Forex Academy Quick Links:
Language:
English

Probability Studies

October 2nd, 2014 @ 6:19 pm by Muhammad Azeem

Click here to read the full article.

eur-audThe EUR/AUD currency pair has changed the bullish movement into a down trend in one hour time frame and now it is a bearish trend. Short term resistance is present at 1.4556 critical resistance level. Since yesterday, the EUR/AUD currency pair is dropping and this has created a bearish move in a down trend. As long as price movement is bearish, I would be probably looking for sell trades. If bullish candlestick closes above 1.4556 critical resistance level then bearish trend is going to end. In such situation, I would avoid trading and just keep re-analyzing the price movement.

Click here to read the full article.

April 7th, 2010 @ 4:10 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.3425
Bullish Probability above: 1.3425
Significant resistance: 1.3500
Significant support:1.3200

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5275
Bullish Probability above: 1.5275
Significant resistance: 1.5700
Significant support:1.4800

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9220
Bearish Probability below: 0.9220
Significant support: 0.9220, 0.9120
Significant resistance: 0.9400

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 93.50
Bearish Probability below: 93.50
Significant support: 92.70
Significant resistance: 97.70

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

To view and listen to a recording of my introductory training class please go here: http://forums.fxinstructor.com/forumdisplay.php?f=60

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

March 25th, 2010 @ 4:53 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.3414
Bullish Probability above: 1.3440
Significant resistance: 1.3460
Significant support:1.3000

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5030
Bullish Probability above: 1.5030
Significant resistance: 1.5180
Significant support:1.4810

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9155
Bullish Probability above: 0.9155
Significant resistance: 0.9230
Significant support: 0.8600

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.30
Bullish Probability above: 91.30
Significant resistance: 93.70
Significant support: 91.00

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own
trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

March 22nd, 2010 @ 8:24 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Hi there and I hope you have had a nice trading day so far. Below follows a Probability Study on the Dollar Index to show you what exactly we can expect from the Dollar today.

Now, before I start, I’d like to briefly explain the Probability Study Technique:

The Probability Study Technique is derived from the Dow theory. Now remember that the Dow theory has many assumptions but one of those assumptions are that the market will move in THREE TRENDS – the Primary, Secondary and Minor

Now, because we are day traders I will only use the direction of the minor trend to determine the direction oh highest probability. I have also added a stochastic to determine if price is currently trending within the direction of highest probability but before I confuse you, here follows my probability study on the Dollar Index:

Look at the Daily chart above:

I have identified the Primary Trend and the Secondary trend. Note that the secondary trend is the most active cycle within the primary trend

Now that I have my Secondary trend, I can identify my Minor trend which resembles the most active cycle within the Secondary trend. I have done this on a 4hr chart:

Above is the Minor trend. Clearly it is bearish. Therefore the direction of highest probability is BEARISH for the Dollar for today. If the upper resistance line of my Minor trend is breached at roundabout 81.20 then all of a sudden the Direction of Highest Probability will be bullish

So, there you have it, we can expect the Dollar to weaken today but can we look for trades right now on currencies based on this?

NO

Look at the chart below:

On the above chart you can see that I added a Slow Stochastic (8,3,3) and even though it is over bought is is BULLISH nevertheless. This means we have a no trade zone and I will wait until this stochastic gives me a BEARISH CROSS before I can look for trades using this context of a weakening dollar

Remember this is only for today…. Tomorrow the scenario could be different

I hope this has shed some light on things for you. Enjoy the rest of your trading day and I you have any questions on the Probability Study technique you are more than welcome to send me an email at jkriek@fxinstructor.com

Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

March 22nd, 2010 @ 4:37 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.3400
Bullish Probability above: 1.3400
Significant resistance: 1.3600
Significant support:1.3440

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5050
Bullish Probability above: 1.5050
Significant resistance: 1.5200
Significant support:1.4800

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9160
Bullish Probability above: 0.9160
Significant resistance: 0.9220
Significant support:0.9100

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.60
Bullish Probability above: 90.60
Significant resistance: 90.80
Significant support:88.11

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

March 12th, 2010 @ 4:22 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.3610
Bearish Probability below: 1.3610
Significant support: 1.3440
Significant resistance:1.3750

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: N/A
Bearish Probability below: 1.4800
Significant support: 1.4800
Significant resistance:1.5270

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9140
Bearish Probability below: 0.9140
Significant support: 0.9080
Significant resistance: 0.9250

Direction of  Highest Probability: N/A, wedge needs to fail or break to downside
Bullish Probability above: 91.00
Bearish Probability below: 90.50
Significant support: 91.30
Significant resistance: 88.10

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

March 10th, 2010 @ 4:09 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.3550
Bearish Probability below: 1.3550
Significant support: 1.3440
Significant resistance:1.3810

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: not identified yet
Bearish Probability below: 1.4805
Significant support: 1.4805
Significant resistance:1.5240

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9110
Bearish Probability below: 0.9020
Significant support: 0.8580
Significant resistance: 0.9250

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.10
Bullish Probability above: 90.65
Significant resistance: 90.65
Significant support: 88.11

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

March 9th, 2010 @ 3:52 am by Johan Kriek

Click here to read the full article.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.3595
Bearish Probability below: 1.3595
Significant support: 1.3440
Significant resistance:1.3775

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:not defined
Bearish Probability below: 1.4805
Significant support: 1.4805
Significant resistance:1.5356

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9060
Bearish Probability below: 0.9060
Significant support: 0.8950
Significant resistance:0.9250

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 89.85
Bearish Probability below: 89.85
Significant support: 88.10
Significant resistance:91.40

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Click here to read the full article.

Our Global Forex Community

Follow us on Twitter! Join us on Facebook! Watch us on YouTube! Stumble Us!

Advertising

Next Free Forex Webinar

Free Market Commentaries

Advertising

Blog Archive

Forex Links

Educational Partners

The Geek Knows
AgriMoney.com
Traders' Magazine

Finance Blogs Blogarama - The Blog Directory