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2013 July

July 22nd, 2013 @ 2:02 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9223 minor / 0.9260 minor / 0.9304 moderate
Support: 0.9197 minor / 0.9163 moderate / 0.9137 moderate

With the Chinese decision to remove the floor on interest rates charged by its banks on loans after the close of Markets Friday we have Aussy rallying up on the idea that commodity currencies could benefit with the additional funding lines for Chinese businesses. As a result we have had a strong open for Aussy in the Wellington session already seeing half a days range with prices now back inside the daily EMA lines and set to move higher. Indicators wise we have daily macd’s heading up while stochastic is at risk of a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys in both 4H and hourly charts, the former seeing stochastic overbought while macd lines are seeing new bullish crossovers. For now we prefer seeing AUDUSD stabilized above 0.9223 the immediate resistance for a run to the 0.9260 region possibly all the way up to 0.9304. Note it appears that the daily double bottom remains in play as we look for a pullback to the sell-off we have seen since April.

EURJPY
Resistance: 131.63 minor / 131.97 moderate / 132.26 minor
Support: 131.11 moderate / 130.72 minor / 130.18 moderate

Following the election victory of the Abe administration over the weekend, we have Yen pairs selling off across the board on concern over the impact of possible policy changes. With PM Abe set to introduce lower corporate taxes, and loser labor laws we may have see real fund flows moving into Japan to take advantage of improved business condition in what remains to be the third biggest economy and still a very high per capita income country. EURJPY has already seen a sharp sell-off since the open of Japanese markets we may now be set for a pullback of our rally from June 13. From indicators we are still overbought in daily stochastic while macd is up along with the EMA lines though mean reversion is now a clear risk. Intraday we already have a confluence of bears in both the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic. For now we prefer adopting a sell on rallies immediate objective a retest of the 131.11 support.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3163 moderate / 1.3179 minor / 1.3208 moderate
Support: 1.3127 moderate / 1.3101 moderate / 1.3074 moderate

Euro saw a bullish close Friday following its bounce off the daily EMA lines though ranges have tightened of late. Among indicators we are seeing a confluence of buys from the daily picture with macd’s pushing past the zero line going up while stochastic is pushing for overbought areas and the EMA’s lines are beginning to cross higher. In the lower time frames we are seeing a similarly bullish set of signals as 4H stochastic push into overbought levels and macd’s see a new bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing into overbought territory while macd is also heading up. For the moment we are under a moderate resistance at 1.3163, 61.8 Fib though of the sell-off from June though an hourly close above it should be enough to push things higher.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.18 minor / 100.63 moderate / 100.87 moderate
Support: 99.65 moderate / 99.18 moderate / 98.69 moderate

With the Abe victory in Japanese election we saw USDJPY gapping lower at the open with the immediate gap quickly covered before the Japanese market opened. Note our sell-off so far has already tested the daily EMA lines, with 21D EMA at 99.65. Daily indicators for their part has mixed results with stochastic crossing lower coming off overbought areas while macd’s have a bullish crossover this as price action suggests we have a double top forming particularly with Friday;s hanging man. Intraday we are seeing bearish signals, starting with price action triggering a double top in 4H charts even as stochastic see a new bear cross while macd also has a new bearish cross. Hourly charts for their part also see a confluence of bears with the macd line pushing under zero and stochastic nearing the oversold threshold.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5301 moderate / 1.5341 moderate / 1.5392 moderate
Support: 1.5248(58) moderate / 1.5230 minor / 1.5180 minor

Cable saw a bullish close Friday getting a follow through push past the daily EMA lines and a quick push past the 50 Fib retracement level at the open of Wellington markets. From indicators we have daily stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading higher looking to push past the zero line. In the lower time frames we are seeing a confluence of buys in 4H charts with an overbought stochastic and macd’s staying above their signal line and zero threshold. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is at risk of a bear cross. For now immediate risk appear to call for a pullback to the daily pivot and 55D EMA at 1.5248(58). Look for markets to stabilize around the area to get the next move up.

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July 21st, 2013 @ 4:36 pm by The Geek

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In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair spiked up and tested the resistance of 1.32. As the currency pair eased, we might see 1.3 as a support. The apparent reversal of stance by the US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on quantitative easing tapering reduced apprehension and we noted increasing sentiments and risk appetite.

