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June 16th, 2008 @ 8:37 am by Johan Kriek

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We have CPI in the Eurozone today at 09:00 GMT and the US Housing Market Index at 17:00 GMT. These two figures will certainly dictate the direction and movement of the EUR and Dollar respectively. While inflation was the main concern of the G8 meeting this weekend, members did not discuss exchange rates and therefore we have to focus on the inflation figures from the Eurozone today to keep track of the EUR against other pairs

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Trading Condition. The previous bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside, therefore the bullish probability. If price stays above the Major Trend support line and the 1 hour indicators stay bullish, we will have a suitable bullish trading condition

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone. We have bearish market rhythm, bearish 60minute indicators but the bullish 60minute is still intact. Wait for either price to trend higher or for the 60minute trend to be violated to the downside

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Same as the EUR, price violated the bearish 60minute trend and is now trending above the violated Current Trend support. Once the 1 hour indicators cross bullish, we will have a suitable trading condition

USD/JPY – Bearish Trading Condition. The bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the downside and the 1 hour indicators are bearish as well, therefore the bearish trading condition

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

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June 16th, 2008 @ 3:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 16th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Friday, the EURUSD broke key level 1.5370 and bottomed at 1.5302. Technically speaking, this fact should open further downside movement and trigger an early phase for the pair to enter downtrend medium trend towards 1.5170. The pair should maintain to move below 1.5370 and a failure to do so will trigger further upside correctional move. My model remains short still targeting 1.5280. However, CCI already in oversold area on daily chart, so watch out for a upside correctional movement. Wait for confirmation on your indicators/oscillators to find short position and use only tight money management in this phase. Immediate resistance at 1.5450.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5308
  • S2= 1.5237
  • S3= 1.5172
  • R1= 1.5444
  • R2= 1.5509
  • R3= 1.5580

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling made a minor recovery on Friday. GBPUSD closed  a little bit higher at 1.9476. I am not surprise since CCI already in oversold area on daily chart. My model remains mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9430. Initial resistance at 1.9520 followed by 1.9580.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9418
  • S2= 1.9361
  • S3= 1.9314
  • R1= 1.9522
  • R2= 1.9569
  • R3= 1.9626

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 108.38, but with less bullish power than what I expected. However my model remains long targeting 108.70/80. Immediate support is seen at 107.80 followed by 107.45. CCI already in overbought area, so watch out for correctional downside pullback. Only use a very tight money management at this phase. Wait for confirmation on oscillators/indicators to find long position.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 107.76
  • S2= 107.33
  • S3= 107.02
  • R1= 108.50
  • R2= 108.81
  • R3= 109.24

USDCHF Outlook
Friday, the USDCHF continued it’s bullish momentum. The pair topped at 1.0539, higher from my long target at 1.0492. My model remains long, targeting 1.0550. Immediate support is seen at 1.0445 followed by 1.5390.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0389
  • S2= 1.0310
  • S3= 1.0235
  • R1= 1.0543
  • R2= 1.0618
  • R3= 1.0697

Have a great day!

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June 13th, 2008 @ 6:24 am by Johan Kriek

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Germany’s CPI figure will give us insight and maybe suitable confirmation of the Hawkish tone in Euroland. On the other hand we have US CPI out today as well. If the US CPI figure is higher than consensus, the Greenback may strengthen.

Keep in consideration that a period of declining economic growth and high unemployment refers to stagflation. Paul Volker, a previous Fed Chairman, cured the stagflation issue by raising rates sharply. Makes you think what may happen if the US CPI figure is higher than consensus….Happy trading to everyone on this Friday the 13th

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated in a sideways manner and if price takes out the high of 1.5460, we will have a suitable bullish trading condition. Should price violate the new, active bullish Major Trend Support line at 1.5400 and CONFIRM the violation, we will have a bearish probability once again. If the Germany CPI figure does not have any impact, the CPI in the US surely will. We will either have consolidation or serious volatility today

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Price found resistance at the bearish Current Trend resistance line but the bullish 60minute trend is still intact. Should price breach the high of 1.0489, we will have a suitable bullish trading condition once again.

