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2013 October

October 30th, 2013 @ 6:54 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 98.27 after another failure to break below the trend line support as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 98.50 – 99.00. Immediate support is seen around 98.00. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 97.50 or lower. My major technical outlook remains unclear.

usdjpydaily

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October 30th, 2013 @ 6:48 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday and hit 0.9007 earlier today. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9040 or higher. Immediate support is seen around 0.8980. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8940 which need to be clearly broken to the downside to potentially end the current bullish correction phase.

usdchfhourly

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October 30th, 2013 @ 1:53 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3751 minor / 1.3772 moderate / 1.3793 minor
Support: 1.3703 moderate / 1.3688 minor / 1.3663 moderate

Euro saw a follow through bear market to its Monday fractal with Tuesdays daily close around its lows. This reinforces the notion of a rejection from the 61.8 Fib retracement level of our sell-off in the weekly charts from May 2011. Among indicators we have daily stochastic heading lower while macd is also poised at a bearish crossover, we are looking at market action as mean reversion with the 21D EMA at 1.3663 as our objective. In intraday charts we have sell signals with stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also bearish for the 4H picture. Hourly charts as well points lower with a new bear cross in stochastic joining a bearish macd. For now we prefer shorting with markets in the process of getting a further down-leg a close under 1.3737 may be seen as a bearish entry though we prefer shorts off 1.3751.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6070 moderate / 1.6114 moderate / 1.6149 minor
Support: 1.6017 moderate / 1.5998 moderate / 1.5955 moderate

Tuesday saw a huge sell-off in Cable finally taking out the congestion floor from the previous weeks range play. This pushing GBPUSD well into forming a double top pattern with its trigger around 1.5918, 23.6 Fib retracement of the rally from July lows. Indicators show a confluence of bears as we get a new bear cross in macd while stochastic has pushed into oversold areas. From the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of bears in the 4H picture as stochastic crawls oversold levels while macd is below the zero line and dropping. Hourly charts for their part suggests a new bearish entry with stochastic just crossing lower failing to push overbought in consolidation mode though macd has a new bullish cross. For now we prefer a more cautious approach at joining the bear market waiting for a break of 1.6017, a moderate support. Alternative entry will be a rejection from the daily pivot at 1.6070.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9487 moderate / 0.9508 moderate / 0.9544 moderate
Support: 0.9453 minor / 0.9417 moderate / 0.9388 minor

Following Gov. Stevens statement over the currency early Tuesday, we have AUDUSD with a big sell-off almost a bearish marubozu in the daily picture. For the moment we are in the process of pushing under the 34D EMA with prices already in the midst of your daily EMA lines. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is also dropping sharply. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping below the zero line. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic looking to push back into oversold areas while macd are technically bullish above the signal line though under zero. At this point we are looking for further weakness a push under 0.9453 could be seen as a bearish entry though, alternatively we may also use a rejection off 0.9487. Note we are looking forward to atleast testing the 55D EMA at around 0.9409 though we have 0.9283 as our objective in the near term.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8271 moderate / 0.8313 minor / 0.8331 minor
Support: 0.8228 strong / 0.8191 minor / 0.8157 moderate

Kiwi is at the congestion floor of the September range play, incidentally 38.2 Fib retracement of the August to October rally. Note we view this support as critical a push below it could pave the way for a sharp sell-off if under the context of a bubble imploding in the property market. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is poised to push under the zero line. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is at the signal line trying to bottom out. Hourly charts for their part has just seen stochastic push oversold while macd is above the signal line. For now look for a break of the 0.8228 region to trigger a bear market possibly for the psychological 0.8000.

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October 29th, 2013 @ 10:50 am by William Gilday

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The daily chart is bullish and we have a good ABCD boundary and we have retraced to the 50 Fibb which is C. The a is at price level at 127.88 and B is at 134.95 and the D extension take profit is at 139.31. 10-29-2013 5-45-53 PM EURJPY 1 So on this daily chart we are just waiting for a bullish candle to enter if you trade the daily chart. The 2 Hour chart is in a range and was unable to do an ABCD so we placed a support line at 133.34 and resistance at 134.61. So we will wait for the breakout and see what action we can take as I would like to stay with the trend. The 1 Hour chart has a nice ABCD boundary as A is at 133.86 and B is at 134.93 as we have a C pullback to the 61.8 fibb and looking for the bullish candle to go long to the D extension at 135.59. The 15 minute chart is very ugly as we were able to place a ABCD but to tell you I do not like it I am just waiting to see where it pulls back to and maybe I can enter and take it to the D extension take profit at 134.96. 

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October 29th, 2013 @ 6:22 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 1.3750 – 1.3700 but any downside pullback now is normal and as long as stays above 1.3500 the major bullish outlook should remain valid. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3800. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3850 – 1.3935.

eurusddaily

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October 29th, 2013 @ 6:18 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD was corrected lower yesterday and hit 1.6063 earlier today. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6050 – 1.6000. The major bullish scenario should remain valid and we must see the current short term bearish momentum as a normal corrective move, but note that 1.6259 area could form a double top bearish reversal scenario which would be confirmed by a clear break below 1.5950. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.6140 – 1.6165. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 1.6259 – 1.6300 key resistance area which need to be clearly broken to the upside to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6380 – 1.6500 area.

gbpusddaily

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October 29th, 2013 @ 6:14 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias retesting the trend line and 97.00 key support area. Immediate resistance is seen around 97.80. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 98.50 – 99.00. My major technical outlook remains unclear.

usdjpydaily

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October 29th, 2013 @ 6:08 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday and hit 0.8973 earlier today. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 0.8967 and the hourly EMA 200 as you can see on my hourly chart below, testing 0.9040. Immediate support is seen around 0.8940. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8900 or lower. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

usdchfhourly

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