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2009 June

June 13th, 2009 @ 12:41 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Sat, 13th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made indecisive movement this week. On daily chart below we have triangle formation after bullish movement indicating consolidation phase. We need to have significant movement to find clearer direction. Below are my key levels to watch for the upcoming week:

1. 1.3790: Should be a strong support at this phase, 38.2 % Fibo retracement of 1.2886 – 1.4336. Break below this level should trigger further weakness for the euro challenging 1.3600 or even 1.3450 area.

2. 1.4176: This level is one of my bullish target (see my May 23th commentary) which is 50% Fibo retracement of 1.6037 – 1.2327. Should be a strong and important resistance. Break above this level should trigger further bullish scenario back towards 1.4350 area.

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week :)

eurusdsummary

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June 11th, 2009 @ 11:50 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 12th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4176 but failed to stay above 1.4141 area and closed lower at 1.4106. For me this fact indicating unclear direction for both nearest and medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4176 (yesterday’s high and 50% Fibo Retracement of 1.6037 – 1.2327). Consistent movement above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.4240. Initial support at  1.4000 – 1.4050 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurusd4hchart4

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3974
  • S2= 1.3843
  • S3= 1.3742
  • R1= 1.4206
  • R2= 1.4307
  • R3= 1.4438

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.6619 and closed at 1.6589. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have important resistance around 1.6660 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6800 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting a potential minor downside pullback testing 1.6530 and 1.6475 support area.

gbpusd4hchart3

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.6412
  • S2= 1.6235
  • S3= 1.6132
  • R1= 1.6692
  • R2= 1.6795
  • R3= 1.6972

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. For me this fact confirm the consolidation phase and no trading zone as the pair is still trapped in triangle area (as shown in h4 chart below). Immediate support is seen at 97.20 followed by 96.60. Initial resistance at 98.50 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdjpy4hchart4

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.09
  • S2= 96.56
  • S3= 95.85
  • R1= 98.33
  • R2= 99.04
  • R3= 99.57

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had significant bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.0649 and closed at 1.0700. On h4 chart below we can see that the triangle has been violated to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we have hammer candlestick formation as a potential warning of bearish exhaustion and upside pullback. I don’t like technical analysis contradiction, so I think it’s better to stay away now. Immediate support is seen at 1.0615. Initial resistance at 1.0760.

usdchf4hchart6

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0620
  • S2= 1.0540
  • S3= 1.0432
  • R1= 1.0808
  • R2= 1.0916
  • R3= 1.0996

Have a great day!

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June 11th, 2009 @ 6:28 am by Johan Kriek

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Hi there fellow traders!

Please view a video of the EUR’ s direction of highest probability for the european and us session for today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVk1zDwpg90[/youtube]

Just a few notes:

Resistance = 1.4130 (intermediate bearish trendline resistance as discussed in the video)

Support = 1.3900 (60minute trend support as discussed in the video)

Also note that the market is in consolidation mode.  The ECB’s monthly bulletin could spark a volatile move when it is released at 8am GMT

HEADLINE NEWS:

June 10 (Bloomberg) — “Russia may switch some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries to International Monetary Fund bonds, the central bank said today. The comment drove Treasuries and the dollar lower”

In the US session later I will be watching Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures for additional movement

Enjoy!

Johan Kriek

jkriek@fxinstructor.com

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June 10th, 2009 @ 11:42 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 11th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is retesting the bullish trendline. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stay away now and wait for further development. Immediate support is seen at 1.3880 followed by 1.3790. Initial resistance at 1.4141 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4240. CCI in neutral area both in h4 and daily chart.

eurusd4hchart3

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3885
  • S2= 1.3787
  • S3= 1.3659
  • R1= 1.4111
  • R2= 1.4239
  • R3= 1.4337

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.6471 but the bullish power seemed limited as the pair closed lower at 1.6356. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish scenario in medium term remains intact. Immediate support is seen at 1.6315 followed by 1.6215. Initial resistance at 1.6471 (yesterday’s high) Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum retesting 1.6660 area. CCI in neutral area on h1 chart.

gbpusd4hchart2

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.6240
  • S2= 1.6124
  • S3= 1.6009
  • R1= 1.6471
  • R2= 1.6586
  • R3= 1.6702

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 98.42 and closed at 98.09. For me this fact indicating unclear direction for nearest term as the pair still moving in triangle area on daily chart (consolidation). Immediate resistance is seen at 98.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 99.70 area. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

usdjpydaily2

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.30
  • S2= 96.52
  • S3= 95.96
  • R1= 98.64
  • R2= 99.20
  • R3= 99.98

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we have a triangle formation indicating consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are now in no trading zone. Immediate support is seen at 1.0720 (yesterday’s low). Initial resistance at 1.0880. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

usdchf4hchart5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0729
  • S2= 1.0656
  • S3= 1.0593
  • R1= 1.0865
  • R2= 1.0928
  • R3= 1.1001

Have a great day!