GBP/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. The bullish Current Trend support line has been violated to the downside and the bearish 60minute trend is still intact as well as the 1 hour indicators, therefore the bearish Trading Condition

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bullish probability. The bullish 60minute trend is still intact but the bullish cross on the 1 hour Stochastic is not confirmed yet. Should it be confirmed we will have a bullish trading condition once again as per the Probability Study technique’s rules. On the other hand, if the 60minute trend support line is violated, we will have a bearish probability

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Click here to read the full article.

June 13th, 2008 @ 3:19 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 13th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday EURUSD bottomed at 1.5378, 8 pips higher from my expected short target at 1.5370. After hit the bottom, the pair rebound higher and closed at 1.5450. This fact show us that 1.5370 area is a valid key level at this phase. Today I expect the pair will test the level again. A break lower from that level should trigger further downside scenario towards 1.5280. My model is mixed but still with downside bias. A consistent move above 1.5480 area  could be a violation to the bearish momentum.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5366
  • S2= 1.5283
  • S3= 1.5188
  • R1= 1.5544
  • R2= 1.5639
  • R3= 1.5722

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling suffered a huge losses yesterday. The GBPUSD moved 210 pips and bottomed at 1.9433, almost 100 pips lower from my expected short target at 1.9520. However, my model is mixed with upside bias for today as CCI already in oversold area on daily chart so a correctional upside move might happen on this weekend. I think it’s better for us to stand aside. Immediate support is seen at 1.9433 (yesterday’s low). Initial resistance at 1.9520.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9378
  • S2= 1.9300
  • S3= 1.9168
  • R1= 1.9588
  • R2= 1.9720
  • R3= 1.9798

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair toped at 108.08, 22 pips lower from my long target at 108.30. My model remains long, targeting 108.70. However, pay high attention on support level at 107.45. A move lower from that level could trigger more downside correctional movement. Only use a very tight money management at this phase. Wait for confirmation on oscillators/indicators to find long position.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 107.08
  • S2= 106.28
  • S3= 105.78
  • R1= 108.38
  • R2= 108.88
  • R3= 109.68

USDCHF Outlook
Following the Euro, The Swiss Franc was traded weaker against US Dollar yesterday. My model for USDCHF is long, targeting 1.0492. Immediate support is seen at 1.0375. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0305
  • S2= 1.0209
  • S3= 1.0117
  • R1= 1.0493
  • R2= 1.0585
  • R3= 1.0681

Have a great weekend!

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June 12th, 2008 @ 6:23 am by Johan Kriek

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The recent Hawkishness from the Fed was confirmed with yesterday’s Beige Book and all eyes are now on the US Retail sales later. The Greenback at this stage is finding moderate support and it would still be best to focus only on the technical climate before making a trading decision

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone. Price is finding support at 1.5460/50 and should this low be taken out, we will have to identify a new bearish 60minute trend using the recent lower high of 1.5586. This will ultimately give us a bearish probability. Watch this space


USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. As soon as the 1 hour indicators give us confirmed bearish signals, we will have a new bearish 60minute trend as well as a new bearish trading condition. The Current trend is bearish once again as price does not honor the previous Current Trend’s support line any more

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. A new bearish 60minute trend is still in the process of evolving. Any fresh bearish crosses on the 1 hour Stochastic will give us a suitable bearish trading condition along with the new bearish 60minute trend

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend resistance has been violated, therefore the bullish probability. Should be get a new lower trough we will identify a new bullish 60minute trend. If price moves below 1.9500, we will have a definite bearish trading condition once again

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Click here to read the full article.

