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2013 July

July 12th, 2013 @ 5:36 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bearish bias triggered by the FOMC. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9320. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9500. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9550 region. I still prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development.

usdchfdaily

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July 12th, 2013 @ 1:39 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURJPY
Resistance: 130.28 moderate / 130.79 minor / 131.11 moderate
Support: 129.82 minor / 129.20 moderate / 128.64 moderate

EURJPY saw another whipsaw day yesterday as we remain within recent ranges the daily EMA lines acting as a good support area while indicators are showing mixed signals with stochastic pointing up and macd getting a new bear cross. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in the 4H picture as stochastic cross higher and macd’s try to push back up above the zero line. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is heading up. With equity markets rallying up seeing new highs and a fractal pattern from the daily candlesticks we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the daily EMA’s around 129.20 or taking the buy side on a push past R1 in pivot points, at 130.28.

Gold
Resistance: 1289.50 minor / 1301.64 moderate / 1308.52 minor
Support: 1279.49 minor / 1267.77 moderate / 1260.64 minor

In the end we have a long wick in Gold charts with highs sticking all the way up to the 34D EMA even as we saw a shooting star at the end of the day. Among indicators we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also heading up with prices between 21D and 34D EMA. From the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with a bullish macd and bearish stochastic from the 4H picture. Hourly charts has macd’s heading lower and stochastic looking to push back up to overbought levels. Given the mix of shooting star and bullish daily indicators along with being trapped between the 21D and 34D EMA’s the preferred course of action will be a straddle. A break higher will be justified by the Fed once more sounding dovish. A bearish breakout could be seen as a pullback play with the close of the week.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3147(53) moderate / 1.3206 moderate / 1.3260 minor
Support: 1.3079 moderate / 1.3012 moderate / 1.2938 minor

Thursday saw the Euro bouncing off the daily EMA lines after an earlier pullback that saw a descending wedge in intraday charts breaking higher. At this point we night as well forget about the weekly SHS pattern as sentiment has once again turned. From indicators we have daily stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has also crossed higher though candlesticks are a point of concern with its hanging man. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with macd’s heading up and stochastic with anew bullish cross, poised to push overbought. Hourly charts are mixed with a flat macd though above zero and stochastic pointing lower. For now we prefer looking for a bounce off 1.3079 the daily pivot, as we head for the European open. A close under the said price opens the possibility of easing off the 1.3012.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9193 moderate / 0.9243 moderate / 0.9300 moderate
Support: 0.9130 minor / 0.9087 moderate / 0.9035 moderate

Aussy saw a false break of the 21D EMA with a bearish close for Thursday just around the 38.2 Fib retracement level of of our rally from 2008. At the moment we appear to be forming an inverted dragon fly doji in the weekly chart. Daily indicators see a mixed set of signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd heading up even as price charts have a higher high, though were capped by the daily EMA’s. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with macd heading down and stochastic just crossing up in 4H charts. Hourly charts has a confluence of shorts. With Home Loans figures coming out at 0130GMT the preferred course of action is to remain sidelined. A strong read should see us looking for a bounce to the 21D EMA, perhaps yesterdays highs at 0.9300.

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July 11th, 2013 @ 2:16 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com Learn Forex Trading and read exclusive EUR/USD Forecast and AUD/USD Forecast Reviews.

Good day forex traders and readers.

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was facing a crucial support region that had in previous instances held up against bearish pressure. From a fundamental point of view, the continued speculation on US Federal Reserve quantitative easing tapering brought about the US dollar strength.

20130711-203752.jpg

Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair had an unexpected bullish spike. The bullish momentum was a strong one as it broke through various resistances to test the 1.32 region.

The EUR/USD is now approaching the line of 1.3 and it would be important to note if the currency pair would go below 1.3. If it indeed does so, we might be looking at 1.2880 as the next bearish target.

