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2013 July

July 15th, 2013 @ 5:47 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum last week bottomed at 98.28. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 98.00. Immediate resistance is seen around 99.50/60. A clear break and daily close above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but would give another chance for the bullish scenario testing 100.50/80 resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below 98.00 could be an early signal of a bearish reversal scenario testing 96.70.

usdjpydaily

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July 15th, 2013 @ 5:43 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had another indecisive movement on Friday. A quick look at the hourly chart suggests that price is moving sideways between 0.9535 – 0.9404 after the strong bearish momentum triggered by the FOMC on Thursday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction. I still prefer to stand aside for now.

usdchfdaily

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July 15th, 2013 @ 1:31 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.7809 minor / 0.7856 moderate / 0.7884 minor
Support: 0.7768 minor / 0.7741 minor / 0.7706 moderate

Kiwi saw a false breakout Wednesday closing outside the range play from 0.7682 to 0.7856 only to push back inside closing Friday in the middle of ranging market. For the the moment we have daily EMA line capping the upside for Kiwi even as indicators show stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd’s pointing up nearing the zero line. Intraday we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic comes off oversold levels and macd’s head down.Hourly charts are also mixed though this time we have stochastic with a bear cross and macd’s with a bullish crossover. For now with prices under the daily pivot and a rejection from the daily EMA lines our bias will be to ease to the congestion floor at 0.7706. Note we have a possible catalyst for a bear market should the China data be a big disappointment.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3090 minor / 1.3147 moderate / 1.3206 moderate
Support: 1.3055 minor / 1.3006 moderate / 1.2954 minor

Following the spike up on Bernanke’s back tracj last Wednesday EURUSD has been generally stable with attempts to pullback failing seeing long tails in the daily candle Thursday and Friday. Among indicators we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic getting a new bear cross while macd is heading up though still under the zero line. Note we are just above the daily EMA lines suggesting we ought to have a good support zone. From the 4H level we have a mixed view with macd flat under its signal line while stochastic is at risk of a bear cross even as we see lower highs and lower lows in our range play. Hourly charts has macd’s flat at the zero line while stochastic is heading lower. For nowe we prefer looking for a buy on dips as we appear to be building a base for a bounce off the psychological 1.3000 area.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9091 moderate / 0.9130 minor / 0.9187 moderate
Support: 0.9039 minor / 0.9000 psychological / 0.8967 moderate

Friday saw Aussy with a sharp sell-off down to the psychological 0.9000 level though boubcing in New York trade to close off the lows. Daily indicators show EMA lines right on top of the price charts heading lower while stochastic is poised to push oversold and macd at risk of a bear cross. Note we have Chinese numbers to consider at 0200GMT with a possible shortfall in GDP a catalyst for bearish commodity markets. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic heading up and macd’s pointing lower. Hourly charts for their part has macd also heading up and stochastic with its own bullish crossover. That said we will rely more on Chinese GDP numbers for our catalyst with a shortfall potentially pushing us through the key support at 0.9000. Talk has a possible 6.5% to 7.0% while consensus forecast remain at 7.7%.

EURJPY
Resistance: 129.92 minor / 130.28 moderate / 130.79 minor
Support: 129.49 minor / 128.99 moderate / 128.64 moderate

We spent the past week in a whipsawish trade for EURJPY with price action regularly dipping under the daily EMA lines though always closing above them at the end of the day. Note we have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows from the last four weeks. Daily indicators show mixed signals with stochastic heading up and macd’s seeing a new bear cross. From the lower time frames price action has generally been indecisive with a sideways market for both hourly and 4H charts. Among indicators we have mixed signals as stochastic crosses lower and macds head up in 4H charts while Hourly indicators has stochastic poised to cross up and macd’s heading down. For now we prefer a buy on dips to 128.99 S1 in pivots better at 128.64 the congestion floor though we have little expectation of an actual bullish breakout in the near term.

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July 14th, 2013 @ 3:38 pm by The Geek

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Good day forex traders and readers.

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that a strong support laid right below the currency pair. The EUR/USD was receiving bearish pressure due to the US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke suggestion of the possibility of tapering quantitative easing. The accommodative stance of the European Central Bank also added on.

20130714-225217.jpg

Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair did hit a support and climbed right up over a few resistances to test 1.32. This means that the weekly bollinger band support that I mentioned remains.

As the currency pair eases back down, we will need to monitor 1.3 closely to see if the bearish pressure would still be sufficient to push the EUR/USD down. I expect the middle bollinger band on the daily chart to offer some support.

Don’t miss the fundamental analysis
continue on to TheGeekKnows.com for the fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD Forecast Weekly Review to understand more about the underlying market sentiments.

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July 13th, 2013 @ 2:26 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com Learn Forex Trading and read exclusive EUR/USD Forecast and AUD/USD Forecast Reviews.

Good day forex traders and readers.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair faced a bearish support and should a correction happen, the extended bullish target could be 0.9320. In the meanwhile fundamentals show us that the RBA continues to adopt an accommodative stance to support the weaken Australian economy

20130713-202130.jpg

Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair did test the 0.9320 region and hence my forecast was spot on. I love it when it works. But again as I always mentioned, nothing in forex is 100%. If a forecast was correct, great! If it is wrong, we learn from it and thank ourselves for proper money management. :)

The return to the previous week’s trading levels suggests that the bearish pressure is strong. It would be more crucial now to note the current support. 0.9 would probably be strong and an extended bearish support may be 0.8900.

Should the bearish momentum fail again, we got 0.9320 right back on our sights :)

Don’t miss the fundamental analysis
continue on to TheGeekKnows.com for the fundamental analysis of the AUD/USD Forecast Weekly Review to understand more about the underlying market sentiments.

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July 12th, 2013 @ 5:53 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen around 1.3000. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2950 – 1.2900 area. On the upside, key resistance is seen around 1.3200. A clear break and daily/weekly close above that area could be an early signal of a major bullish scenario. I still prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development.

eurusddaily

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July 12th, 2013 @ 5:49 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish bias triggered by the FOMC. The major bearish scenario should remain valid but nearest term bias remains bullish especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.5200 testing 1.5250 – 1.5300. Immediate support is seen around 1.5120. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5050/30. I still prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development.

gbpusddaily

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July 12th, 2013 @ 5:43 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bearish bias so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 97.50 key support. Immediate resistance is seen around 99.29 (current high). A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 100.00. My major technical outlook is neutral.

usdjpydaily

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