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2013 July

July 1st, 2013 @ 6:35 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower last week bottomed at 96.96 but whipsawed to the upside and hit 99.53. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 100.00/80 area. Immediate support is seen around 99.00. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break back below 98.00 could interrupt the current bullish outlook.

usdjpydaily

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July 1st, 2013 @ 6:31 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum last week topped at 0.9486. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9500 or higher. Immediate support is seen around 0.9400. A clear break and daily close below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9350/00 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

usdchfdaily

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July 1st, 2013 @ 1:59 am by Mark De La Paz

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XAUUSD
Resistance: 1244.00 moderate / 1252.95 moderate / 1255.00 minor
Support: 1233.20 minor / 1222.25 moderate / 1216.60 moderate

After selling off for the past quarter we have Gold bouncing Friday with the ned of the week, the month, the quarter and the first half of the year. At the close we have a bulling engulfing in daily charts though we face immediate moderate resistances. Still mean reversion could be a risk given the gap between prices and daily EMA lines. Other indicators are mixed with daily macd still bearish while stochastic has come-off oversold levels. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys with overbought stochastic and rising macd. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd is still heading up. Given the mixed picture we think a straddle may be the better strategy, consider buys on a close above 1244.07 or sells should we get an close below 1233.20.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5216 moderate / 1.5261 minor / 1.5293 moderate
Support: 1.55(58) moderate / 1.5108 moderate / 1.5063 moderate

Cable saw a follow through sell-off Friday getting to the 78.6 Fib retracement level of our rally from May 29, with minimal position squaring in New York trade. Daily indicators show a confluence of bears forming among the EMA lines while stochastic si crawling further in oversold areas and macd’s have pushed lower though the zero line. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic show a bullish divergence and macd a new bullish cross from the 4H picture even as hourly charts has stochastic heading lower unable to push overbought though macd is rising albeit under zero. For we prefer looking for a possible pullback, a push above 1.5216 will be seen as a bullish entry though failure to do so by the middle of the European trading will have us looking for further weakness.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9176 moderate / 0.9204 minor / 0.9240 moderate
Support: 0.9113 moderate / 0.9071 moderate / 0.9000 psychological

In the end we saw AUDUSD closing the week and June under the 38.2 Fib retracement level for Aussy’s rally from October of 2008 breaking a week long range play. This after a week if range okay that saw indicators into a bearish confluence with stochastic pushing oversold while macd remains flat under the zero line though only slightly below its signal. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears with 4H stochastic in oversold areas while macd is dropping though candlesticks show a hammer. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish divergence and macd bottoming out nearing a bullish crossover. For the moment though with Chinese Manufacturing PMI data set for release at the end of the hour 0100GMT it would be best to wait for the figures and decide our next move based on its outcome.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.7754 minor / 0.7799 minor / 0.7852 moderate
Support: 0.7712 moderate / 0.7682 moderate / 0.7639 minor

At the close Friday we have a high wave candle in Kiwi suggesting that bulls may have begun to come back into the market reinforcing the idea of a floor around 0.7682. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s bottoming while price charts saw a spinning top continuing a pattern of indecision for the past week and a half. From the lower time we have mixed signals still in the 4H picture with stochastic crossing up and macd barely heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys. Note we find ourselves just under the daily pivot at 0.7754, a close above the said price may be seen as bullish. Overall given the floor we are looking for base building a possible technical correction later on from the big picture. An alternative entry will be a buy on dips to 0.7682.

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