Forex Academy Quick Links:
Language:
English

2011 March

March 14th, 2011 @ 6:42 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 81.65 and hit 81.20 earlier today in Asian session. The earthquake and Tsunami in Japan triggered broad Yen strength (my condolences to the Japanese). However, as you can see on my daily chart below, price failed to make a clear break below the triangle formation so far. I don’t think that now is the best time to trade. Beside unclear/consolidation technical bias, usually market reaction to a natural disaster can be very tricky. The bearish momentum might be short lived and market sentiment can change quickly to the opposite direction, testing the upper line of the triangle. On the downside, a clear break below the triangle and 81.20 would trigger further bearish pressure targeting 80.90 – 80.30 support area. Immediate resistance at 82.60. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 83.28 and the upper line of the triangle.

Click here to read the full article.

March 14th, 2011 @ 6:35 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another volatile but indecisive movement on Friday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. However note that the major scenario remains bearish and any upside movement now should only be considered as a counter trend/corrective moves. The fact that the upside pressure is limited so far could end the upside consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9230 especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9267 and keep the bearish scenario targeting 0.9100 – 9.000 remains strong. On the upside, a clear break above 0.9368 (which has been a strong intraday resistance since March 08) would trigger further bullish correction testing 0.9435 resistance area.

Click here to read the full article.

March 12th, 2011 @ 4:07 pm by The Geek

Click here to read the full article.

Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view Daily  EUR/USD Reviews.

Good day forex trading koalas!

In the previous review, we noted that the 1.4 line is an important line from a technical point of view. It is important that we monitor the reaction of the EUR/USD at that region. While the week had bullish pressures, the fact that it closed below 1.4 indicates that we cannot rule out a failure to the test of the resistance.

A quick look at the EUR/USD chart above shows a bearish week.

While the start of the week gave us a test on the 1.4 line, the currency pair did not go far beyond and collapsed right under.

Besides the technical reasons, continued apprehension regarding the Euro Zone deficit crisis probably weighted down on the EUR/USD too. The cut of Spain’s rating by Moody’s created a knee jerk risk aversion reaction and the EUR/USD dipped below 1.38. Traders trying to speculate a hike back to 1.4 were probably wiped off of their positions.

Besides the Euro Zone woes, the US Unemployment Claims also came out worst than expected. This was a far cry from the previous release where it was much better than expected. Risk aversion was strong.

Towards the end of the week, better than expected US Retail Sales gave relieve to sentiments. This probably helped mitigate the effects from the previous dismay releases and the Japanese Earthquake.

***

It was reported that a summit in Brussels consisting of Eurozone leaders have reached an in principle agreement on a pact for the Euro to enable the coordination of economic policies. In talks is also the establishment of the new European Stability Mechanism. Any progress on this will probably spark increased optimism as the markets longs for a stabilized Euro Zone. While these developments sound bullish indeed, of concern is probably still the various troubled countries of the Euro Zone. Greece, Ireland, Portugal and even Spain whose ratings were cut by Moody’s recently. I mentioned before that the Euro Zone is a diverse region with many different economic strengths and weaknesses and hence any coordinated development will probably be challenging.

The US has had a series of good economic data in recent times and this are perking up sentiments towards the US. The upcoming week features the US Federal Funds Rate and i expect that many investors will be playing close attention to signs of future policy direction.

Besides the US Federal Funds Rate decision, we also have other important economic data such as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

Trade Safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Read more Forex Articles and Daily EUR/USD Reviews by The Forex Koala at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view Daily EUR/USD Reviews.

Click here to read the full article.

March 12th, 2011 @ 1:54 pm by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

The EURUSD was corrected lower this week. The bearish movement was triggered by a shooting star candle stick formation which appeared on daily chart on Monday after the failure to make a clear break above 1.4000 key resistance area but found a good support at 1.3740/60 which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4035 as I already mentioned in my daily outlook on Friday. As long as price moves below 1.4035, this bearish correction scenario should remain intact and for the upcoming week, 1.3740/60 – 1.4035 will be a key support/resistance to be watched closely. I will write more details about daily/intraday analysis next week but now let’s see from a broader outlook from a weekly chart point of view in order to make a projection about how high Euro can go if the bullish scenario continues. As you can see on my weekly chart below, price has been moving in a bearish channel since the fall from 1.6038 on July 2008 suggests a bearish weekly outlook. If, the shooting star bearish scenario (daily chart) fail next week and we have a clear break above 1.4035, the upside scenario seems limited as a strong resistance could be found around the upper line of the bearish channel which probably located around 1.4281 region and may create big downside move from there, probably testing 1.3000 even lower. On the other hand, a violation to the bearish channel would continue the bullish outlook at least testing 1.5143 (November 2009 high).

