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2011 March

March 11th, 2011 @ 5:21 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. Price is still struggling around the upper line of the range area around 0.9330 without consistent momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major bearish scenario remains intact and I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9280 testing 0.9230 key support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9368. A clear break above that area would change the intraday technical bias to bullish testing 0.9435 but overall the major bearish scenario should remains intact.

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March 10th, 2011 @ 7:59 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but intraday technical bias still within a context of a bearish correction phase since the pullback from 1.4000/35 key resistance area. On h1 chart below we can see price is consolidating in a rectangle formation between 1.3940 – 1.3860 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Strong buying activities were seen around 1.3860 – 1.3830 on March 03 which formed a support area at this phase so if you are interested to short this pair, better watch that support area closely. A clear break below 1.3830 would continue the bearish correction testing 1.3740/00 support area, but note that the major bullish scenario should remains intact and only a clear break below 1.3700 would be a serious threat to the bullish scenario. We also have an important daily candle stick formation, a shooting star which seen on Monday, just after the failure to make a clear break above 1.4000/35 indicates downside pullback warning although for me it’s too early for a bearish reversal scenario now.  On the upside, a clear break above 1.3940 (yesterday’s high) would change the intraday technical bias to bullish retesting 1.4000/35 but bullish continuation scenario would have further validation only by a clear break above 1.4000/35 targeting 1.4281 as the shooting star formation bearish scenario would no longer valid. I personally prefer to long around 1.3740/00 or above 1.4035 where I see the best combination between my technical outlook and risk – reward ratio.

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March 10th, 2011 @ 7:50 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its sideways movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where price is now in consolidation phase, but still within a context of a bullish scenario after the breakout above the range area at least testing 116.35. The best strategy for me is to remain long around 114.00.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday and now testing 134.20 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 134.20 retesting 135.50 key resistance area but the bullish continuation scenario would have further validation only by a clear break above 135.50 which would reactivate my bullish mode. On the downside, immediate resistance at 133.50 followed by 132.50. Aggressive intraday traders can long around 132.50 with stop loss below 131.75 while conservative traders can long around 131.75 (the lower line of the bullish channel) with smaller stop loss.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday but had some downside pressure earlier today in Asian session testing the lower line of the rising wedge formation as you can see on my daily chart below. Like I said yesterday, a clear break and a daily close below the wedge and 1.0030/50 could continue the bearish correction scenario at least testing 0.9942 even lower as a bigger downside correction scenario after hit all time high could be produced. The bias is bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.0090. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but would give another chance for another upside pressure testing 1.0140 resistance area. A clear break above 1.0140 would change the intraday technical bias to bullish retesting all time high at 1.0256 but that level should remain a strong resistance area and aggressive traders can still short around that level due to a good risk – reward ratio and psychological reason.

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March 10th, 2011 @ 7:36 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday and has been moving in a sideways condition in the last two days. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Similar to the EUR/USD which is in a counter trend phase after found resistance at 1.4000 area, the GBP/USD also in a corrective phase after the failure to move clearly above 1.6300 and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. A clear break below the bullish channel and daily close below 1.6130 would continue the bearish correction testing 1.5950 key support area this week, but note that overall price still trapped between 1.5950 – 1.6300.  Immediate resistance is seen around 1.6241 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish retesting 1.6300. Although I still prefer a major bullish scenario, only a clear break above 1.6300 would reactivate my bullish mode.

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March 10th, 2011 @ 7:27 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where the “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but downside pressure is very limited now. I will pay attention to the neckline and 83.05 resistance area as a clear break above that area would cancel the bearish scenario testing 83.96 (the head) which could be an early phase of a new bullish scenario. On the downside, only a clear break below 82.50 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong with nearest target remains around 80.90.

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March 10th, 2011 @ 7:14 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continued its bullish momentum yesterday and now back inside the range area, indicates a false breakout scenario which could push the pair lower testing 0.9230 in nearest term before continue its bearish scenario targeting 0.9100 – 0.9000. Short around 0.9330 is the best intraday strategy for me as I see a good risk – reward ratio there. Another consistent move above 0.9330 would keep the bullish correction scenario targeting 0.9435 remains intact but overall the major scenario remains to the downside.

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March 9th, 2011 @ 6:56 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday after the failure to make a clear break above 1.4000 key resistance area and now testing 1.3860. Price is now in a counter trend phase and another clear break below 1.3860 would continue the bearish correction testing 1.3740 area which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3427 – 1.4035. However I think the major bullish scenario remains intact and a clear break back above 1.3920 would give the Euro another chance for a retest of 1.4000/35 key resistance area.

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March 9th, 2011 @ 6:49 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. Three Dojis in the last three days as you can see on my daily chart below suggests that price is now in consolidation phase, but still within a context of a bullish scenario after the breakout above the range area at least testing 116.35. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook and I think the best strategy for now is to remain long around 114.00.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and there are no changes in my daily technical outlook. Overall price is still moving in a sideways condition without clear direction and consistent momentum but I think still with more upside bias especially if price able to make a clear break above 134.20 retesting 135.50. On the downside, 132.50 remains a key support area at this phase. Aggressive intraday traders can long around 132.50 with stop loss below 131.75 while conservative traders can long around 131.75 (the lower line of the bullish channel) with smaller stop loss.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD still able to maintain its bearish correction bias so far and now testing the lower line of the rising wedge formation indicates a critical technical point. A clear break and a daily close below the wedge and 1.0030/50 could continue the bearish correction scenario at least testing 0.9942. Immediate resistance at 1.0140. A clear break above that area would change the intraday technical bias to bullish retesting all time high at 1.0256 but that level should remain a strong resistance area and aggressive traders can still short around that level due to a good risk – reward ratio and psychological reason.

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