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2013 July

July 17th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9261 minor / 0.9308 moderate / 0.9345 minor
Support: 0.9230 minor / 0.9198 moderate / 0.9136 moderate

Tuesday saw Aussy with a sharp rally to push through the 21D EMA and closing inside the EMA lines opening the possibility of triggering a daily level double bottom pattern. Daily indicators has a confluence of buys with a bullish divergence in both macd’s and stochastic. Note we have sold off by more than 1500 pips since April with very little correction seen since. From the 4H picture we also see a confluence of buys with stochastic overbought and the signals for macd just crossing above zero as well though candlesticks see a hanging man. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic looking poised to push oversold. For now we are looking for a buy on dips to the daily pivot at 0.9198, as we try to trigger our double bottom over the course of the week.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5141 minor / 1.5182 moderate / 1.5222 minor
Support: 1.5113 moderate / 1.5074 minor / 1.5035 moderate

Cable saw a bounce Tuesday with highs pushing through the 21D EMA testing though failing at the 38.2 Fib retracement for our sell-off since June 17. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic unable to push overbought and heading lower while macd’s for their part are pointing up. Note we actually have a lower high from last week. In the lower time frames we have a dark cloud cover in 4H candlesticks while stochastic is crossing lower and macd trying to cross up. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears with stochastic already pushing oversold while macd is just crossing lower. For now look for a close below the daily pivot to signal a resumption of our bear market. Alternative entry will be a rejection off the daily EMA lines and R! from pivot.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3168 minor / 1.3298(07) moderate / 1.3254 minor
Support: 1.3123 moderate / 1.3072 moderate / 1.3033 minor

Euro managed to bounce off the daily EMA lines after seeing long tails the past few trading days. Among indicators we now have a confluence of buys as stochastic pushes back up and is poised to move overbought abd macd is also looking to cross through the zero line heading up. We can also view the move as a bullish breakout for a pennant. Intraday we have a confluence of buys as stochastic is overbought and macd is heading up, however we have a dark cloud cover among the candlesticks. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold areas while macd also has a bear cross. Immediate risk calls for a pullback to the daily pivot at 1.3123 possibly S1 at 1.3072. Note key event for the day however will be Bernanke’s testimony on his Semi-Annual Policy report, look for an explanation of the shifts in his tine for the past month.

EURJPY
Resistance: 1.3070(74) moderate / 131.11 moderate / 131.40 minor
Support: 130.28 moderate / 129.92 moderate / 129.39 minor

Tuesday saw EURJPY consolidating its strong performance from monday with a mostly ranging market closing slightly its opening levels though still above the 130.28 breakout point. Indicators continue to show a confluence of buys from the daily charts with stochastic pushing overbought and macd clearing its signal line heading up.From the 4H level we have sell signals in both stochastic and macd though candlesticks are indecisive. Hourly charts has macd’s poised to cross up and stochastic already heading up. Given the consolidation from yesterday the preferred course of action is to remain sidelined straddling EURJPY around the open of European markets with shorts under 130.28 and buys above 130.70(74).

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July 16th, 2013 @ 5:24 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD had another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The major bearish scenario should remain valid but needs a clear break and daily close at least below 1.3000 – 1.2980 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2900 – 1.2850. On the upside, key resistance remains around 1.3200. A clear break above that area could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3100. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3150 – 1.3200.

eurusdhourly

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July 16th, 2013 @ 5:20 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 1.5026 but closed higher and hit 1.5115 earlier today. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5125/40. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure retesting 1.5200. Immediate support is seen around 1.5050 followed by 1.5000. The major bearish scenario remains valid but the bullish correction phase also remains intact. I still prefer to stand aside for now.

gbpusddaily

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July 16th, 2013 @ 5:17 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 100.47. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 100.80. Immediate support is seen around 99.50. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 99.00.

usdjpydaily

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July 16th, 2013 @ 5:13 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Intraday range to be closely watched remains between 0.9535 – 0.9404 which needs to be broken to see clearer direction. I still prefer to stand aside for now.

usdchfdaily

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July 16th, 2013 @ 1:41 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 130.79 minor / 131.11 moderate / 131.40 minor
Support: 130.20 moderate / 129.70 moderate / 129.42(54) moderate

Monday saw EURJPY with a strong bounce off the daily EMA lines to finally push through congestion highs and close with a bullish breakout. Daily indicators show stochastic pushing for overbought levels while macd also has a new bullish crossover. Note we have been ranging the past weej though we also have a series of higher highs and higher lows the previous month. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals for the moment 4H macd is pushing up while stochastic is off overbought levels though it has been oscillating around the 80 threshold suggesting a new up leg in the making. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s flat below the signal line and stochastic poised at a bear cross. For now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for a bounce off the pivot at 130.20 a break of 130.79 around the open of European markets may also be seen as a bullish entry.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.48 moderate / 100.83 moderate / 101.21 minor
Support: 99.70 moderate / 99.18 moderate / 98.68 moderate

USDJPY finally managed a clear push back above the daily EMA lines with its bounce off the 38.2 Fib retracement for the rally from June opening the possibility of run for 101.53. Daily indicators are showing mixed signals with stochastic pointing up but macd’s are just beginning to bottom out though above the zero line. Prices are also above the daily pivot. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic heads lower and macd’s are still pointing up looking to push through the zero line in 4H charts. in the hourly scale we have sell signals with macd below the signal line and stochastic crossing lower. Immediate risk is a break lower though failure to stay under 99.70 would make the price a good bounce off point. For now we prefer staying sidelined waiting for further catalyst out of Europe.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9129 moderate / 0.9184 moderate / 0.9227 minor
Support: 0.9082 moderate / 0.9042 moderate / 0.9000 psychological

Aussy is seeing high wave candles with Monday and even in the monthly scale as the support at 0.9000 continues to hold. Note our weekly also shows a possible bullish reversal with an inverted hammer. From indicators we are actually seeing a confluence of buys as stochastic crosses up while the macd indicator continue to point up as well. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys with 4H macd having a new bullish cross and stochastic poised to push overbought. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s heading up and stochastic also looking to cross higher. For now we are waiting for the minutes of the last RBA policy meeting at 0130GMT, with a hawkish tone possibly the catalyst needed for a push to the key resistance at 0.9383.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3093 moderate / 1.3122 minor / 1.3147 moderate
Support: 1.3045(54) moderate / 1.3000 moderate / 1.2948 minor

After pushing the daily EMA lines in European morning trade we have EURUSD with a long tail for the candlestick following a pattern from late last week. In the end we close back above the EMA lines with a ‘dragon fly doji’ while daily indicators show mixed signals stochastic with a bear cross and macd’s heading up. From the lower timeframes we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s heading lower in the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys with macd’s heading up and stochastic poised at a new bullish cross-over. For now we are looking for a push through the resistance a break of 1.3093, R1 in pivots, could be seen as a bullish entry for a retest of the swing highs from the Bernanke inspired spike last Wednesday.

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July 15th, 2013 @ 5:52 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD had another indecisive movement on Friday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I still prefer to stand aside for now. The major bearish scenario should remain valid but need a clear break and daily close at least back below 1.3000 – 1.2980 to keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 1.2900 – 1.2850 area. On the upside, key resistance remains around 1.3200. A clear break above that area would give further confirmation to the bullish reversal scenario.

eurusdhourly

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July 15th, 2013 @ 5:49 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I still prefer to stand aside for now. The major bearish scenario should remain valid but need a clear break and daily close at least below 1.5070/60 to keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 1.5000 or lower. On the upside key resistance is seen around 1.5250 – 1.5300. A clear break above that area could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario.

gbpusddaily

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