June 12th, 2008 @ 4:02 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 12th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Euro recovered against US Dollar, but showing another weakness early today in Asian market. My nearest model for EURUSD remains short targeting 1.5370 which is also a key level. A failure to break down from that level could bring EURUSD opened to 1.5620, while a break downside could trigger movement toward 1.5280.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5476
  • S2= 1.5397
  • S3= 1.5342
  • R1= 1.5610
  • R2= 1.5665
  • R3= 1.5744

GBPUSD Outlook
Similar to the Euro, yesterday the Sterling was traded stronger against Greenback, but showing weakness early today. My model for GBPUSD remains short, targeting 1.9520. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9620. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9527
  • S2= 1.9420
  • S3= 1.9350
  • R1= 1.9704
  • R2= 1.9774
  • R3= 1.9881

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the Japanese Yen recovered against US Dollar. The USDJPY bottomed at 106.56 and closed at 106.82. My model remains long, still targeting 108.30. Immediate support is seen at 106.70 followed by 106.40. CCI in overbought area on daily chart, so another minor downside pullback might happen today. Wait for confirmation on oscillators/indicators to find long position.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 106.33
  • S2= 105.84
  • S3= 105.13
  • R1= 107.53
  • R2= 108.24
  • R3= 108.73

USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc also recovered against US Dollar yesterday. My model for USDCHF is mixed with no trading zone. Immediate support is seen at 1.0300. Initial resistance at 1.0395. CCI in neutral are on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0262
  • S2= 1.0215
  • S3= 1.0123
  • R1= 1.0401
  • R2= 1.0493
  • R3= 1.0540

Have a great day!

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June 11th, 2008 @ 6:30 am by Johan Kriek

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We have the UK Unemployment rate at 08:30 GMT as well as the Fed’s Beige Book later at 18:00 GMT. The Fed’s Beige book will give us insight and maybe additional confirmation about Bernanke’s recent Hawkishness.

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside, therefore the bullish probability. As soon as the violation is confirmed, we will have a suitable bullish trading condition which will most probably last for the whole European Session today. Any new lower significant peaks accompanied by bearish hourly indicators will give us a bearish probability once again, but for now, bullishness is at hand

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend is still intact and as soon as the hourly indicators give us a confirmed bearish cross, we will have a bearish trading condition once again. Keep an eye on the UK unemployment figure later today as it will most likely change/confirm the underlying probability

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone. As we can see, price is trending within the violated bullish Current Trend channel once again (dashed support line) Therefore we can only identify a suitable trading condition if the Bearish Current Trend resistance line is violated to the upside


USD/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. Although the Stochastic is overbought, an overbought indicator within a bullish probability can be misleading. As long as price trends within this bullish 60minute trend, the Bullish Trading condition will prevail

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Click here to read the full article.

June 11th, 2008 @ 2:24 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

Wed, 11th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Euro continued it’s huge losses against US Dollar yesterday. The EURUSD bottomed at 1.5440 and closed  at 1.5456. My model is short, targeting 1.5385. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5520. CCI heading down towards – 100 line.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5379
  • S2= 1.5303
  • S3= 1.5166
  • R1= 1.5592
  • R2= 1.5729
  • R3= 1.5805

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD fell after break my bullish trend line/channel support on hourly chart to the downside. My model is short targeting 1.9460. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9580 followed by 1.9620. CCI about to cross – 100 line down on daily chart, suggesting the weakness of the Sterling.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9451
  • S2= 1.9366
  • S3= 1.9215
  • R1= 1.9687
  • R2= 1.9838
  • R3= 1.9923

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY topped at 107.44, 6 pips lower from my long target at 107.50. However, CCI already in overbought area on all time frames (hourly, 4h, daily) so a downside pullback might happen today. My model is mixed with upside bias. Wait for rebound on oscillators/indicators to find long position targeting 108.30. Immediate support is seen at 106.80.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 106.56
  • S2= 105.79
  • S3= 105.35
  • R1= 107.77
  • R2= 108.21
  • R3= 108.98

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the bullish momentum of USDCHF continued. The pair topped at 1.0438 and closed at 1.0421. My model remains long, targeting 1.0500. Immediate support is seen at 1.0375. CCI heading up towards 100 line on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0314
  • S2= 1.0207
  • S3= 1.0145
  • R1= 1.0483
  • R2= 1.0545
  • R3= 1.0652

Have a great day!

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