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2013 July

July 25th, 2013 @ 1:40 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9170 minor / 0.9201 moderate / 0.9257 moderate
Support: 0.9119 minor / 0.9068 moderate / 0.9041 moderate

Aussy saw a huge sell-off in Wednesday trade as the earlier drop follow poor Chinese manufacturing numbers was followed by further losses in New York with equity markets dropping further. At the close we triggered a daily level double top in Aussy putting end to the rounding bottom for the last month while indicators show stochastic well on their way to oversold levels and macd’s at risk of a bear cross. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold and macd’s dropping through the zero line in 4H charts. In the hourly’s we also see a confluence of bears as stochastic is poised to push oversold and macd is dropping. For now we prefer looking for further weakness a sell on rallies to the 21D EMA, a moderate resistance at 0.9198(01). Note we are now looking for a big picture range play with the floor at 0.9000 once more.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5329 moderate / 1.5351 minor / 1.5373 minor
Support: 1.5297 moderate / 1.5269 moderate / 1.5230 minor

Following through on the ‘hanging man’ setup from Tuesday we have Cable with a big sell-off yesterdays for a rejection from the 61.8 Fib level of our drop for June. Daily indicators continue to see a mixed set of signals with stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is bullish. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears with stochastic pushing oversold while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of bears with a bearish macd and stochastic seeing a new bear cross. Given the rejection from the 61.8 Fib along with intraday signals and daily candle stick patterns, immediate risk calls for a bear market a drop to the EMA lines with projected lowes calling for push under the 21D EMA of 1.5230.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3208 moderate / 1.3237 minor / 1.3255 moderate
Support: 1.3161(63) moderate / 1.3143 minor / 1.3109 moderate

In the Euro was unable to hold on to its earlier surge for a follow through Tuesdays 1.3208 breakout with the daily candle seeing a long wick and a bearish engulfing with the change of tone. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd remains bullish though we opened the delay below our pivot at 1.3208. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic pushing for oversold levels while macd is also heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic with a new bear cross and macd’s also pushing through the zero line. Given the change of sentiment in New York we prefer looking for a bear market with mean reversion likely to set in. Consider shorts from under 1.3208 the daily pivot or following a break of 1.3161(63), the S1 from pivots.

USDJPY
Resistance: 100.45 minor / 100.75 moderate / 101.10 minor
Support: 100.08 moderate / 99.73 moderate / 99.35 moderate

Over the past three weks we have seen USDJPY form a symmetric triangle with prices at this point just under the declining resistance line. At the moment we have prices opening the day above the pivot while indicators show stochastic pushing up though macd remain flat just under the signal line though above zero. In the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic in the process of coming off overbought areas while macd is bullish. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with macd below the signal line and stochastic crossing lower. Immediate risk calls for us to head lower a break of the support at 100.08 to pave the way for a test of the rising support line.

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July 24th, 2013 @ 7:54 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3238. Despite hesitation to move consistently above 1.3200, nearest term bias remains bullish testing 1.3300 and 1.3400. Immediate support is seen around 1.3190 (current low). A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3150.

eurusdhourly

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July 24th, 2013 @ 7:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish bias. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.5440/80. Immediate support is seen around 1.5340. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break below 1.5250 could interrupt the current bullish outlook.

gbpusddaily

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July 24th, 2013 @ 7:48 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Potential intraday range is seen between 100.20 – 99.15. We need a clear break from that range area to see clearer direction. As long as stays above 98.00 I still prefer a bullish scenario but need a clear break above 100.80 strong resistance to continue the bullish momentum.

usdjpydaily

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July 24th, 2013 @ 7:46 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday topped at 0.9406 but closed lower at 0.9348. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9300 – 0.9270. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9406. A clear break above that area will interrupt the current bearish outlook testing 0.9450 or higher.

usdchfhourly

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July 24th, 2013 @ 1:38 am by Mark De La Paz

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NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8015 moderate / 0.8053 moderate / 0.8078 minor
Support: 0.7986 moderate / 0.7961 moderate / 0.7921 moderate

Kiwi managed to push on Tuesday hitting the 38.2 Fib retracement level of its sell-off from May highs, 0.8553. Among indicators we have a confluence of buys as stochastic pushes further into overbought levels while macd is also rising and we begin to see golden crosses from the EMA lines. In the lower time frames we also have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with stochastic looking to push back above 80 and macd’s seeing a new bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part also see a confluence of buys as stochastic tries to cross up and macd remain above the signal line. Earlier releases also turned out to be supportive of Kiwi with a strong trade balance though price action suggests an inability to hold on to gains. We appear to be forming a double top in 4H charts. Considering selling should prices remain under 0.8015 by the time European markets open.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9304 moderate / 0.9345 minor / 0.9383 strong
Support: 0.9269 moderate / 0.9239 moderate / 0.9204 moderate

In the end Aussy managed to close higher Tuesday with our double bottom trigger at 0.9304 as our immediate resistance level. Daily indicators has stochastic pushing overbought while macd is also rising and we find prices above the 34D EMA though still inside the band from 21D to 55D EMA. Recall we have a daily level cup hand / rounding bottom or double bottom with the same trigger. In the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s on the rise. Hourly charts for their part has a flag pattern poised to see a bullish breakout while macd is above the signal line and stochastic looking to cross higher. Note we have Australian inflation numbers at 0130GMT consensus forecast calling for headline CPI at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter strong reads will be the excuse we need to break higher.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5392 moderate / 1.5428 minor / 1.5465 minor
Support: 1.5362 moderate / 1.5334 moderate / 1.5295 moderate

In the end Cable failed to take out its 1.5392 61.8 Fib retracement level for the sell-off from June with the daily candle turning into a spinning top opening the possibility of a bear market. Daily indicators has an overbought stochastic and macd’s heading up pushing past the zero line. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with stochastic pushing for overbought areas while 4H mac has just seen a bear cross. hourly charts are similarly mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas and macd’s just crossing lower. Given our immediate resistance we prefer looking for a rejection from the 1.5392 region. Consider that the first attempt of 61.8 Fib typically fails an we have also begun to form a double top pattern in the 4H picture.

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July 23rd, 2013 @ 3:58 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com Learn Forex Trading and read exclusive EUR/USD Forecast and AUD/USD Forecast Reviews.

Good day forex traders and readers.

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that possible support might be at 1.3060 and possible resistance might be at 1.32. From a fundamental point of view, we noted the continued efforts by the US Federal Reserve to ease apprehension regarding quantitative easing tapering. The Euro Zone remained stranded in a recession.

20130723-211116.jpg

Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD 4 hourly chart above we note that the currency pair was slightly bullish earlier but it remains capped by the resistance of 1.32 for now as expected. This is a crucial resistance region that needs to be taken down first before any bullish trend can be considered.

Should bearish pressure continue, we may expect an extended bearish target of 1.3060.

Don’t miss the fundamental analysis
continue on to TheGeekKnows.com for the fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD Forecast Weekly Review to understand more about the underlying market sentiments.

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July 23rd, 2013 @ 7:19 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday slipped above 1.3200. The bearish scenario is in a serious threat as a clear break above 1.3200 could be an early signal of a major bullish reversal scenario testing 1.3400. The bias is bullish in nearest term. Immediate support is seen around 1.3170. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3100 which needs to be clearly broken to the downside to give the bearish scenario another chance.

eurusdhourly

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