Don’t miss the fundamental analysis
continue on to TheGeekKnows.com for the fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD Forecast Weekly Review to understand more about the underlying market sentiments.

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July 11th, 2013 @ 4:56 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD had a strong bullish momentum yesterday after the FOMC, topped at 1.3199. As you can see on my daily chart below price is moving back above the EMA 200 which is a serious threat to the major bearish scenario and technically could be the beginning of a major bullish reversal scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3200. A clear break and daily close above that area would give further confirmation to the bullish reversal scenario testing 1.3400 – 1.3500 region. Immediate support is seen around 3060/70. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3000 which needs to be clearly broken to the downside to keep the bearish scenario remains valid. I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development.

eurusddaily

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July 11th, 2013 @ 4:52 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a strong bullish momentum yesterday on broad US Dollar weakness after the FOMC. The major bearish scenario remains valid, but nearest term bias is bullish especially if price able to make another break above 1.5200 testing 1.5250 – 1.5300. Immediate support is seen around 1.5050. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term. I prefer to stand aside and wait for further development.

gbpusddaily

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July 11th, 2013 @ 4:48 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 98.34. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 97.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 99.60. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear. On the downside, a clear break below 97.50 could be an early signal of a major bearish scenario testing 96.70 or lower.

usdjpydaily

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July 11th, 2013 @ 4:45 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday on a broad US Dollar weakness after the FOMC bottomed at 0.9404. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9320. A clear break and daily close below that area could be an early signal of a major bearish reversal scenario. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9500 – 0.9575. I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development.

usdchfdaily

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July 11th, 2013 @ 1:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 0.9237 moderate / 0.9300 moderate / 0.9324 moderate
Support: 0.9208 moderate / 0.9176 minor / 0.9126 moderate

Along with the rest of the market we have Aussy rallying Wednesday as Chairman Bernanke stepped back from the hawkish tone that he had two weeks ago. At the close we saw prices just around the 21D EMA with wicks pushing beyond the said price to highs at 0.9300. Among indicators we have daily macd pushing up while stochastic is also heading higher. In intraday charts we are also seeing a confluence of buys in the 4H period with macd’s heading up and stochastic seeing a new bullish cross. Meanwhile hourly stochastic has a bear cross coming off overbought levels and macd is heading higher. For now we will view the 21D EMA as a strategic resistance with buys on any close above it while a push below the pivot at 0.8208 will suggest a rejection from the daily EMA lines. Note we have jobs numbers coming out for Australia look for a textbook interpretation.

Gold
Resistance: 1288.91 moderate / 1300.00 psychological / 1334.71 strong
Support: 1272.31 moderate / 1267.11 moderate / 1260.01 moderate

Gold triggered a daily level double bottom following across the board dollar dumping as Bernanke made a u-turn on Fed policy. Daily indicators show stochastic overbought while macd is also pushing higher. Note we have prices pushing back inside the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in 4H charts with stochastic poised to push overbought and macds heading up. Hourly indicators for their part has an overbought stochastic and bullish macd, this as candlesticks show a flag pattern in our charts. For now we prefer looking for a buy on dips from the 21D EMA, alternative entry will be a push through the previous highs at 1289.75. Technically the daily double bottom’s target is at 1354.00.

USDJPY
Resistance: 99.47 moderate / 99.87 moderate / 100.48 moderate
Support: 99.18 minor / 98.57 moderate / 97.76 moderate

Wednesday saw USDJPY sell-off to the daily EMA lines on a Bernanke speech indicating that the ultra accommodative environment is here to stay for a while in the US. From indicators we now have a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for oversold levels as its bearish divergence was finally felt while macd has a new bear cross. Note we have prices among the daily EMA lines. Intraday we have mixed signals in 4H charts with stochastic crossing higher even as macds push under the zero line. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd trying to bottom out. At this we note that Bernanke’s appearance came after the close of US markets with the lack of liquidity exacerbating price action.

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