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2011 March

March 7th, 2011 @ 5:38 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish bias on Friday, hit 1.4000 psychological level. About two weeks ago I told you that the broken bullish flag could trigger further bullish scenario and the nearest bullish target is around 1.4281 and the trend line resistance (red) as you can see on my daily chart below. However, this bullish scenario would need a clear break above 1.4000 which could be a strong and key resistance at this phase. Immediate support at 1.3920. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only another move back below 1.3860 could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook.

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March 7th, 2011 @ 5:33 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 115.95but closed lower at 115.11 and hit 114.80 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays above 114.00 I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase with the nearest bullish target around 116.35 (50% Fibo retracement of 127.88 – 105.42).  I am interested to buy around 114.00 as I see a good technical set up and risk – reward ratio there.


GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 135.15 but whipsawed to the downside, back below 134.20 and hit 133.46 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 132.50 but my medium term outlook remains neutral as price still move in a sideways condition. On the upside, another move above 134.20 would change the intraday bias to bullish but only a clear break above 135.50 strong/key resistance area would lead us to a new bullish phase.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD has been moving in a range condition in the last two weeks indicates a consolidation phase while price still struggling around the trend line resistance  (white) as you can see on my daily chart below. The major technical outlook remains bullish aiming for new all time high levels but the current all time high at 1.0256 could be a strong resistance at this phase while the rising wedge formation still provide a downside risk especially if price able to make a clear and convincing break below the wedge. Immediate resistance at 1.0157 (current high). A clear break above that area would trigger further upside pressure retesting 1.0256. Immediate support at 1.0030/50 and the lower line of the rising wedge formation which could be a key support area at this phase.

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March 7th, 2011 @ 5:27 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and the bullish continuation scenario still need a clear break above 1.6300 targeting 1.6500 – 1.6700. Immediate support at 1.6220. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.6150/80 even would open the door for further bearish pullback testing 1.6100 – 1.6030 region.

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March 7th, 2011 @ 5:24 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 83.04 (neckline) but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 82.30 and hit 82.14 earlier today in Asian session. This fact keeps the “head and shoulders” bearish scenario intact especially if price able to make a clear break below 82.20 retesting 81.60 strong support area which would reopen the door for further bearish pressure targeting 80.90. On the upside, only a clear break above the neckline would cancel the “head and shoulders” bearish scenario at least targeting 83.92 (the head).

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March 7th, 2011 @ 5:18 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish significant bearish momentum on Friday after failed to make a break above 0.9330 and now seems ready for a retest of 0.9233 key support area. A clear break and a daily close below 0.9233 would continue the bearish continuation scenario targeting 0.9100 – 0.9000. Immediate resistance at 0.9260. Break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9330 but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the downside.

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March 5th, 2011 @ 4:26 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view Daily  EUR/USD Reviews.

Good day forex trading koalas.

In the previous review, we noted that inflation risk is high and in particularly investors are speculating that the European Central Bank may hike interest rates soon to combat inflation. Hence the demand for Euro may increase.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we can see a long period of hesitation around the line of 1.38. We all know that 1.38 is usually a strong resistance. However the line succumbed to the intense upside pressure towards the end of the week.
***
Beginning of the week saw repeated attempts to break the 1.38 line. There was risk aversion in the markets due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. Having said so, bullish pressure remained due to the inflation risks. Indications from the ECB continued to fuel speculations that an interest rate hike is due soon.
By mid week, the EUR/USD began to test the region above 1.38. Many traders began to call for a top due to the strength of the line. They believed that risk aversion would work to dampen the currency pair.
Towards the end of the week, it became clearer that 1.4 might be next. A breakout developed and pushed the EUR/USD above 1.39. A particular development probably helped along. This was the better than expected US unemployment claims. It was the lowest since May 2008 and most investors see this as a strong indication of an improvement in the labor market of the US. Risk seeking activities increased.
The US Non-Farm Payroll was due at the end of the week. While the statistics came out rather expected, the unemployment rate was lower than expected! This was a much welcomed change and it brought the unemployment rate below 9%. This further fueled the indications that the US labor market is improving and probably sparked a demand for higher risk assets. The EUR/USD touched the 1.4 line.
***
Inflation risk will probably continue to be a focus next week as many economic data is suggesting that inflation is growing. This is an important matter to consider as many investors will probably speculate that the European Central Bank will take measures soon to curb inflation. The Euro will probably face increased demand due to the anticipation of an interest rate hike.

I mentioned previously that two of the most troubling factors of the US economy are probably the housing market and employment situation. Many experts and Mr Bernanke himself believe that these two factors are weighting the US economic recovery down. With the drop of the unemployment claims and the unemployment rate, investors are probably going to be looking at the US economy with renewed optimism.

1.4 is an important line from a technical point of view. Therefore it is crucial that we play attention to how the currency pair reacts at that level. The week closed slightly below thus we cannot rule out a failure to break the resistance.

Next week brings us a number of important economic data such as the US Unemployment Claims and Retail Sales. Investors will be looking at the Unemployment Claims closely after the good release this time. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

Trade Safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Read more Forex Articles and Daily EUR/USD Reviews by The Forex Koala at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view Daily EUR/USD Reviews.

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March 4th, 2011 @ 6:59 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made a significant bullish momentum yesterday, strongly broke above 1.3860 key resistance area and almost hit 1.4000 psychological level, topped at 1.3972. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4000. A clear break above that area would continue the bullish pressure testing 1.4100 – 1.4150 before targeting 1.4250 – 1.4300. Immediate support at 1.3900. A break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and only a clear break back below 1.3860 could halt the bullish view.  Compared to other major currencies like Cable and Aussie Dollar, the Euro short term bullishness against the Greenback is stronger, but the major outlook for those major currencies remains bullish.

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March 4th, 2011 @ 6:53 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made a significant break above 114.00 yesterday, topped at 115.15 and closed at 115.03. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 115.65 even higher. As you can see on my daily chart below, the range area between 110.80 – 114.00 (23.6% and 38.2% Fibo retracement of 127.88 – 105.42) has been broken to the upside indicates potential bullish continuation scenario. Above 115.65, next bullish target is around 116.35 (50% Fibo retracement of 127.88 – 105.42). Immediate support at 114.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to a neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays above 114.00 the major scenario remains bullish.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday and now testing 134.20 resistance area as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term but note that price still trapped between 134.20 – 132.50 and aggressive intraday traders can still short around 134.20 with tight stop loss. A clear break above 134.20 would trigger further upside momentum targeting 135.50. Immediate support at 133.20. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to neutral testing 132.50 and only a clear break below 132.50 would change the intraday bias to bearish. Aggressive intraday traders can still long around 132.50 with tight stop loss.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD has been moving in a range condition this week, form a Doji formation on weekly chart so far indicating indecisive movement. Price also still struggling around the trend line resistance (white) and there is no winner so far. Although overall technical bias remains strongly to the upside retesting all time high at 1.0256, intraday bias shows more bearish bias retesting 1.0070 and the lower line of the rising wedge formation. A clear break below the rising wedge formation could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9942 even could create a bigger bearish correction. On the upside,  a movement above 1.0256, could trigger further bullish momentum testing new all time high projection which could be seen around 1.0400 – 1.0500.

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