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June 10th, 2009 @ 12:15 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 10th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish power failed to break below 1.3790 support area and support trendline still hold. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have important resistance around 1.4100 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.4240 area. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.4050 – 1.3980 support. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone.

eurusd4hchart2

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3910
  • S2= 1.3757
  • S3= 1.3663
  • R1= 1.4157
  • R2= 1.4251
  • R3= 1.4404

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also had bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support and 1.5790 area provided strong support area for medium term. The minor bearish channel has been violated to the upside suggesting potential bullish outlook testing 1.6660 (June 03 high) area in medium term. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6435. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside pressure testing 1.6230 support area. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone. Be very patient at this phase.

gbpusd4hchart1

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.6071
  • S2= 1.5840
  • S3= 1.5696
  • R1= 1.6446
  • R2= 1.6590
  • R3= 1.6821

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 97.24 and closed at 97.36. From bigger point of view on daily chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in triangle formation indicating consolidation phase. However the bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 96.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 97.90 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdjpydaily1

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.88
  • S2= 96.40
  • S3= 95.57
  • R1= 98.19
  • R2= 99.02
  • R3= 99.50

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF failed to continue it’s bullish momentum. On h4 chart below we can see that price made a false breakout from trendline resistance indicating bullish scenario failure. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0690. However CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 1.0810 resistance area. Break above that area should lead us to no trading zone.

usdchf4hchart3

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0712
  • S2= 1.0642
  • S3= 1.0522
  • R1= 1.0902
  • R2= 1.1022
  • R3= 1.1092

Have a great day!

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June 8th, 2009 @ 11:53 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 09th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3803 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the price closed higher at 1.3902. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We might have another downside attempt today and any movement below 1.3790 support area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.3650. Immediate resistance at 1.4000 – 1.4050 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

eurusdh4chart3

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

•    S1= 1.3803
•    S2= 1.3704
•    S3= 1.3605
•    R1= 1.4001
•    R2= 1.4100
R3= 1.4199
GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD also attempt to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5800 but closed higher at 1.6043. On h1 chart below we can see that support at 1.5790 area did a good job preventing the pair from further bearish attack. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6103 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6240 area. CCI in neutral area on both h4 and daily chart.

gbpusdhourly7

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

•    S1= 1.5861
•    S2= 1.5679
•    S3= 1.5558
•    R1= 1.6164
•    R2= 1.6285
•    R3= 1.6467

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY didn’t make significant  movement yesterday by opened and closed at almost the same price, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. On hourly chart below we have triangle formation after bullish momentum indicating consolidation. Break from the triangle should give us clearer direction. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 98.20. Initial resistance at 98.90 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 99.50. CCI in neutral area on h1 chart.

usdjpyhourly

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

•    S1= 98.14
•    S2= 97.83
•    S3= 97.48
•    R1= 98.80
•    R2= 99.15
•    R3= 99.46

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0985 but the bullish power seemed limited as the pair closed lower at 1.0912. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish trendline has been violated to the upside, but the price pullback near the trendline (now become support). The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are now in no trading zone. Immediate resistance at 1.0985 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.1065 area. Initial support at 1.0810. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdchfh4

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

•    S1= 1.0835
•    S2= 1.0758
•    S3= 1.0683
•    R1= 1.0987
•    R2= 1.1062
•    R3= 1.1139

Have a great day!

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June 7th, 2009 @ 11:49 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 08th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had significant bearish momentum on Friday. The pair break below key level 1.4050, bottomed at 1.3931 and closed at 1.3963. For me this fact is a violation to the medium term bullish scenario. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the bullish trendline support. Break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.3790 area. However CCI in oversold area and about to cross the -100 line up on hourly chart so watch out for potential upside pressure testing 1.4000 – 1.4050 resistance area.

eurusd4hchart1

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3842
  • S2= 1.3722
  • S3= 1.3513
  • R1= 1.4171
  • R2= 1.4380
  • R3= 1.4500

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also had significant bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.5940 and closed at 1.5974. For me this fact indicate the failure of the medium term bullish scenario. The key level at this phase is 1.5950 area.  Consistent movement below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.5790 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5864
  • S2= 1.5754
  • S3= 1.5569
  • R1= 1.6159
  • R2= 1.6344
  • R3= 1.6454

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had significant bullish momentum on Friday. The pair break above 96.60/70 key level, topped at 98.87 and closed at 98.82. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 99.50. However CCI in overbought area and about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for potential downside rebound testing 98.00 – 97.70 support area.

usdjpy4hchart3

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.25
  • S2= 95.69
  • S3= 94.88
  • R1= 99.62
  • R2= 100.43
  • R3= 101.99

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had bullish momentum on Friday. The pair break above key level 1.0810 before hit the top at 1.0905 and closed at 1.0860. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0960 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.0810. Break below that support area could lead us into no trading zone. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdchf4hchart2

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0713
  • S2= 1.0566
  • S3= 1.0470
  • R1= 1.0956
  • R2= 1.1052
  • R3= 1.1199

Have a great day!

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June 5th, 2009 @ 11:17 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Sat, 06th of June, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had significant bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.5940 and closed at 1.5973. On weekly chart below, we can see that this week movement formed a “shooting star” candlestick pattern which technically a bearish formation. We also can see that the upper shadow of the “shooting star” ended at important (strong) resistance around 1.6670 area (June 03rd 2009 and November 30th 2008 highs) before slightly fell to the downside. At the same time, weekly CCI in overbought area and heading down suggesting a potential downside pressure. For the upcoming week, any consistent movement below 1.5950 area ( 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.3886 – 1.6660) should support the bearish scenario and trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.5520 area. Have a nice weekend and see you guys next week :)

gbpusdsummary

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