20130721-234706.jpg

Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair did find support at 1.3 The middle bollinger band did exert influence too as per mentioned in the previous EUR/USD review and I am of the opinion that it is likely to continue so.

Possible support may lie at 1.3060 / 1.3 . Should bullish pressure lift the currency pair, we may see the EUR/USD testing 1.32 / 1.3240.

Don’t miss the fundamental analysis
continue on to TheGeekKnows.com for the fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD Forecast Weekly Review to understand more about the underlying market sentiments.

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July 20th, 2013 @ 4:46 pm by The Geek

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Good day forex traders and readers.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that 0.9 might be a strong support. If a bullish correction came, we might test the resistance of 0.9320. From a fundamental point of view, China’s slowdown continued to weight down on the currency pair. We had yet to see much uplift from the apparent reversal of US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s stance on quantitative easing tapering.

20130720-235221.jpg

Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair did hit support near the 0.9 region. It then rose to test the resistance region of 0.9320 but failed to break through it.

The bollinger bands are exerting a fair amount of technical influence and hence this remains our guide for possible support and resistance. Any bearish momentum will need to test the immediate support of 0.9080. The immediate resistance for now appears to be 0.9320.

As we can observe from the tightened bollinger bands, volatility has reduced.

Don’t miss the fundamental analysis
continue on to TheGeekKnows.com for the fundamental analysis of the AUD/USD Forecast Weekly Review to understand more about the underlying market sentiments.

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July 19th, 2013 @ 4:28 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook and price is still in a consolidation phase. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Key resistance remains around 1.3170 – 1.3200. A clear break and daily/weekly close above that area could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. The major bearish scenario remains intact but needs a clear break at least below 1.3000 – 1.2980 to keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

eurusdhourly

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July 19th, 2013 @ 4:25 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish correction bias so far. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5300. Immediate support is seen around 1.5200 – 1.5180. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5150 – 1.5100. The major bearish scenario remains valid but need a clear break at least below 1.5050 to potentially end the current bullish correction phase and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

gbpusddaily

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July 19th, 2013 @ 4:20 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday but corrected lower earlier today after failed to break above 100.80 resistance area, bottomed at 99.80. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but we need a clear break above 100.80 to continue the bullish scenario. Immediate support is seen around 99.50 followed by 99.00.

usdjpydaily

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July 19th, 2013 @ 4:16 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9477 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 0.9530. On the downside, key support remains around 0.9350. A clear break and daily/weekly close below that area could trigger further bearish scenario. My major technical outlook remains unclear.

usdchfdaily

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July 19th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3115 minor / 1.3163 moderate / 1.3208 moderate
Support: 1.3074 moderate / 1.3047 minor / 1.3000 psychological

Thursday saw a hammer in EURUSD with price eventually bouncing off S1 and the 55D EMA in New York trade. From indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s heading up looking poised to push through the zero line. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic heading up while macd heads to the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are the opposite as stochastic comes off overbought levels and macd is rising. With our daily hammer and the EMA lines for a bounce off point the preferred course of action would be buys on a break of 1.3315.Alternative entry will be a bounce off the 1.3074 price point, our S1.

EURJPY
Resistance: 132.31 moderate / 132.86 moderate / 133.78 minor
Support: 131.82 minor / 1.3142 moderate / 130.93 moderate

EURJPY saw a sharp rally Thursday with the daily candle nearly turning out to be a ‘maru bozu’. Among indicators we have stochastic pushing to overbought levels while macd’s are also heading up with the bounce off the EMA lines looking strong. Hoever we have had significant gains for the week, and G20 meetings to consider over the weekend. Intraday we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with an overbought stochastic and macd’s heading up. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd though stochastic appear to be at risk of crossing lower and developing a bearish divergence. Immediate risk calls for further gains though with the weekend and rally for the past few days we are capping expectations and will be looking for potential position squaring.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9187 moderate / 0.9222 minor / 0.9260 minor
Support: 0.9137 moderate / 0.9110 minor / 0.9075 moderate

Thursday’s pullback in Aussy was unable to generate a large enough bounce from 0.9137 that we ended up closing just under the 21D EMA. With our moderate resistances at 0.9304 and the spinning top from Wednesday we now look like a range play instead of a double bottom. From indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s pointing up. Intraday we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s pointing up. We do not have any strong conviction in Aussy though orice action suggests immediate risk will be for a run to the key support at 0.9000. Consider shorts from just under 0.9187 or on a close below 0.9137.

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