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Asian Session Notes 10/31/2013

Asian Session Notes 10/31/2013
Thursday, October 31st, 2013 @ 2:12 am by Mark De La Paz

About Mark De La Paz:

Mark De La Paz Mark de la Paz has been a mentor at the educational Forex portal FX Instructor since 2007 providing live analysis on the impact of economic and geopolitical events on the Foreign Exchange market and other asset classes. Over the years Mark has also been a consultant to HNI’s and have helped setup several brokerages and trading operations for different asset classes in the Asia /Oceania region drawing on his vast experience in the OTC market for both buy side and sell side of the business. You may contact Mark de la Paz at mdelapaz@fxinstructor.com.

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8267 minor / 0.8287 moderate / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8228 moderate / 0.8191 moderate / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday with lows easing to 0.8183, previous false breakout lows in the congestion from late September to early October, only to close with a hammer in the daily charts and long tail. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are still dropping. Note our hammer is bouncing off a previous congestion floor and 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in bothe 4H and hourly picture stochastic for both are seeing new bear crosses after failing to push overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators for its part is pointing higher for both, though also under the zero line. Given the hammer and supports our preference is for a buy on dips to the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.8228.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.8267 minor / 0.8287 moderate / 0.8313 minor
Support: 0.8228 moderate / 0.8191 moderate / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday with lows easing to 0.8183, previous false breakout lows in the congestion from late September to early October, only to close with a hammer in the daily charts and long tail. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are still dropping. Note our hammer is bouncing off a previous congestion floor and 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rally from August 30. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in both 4H and hourly picture stochastic for both are seeing new bear crosses after failing to push overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators for its part is pointing higher for both, though also under the zero line. Given the hammer and supports our preference is for a buy on dips to the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.8228.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6038 moderate / 1.6077 moderate / 1.6114 moderate
Support: 1.6000 psychological / 1.5957 minor / 1.5918 moderate

Cable saw a high wave candle Wednesday to suggest that bearish momentum is faltering as we form a daily double top. Among indicators we have stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping and prices are inside the EMA lines. From the the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals consistent with a high wave daily candlestick. The 4H stochastic is heading lower as macd’s see a new bullish cross while hourly charts has stochastic heading up and macd bottoming out. For now we see little sense of urgency in Cable with the high wave candle merely serving as a warning signal, given the absence of a big external catalyst we prefer playing the extremes. Consider shorts on rallies to 1.6077, 1.6114 or buys off 1.5957, 1.5918.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3738 moderate / 1.3780 moderate / 1.3811 minor
Support: 1.3718c minor / 1.3692 moderate / 1.3669 moderate

As with many of the majors we have a high wave candle in Euro daily charts as bulls and bears read what they wanted from the FOMC statement. Big picture we still view Euro as a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the monthly sell-off from 2011 with the daily fractals objective still untouched the 21D EMA at 1.3669. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is at risk of a bear cross. Intraday we have mixed signals in the hourly picture with stochastic crossing up and macd’s under zero and below the signal line. In the 4H level we are bearish as stochastic crosses lower once more and macd’s are dropping. It appears that markets look indecisive in the near term despite your big picture. As such we prefer a sell on rallies to yesterdays highs or buy on dips from the 21D EMA.

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