hands

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