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2011 March

March 15th, 2011 @ 5:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday but still unable to make a clear break above 1.4000 – 1.4035 key resistance area so far. There are no changes in my h4 chart outlook, where price still consolidating after the strong bullish movement from 1.2873, moving in a range area between 1.4035 – 1.3740 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3860. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.3740 key support area. The shooting star bearish scenario seems to lose its momentum now, diminishing the bearish outlook but we still need a clear break above 1.4035 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.4150 and 1.4281 this week as the shooting star bearish scenario would no longer valid.

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March 15th, 2011 @ 5:46 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 114.80 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 113.23 earlier today in Asian session. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a triangle formation indicates consolidation and need a clear break from the triangle to see clearer intraday bias. A break below the triangle and consistent move below 113.20 would trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.90/50 while a break above the triangle and consistent move above 114.60 would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 115.00 and keep my bullish scenario targeting 116.35 remains strong. I think market sentiment still influenced by the Japan condition after the national disaster which keeps direction remains tricky.


GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 132.34 but whipsawed strongly to the downside earlier today in Asian session and hit 131.07. This fact keeps the technical bearishness intact with nearest bearish target around 129.50. On the upside, only a move back above 132.50 would be a threat to the bearish scenario retesting 134.20 resistance area even higher. I think market sentiment still influenced by the Japan condition after the national disaster which keeps direction remains tricky.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday but fell significantly to the downside and hit 0.9924 earlier today in Asian session. Although the bias is strongly bearish in nearest term and my bearish mode is now activated, we know that this pair has no clear direction so far, move up and down without consistent momentum and the condition could remain tricky in nearest future. Immediate resistance at 1.0040. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and keeps us in an unclear condition testing 1.0100/50 resistance area. On the downside, another strong break below 0.9924 would trigger further bearish pressure targeting 0.9865 even lower.

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March 15th, 2011 @ 5:40 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6197 but corrected lower significantly earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.6112. On h4 chart below you can see that price is now back below the bullish channel. Also, since the fall from 1.6300, price still making lower high suggests that the downside pullback scenario testing 1.5950 key support area remains intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.6070. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.6030 – 1.5950 support area. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.6200 to stop this bearish scenario retesting 1.6300 key resistance area and keep the bullish continuation scenario remains strong.

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March 15th, 2011 @ 5:36 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The upside pressure looks limited so far and price made another move below the triangle indicates the downside pressure remains strong although still unable to make a consistent and daily close below the triangle. The bias remains neutral both in short and medium term until we have a daily close below or above the triangle. Immediate support at 81.20. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish targeting 80.90 – 80.30 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 82.00. Clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 82.50 – 83.05 but as long as price moves inside the triangle, overall price is still in a consolidation phase.

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March 15th, 2011 @ 5:32 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday and slipped below 0.9230 earlier today in Asian session but still unable to consistently move below 0.9230 so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9200 targeting 0.9100 before testing 0.9000. Immediate resistance at 0.9270. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9330/68 but the major scenario remains strongly to the downside.

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March 14th, 2011 @ 6:57 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to break below 1.3740/60 support area on Friday and whipsawed to the upside and hit 1.3952 earlier today in Asian session. The intraday bias is more to the upside now especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.3950 retesting 1.4035 but as long as price stays below 1.4035 the shooting star bearish scenario which seen on March 07 remains intact and only a clear break above 1.4035 would cancel the bearish scenario and continue the bullish outlook testing 1.4281 this week.  Immediate support at 1.3860. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.3740/60 key support area and keep the shooting star bearish scenario remains strong.

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March 14th, 2011 @ 6:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY slipped below 114.00 on Friday after the earthquake and Tsunami in Japan triggered broad Yen strength, but price recovered quickly to the upside and now back above 114.00. The market sentiment during a natural disaster can change very fast to the opposite direction and the fact that price able to move back above 114.00 keeps my bullish outlook intact with nearest bullish target remains around 116.35. On the downside, only a daily close below 114.00 would be a serious threat to my bullish outlook at least testing 113.00 support area.


GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday, broke below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. This bearish momentum was triggered by a broad Yen strength after the earthquake and Tsunami in Japan. While technical outlook has change to a bearish view now targeting 129.50, things can be very tricky now as market sentiment to a natural disaster can change quickly to the opposite direction. Immediate resistance at 132.90. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 133.70 and 134.20 resistance area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.9967, but whipsawed strongly to the upside topped at 1.0157 and traded lower around 1.0080 at the time I wrote this comment earlier today in Asian session. My intraday outlook is a little bit mess. My intraday bias is neutral now and I don’t think now is the best time to trade. I’m only interested to short around 1.0256 due to a good risk – reward ratio there or reactivate my bearish mode on a clear break below the rising wedge formation and a daily close below 1.0030 targeting 0.9942 – 0.9865. On the upside, a clear break above 1.0256 would triggered further bullish scenario aiming for new all time higher which is projected around 1.0300 – 1.0500.

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March 14th, 2011 @ 6:46 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.5976 but whipsawed to the upside and hit 1.6089 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I think as long as price able to stay below the bullish channel price is still in a bearish phase after the fall from 1.6300 key resistance area. My medium outlook remains neutral and on the downside we should pay attention to the 1.5950 key support area as we would need a clear break below that support area to continue the bearish scenario. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.6150. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish retesting 1.6300 key resistance area and would give the bullish continuation scenario another chance.

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