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

Click here to read the full article.

March 11th, 2011 @ 5:50 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, made a clear break below 1.3860/30 important intraday support and hit 1.3774. The intraday technical bias remains strongly bearish targeting 1.3740/60, which is a key support area but note that the major bullish scenario should remain intact. As you can see on my h4 chart below, we also have a trend line support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4035, both located around 1.3740/60 and that is why I consider 1.3740/60 as a key and important support level at this phase. A clear break below those technical support area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3590, (38.2% Fibo) even back to 1.3427 (50% Fibo) which could cancel the major bullish outlook. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.3860 (former support). A clear break above that area would pause the intraday bullish bias probably testing 1.3940, but it’s too early to say that the bearish correction is over until we have a clear above 1.4035.

Click here to read the full article.

March 11th, 2011 @ 5:43 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 114.20. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 114.00 support area, but there is where I will open a long position as I see the current bearish pressure is a normal pullback after the breakout above the range area which give me the best entry with good risk – reward ratio, still targeting 116.35. A clear break below 114.00 would cancel my bullish outlook and could produce a false breakout scenario and change my intraday bias to bearish at least targeting 113.10/00.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY was unable to make a clear break above 134.20 yesterday and significantly down and hit 132.90. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the overall technical bias remains more to the upside. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. Aggressive intraday traders can still long around 132.50 with stop loss below 131.75 while conservative traders can long around 131.75 (the lower line of the bullish channel) with smaller stop loss. On the upside, we need a clear break above 134.20 to continue the bullish scenario testing 135.50 key resistance area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact not only change the intraday bias to bearish targeting 0.9942 – 0.9865 but also could create bigger downside correction scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.0070. A clear break above that area and a daily close back inside the rising wedge would lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear and my rising wedge bearish technical scenario would be a little bit mess and could give another chance for a retest of 1.0256 all time high.

Click here to read the full article.

March 11th, 2011 @ 5:37 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD also had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, convincingly broke below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below and hit 1.6038. The intraday bias remains strongly bearish especially if price able to make another strong break below 1.6030 targeting 1.5950 key support area. However my medium outlook remains sideways for this pair and only a clear break below 1.5950 would change my medium technical bias to bearish. Immediate resistance at 1.6120/50. A clear break above that area would pause the bearish bias but unless we have a clear break above 1.6300 the major bullish continuation scenario can not be confirmed.

Click here to read the full article.

March 11th, 2011 @ 5:31 am by Setyo Wibowo

Click here to read the full article.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped above the neckline and 83.05 yesterday but unable to maintain its bullish momentum and now back below the neckline. Although the “head and shoulders’ bearish scenario is losing its momentum now, unless we have a clear and consistent move above 83.05 and the neckline, the bearish scenario should remain intact. I am sure that you are already boring with this H&S view, so let’s take another technical view. As you can see on my h4 chart below, the pair has been moving in a big triangle formation indicates consolidation phase and need a clear break from the triangle to see clearer direction which unlikely to happen this week. On the upside, a consistent move above the neckline and 83.05 would trigger further bullish momentum testing 83.96 (the head). A clear break above 83.96 could be the beginning of a new bullish phase as price also has move above the triangle.

Click here to read the full article.

Our Global Forex Community

Follow us on Twitter! Join us on Facebook! Watch us on YouTube! Stumble Us!

Advertising

Next Free Forex Webinar

Free Market Commentaries

Advertising

Blog Archive

Forex Links

Educational Partners

The Geek Knows
AgriMoney.com
Traders' Magazine

Finance Blogs Blogarama - The Blog Directory