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2010 January

January 21st, 2010 @ 4:25 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

Good day to all.

Tomorrow is FRIDAYYYYYYYYYYY!

The day before the next two days we call the weekend. I am definitely going to train up my L4D2!

Like a roller coaster, the EUR/USD rushes on and is fast approaching the major support of 1.4000.

In the meanwhile, the S&P 500 bashes towards the support of 1120 too.

Oil tries hard to resist and is currently at $75+.

Gold the biggest winner turned loser, gives up and is currently at $1094+.

***

With the major markets and indexes red, we can probably conclude that a correction is taking place. Now do not be surprised. You don’t think that prices will go up sky high ever and ever ya? Nah. The markets never move in a straight line.

I had a reader writing to me that he got margin called and i feel sad. As you know, i feel that money is never easy to come by and hence we need to make the best out of our investments. Folks, do remember that we always must trade the chart and not go against momentum.

One of the main reason for the current bearish gala is probably what you have been hearing about for sometime now. China’s increasingly active stance on the need to curb speculative growth and bubbles. China is now the world’s second largest economy and investors are probably counting on China to stimulate a global growth. With the party cut short, investors are apprehensive and hence risk aversion strikes.

Add on the series of poor releases streaming out of the EURO zone and US, tada!!! a perfect cocktail of correction.

If the bulls attempt to stop this onslaught, we may see 1.4080/1.4150.

If the bears show no mercy and marches on, 1.4000 and after which 1.3940 may be tested.

***

I love coffee and i can drink up to 5 cups a day! The best thing is after which, i can still fall asleep easy. LOL this is the koala in me. Tell me about the koala in you ok?

Trade safely!

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

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January 21st, 2010 @ 4:10 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (Jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Notice:

I will be presenting a free Level 1 class on the Probability Study Technique on Friday 22 January. This time the class will start at 1PM EST time to accommodate US clients. You will have to register here:  http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/free.php

Probability Studies:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4250
Bullish Probability above: 1.4250
Significant resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
Significant support:1.3750

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6270
Bullish Probability above: 1.6400
Significant resistance: 1.6400, 1.6420
Significant support:1.5890

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9130
Bullish Probability above: 0.9130
Significant resistance: 0.9200
Significant support:0.8950

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 91.35
Bearish Probability below: 91.35
Significant support: 90.35
Significant resistance:93.00

This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

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January 21st, 2010 @ 2:31 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
As I had expected, the EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4080 and closed at 1.4104. The combination of triangle and 1.4250 key support level breakdown produced significant power to the bearish pressure. The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.4000 psychological level. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3750 in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.4150. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 1.4250 area but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and stay with sell on the rallies strategy.

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January 21st, 2010 @ 2:24 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 128.40 and closed at 128.67. The bias should remains to the downside but as you can see on my daily chart below this pair seems to have a strong support at the trendline support area (red). A move back above 129.00 area should at least give us a signal that rejection to move below the trendline support could trigger some upside correction towards 130.50 area. However once the trendline support is broken, the bearish pressure should continue its momentum targeting 126.89 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, still trapped in the triangle area. Since we still have no significant technical movement, I think we are still in no trading zone and need a break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Breakout from the triangle should trigger further bullish scenario towards 153.22 while a breakdown below the triangle should trigger further bearish pressure towards 145.50 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9071 and closed at 0.9099 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session traded around 0.9129 at the time I wrote this comment. I think the pressure should remains to the downside but we need a consistent move below 0.9090 area to confirm bearish scenario testing 0.9000 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9170. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

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January 21st, 2010 @ 2:18 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by move back below the trendline, bottomed at 1.6243 and closed at 1.6289. This fact should be seen as potential false breakout scenario which should trigger further downside pressure. However we need a consistent move below 1.6250 area to confirm the bearish scenario targeting 1.6113 and 1.6040 area. Break below 1.6040/00 area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling towards 1.5800 in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.6350. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term.

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January 21st, 2010 @ 2:14 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday indicating consolidation. We have no significant technical movement so far, so I am still expecting a range area of 91.85 – 90.15/30. I think the best strategy remains to long around 90.15/30 area or to short around 91.85 with tight stop loss. Break above 91.85 should be seen as bearish failure and trigger further bullish momentum towards 93.75 while break below 90.15/30 area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 88.00 area.

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January 21st, 2010 @ 2:06 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0461 and closed at 1.0439. The bias should remains to the upside targeting 1.0507. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 1.0360 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term.

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January 20th, 2010 @ 7:42 pm by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek

Below follows probability studies as a recap for the current US session and what we can expect in the Asian session later:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4250
Bullish Probability above: 1.4250
Significant resistance: 1.4250, 1.4275
Significant support:NA

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6291
Bullish Probability above: 1.6400
Significant resistance: 1.6400
Significant support:1.5890

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9120
Bullish Probability above: 0.9120
Significant resistance: 0.9120, 0.9180
Significant support:NA

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 91.10
Bearish Probability below: 90.30
Significant support: 90.30
Significant resistance:93.20

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

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