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2013 April

April 30th, 2013 @ 3:20 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.3113. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3170 – 1.3200 region. Immediate support is seen around 1.3080. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3050 – 1.3000 support area. My major technical bias remains neutral.

eurusddaily

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April 30th, 2013 @ 3:16 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday topped at 1.5545 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 1.5475 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 1.5420/00 support area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5505. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.5550 – 1.5600 area and keep the bullish correction phase remains strong.

gbpusdweeklychart

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April 30th, 2013 @ 3:13 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 96.70 area. Immediate resistance remains around 98.30. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 99.00. My major technical outlook remains bullish but as long as stays below 99.90 we might see further bearish correction.

usdjpydaily

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April 30th, 2013 @ 3:10 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.9353. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9300 – 0.9250 after touched the trend line resistance (red) as you can see on my daily chart below. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9400. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9450 area.

usdchfdaily

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April 30th, 2013 @ 1:09 am by Mark De La Paz

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EURUSD
EURUSD Daily ChartResistance: 1.3113 moderate / 1.3162 minor / 1.3202 minor
Support: 1.3075 minor / 1.3045 moserate / 1.3017 moderate

Euro is having trouble in pushing past the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from February though daily indicators suggests we have a bullish market in the making as stochastic head up and macd’s are poised to cross higher. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with the 4H stochastic coming off overbought level while macd is up, price action itself could possibly turn into a bullish continuation, ‘rising three method’ depending on the close in about 2-hours time. Hourly charts however show a decidedly lack of momentum as macd’s cross lower and stochastic also see a bear cross. It appears that we are trying to revive risk appetite though we need a close above 1.3113 for a bullish entry or a low based at the 55D EMA, 1.3045.Immediate risk is actually bearish with shorts from under 1.3113 and tight stop above the 1.3116 highs.

AUDJPY
AUDJPY Daily ChartResistance: 101.53 moderate / 102.02 moderate / 102.63 moderate
Support: 101.08 minor / 100.38 moderate / 99.91 minor

Aussy Yen is set to close the day just around the 21D EA with the attempt at a bullish reversal losing steam, failing to see a piercing pattern. From indicators we have a confluence of bears as stochastic heads for oversold levels and macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought areas while macd has crossed up in 4H charts though candlesticks have a ‘dark cloud cover’. Hourly charts for their part look mixed with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd has a bear cross. For now we have a series of data coming out of Japan with the first turning out strong. Good results could be taken as an excuse for risk appetite with equity gains pushing the Yen lower as a funding play.

GBPJPY
GBPJPY Hourly ChartResistance: 152.11 minor / 152.55 moderate / 153.04 moderate
Support: 151.47 minor / 151.02 minor / 150.46 moderate

Monday had GBPJPY stuck in relatively modest ranges with a high wave candle in the end as we failed to get a follow through drop to your big bear candle Friday. We have a bearish confluence from daily macd and stochastic. In intraday charts we are seeing a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic just crossing lower and macd heading down. From the hourly picture we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold levels and macd has a bear cross. For now we waiting for the next catalyst for the yen pairs, with releases so far turning out to be good underscoring Japanese economic gains. Consider a straddle with buys above 152.11 and shorts under 151.47.

EURJPY
EURJPY 4-Hour ChartResistance: 128.60 minor / 129.04 minor / 129.90 moderate
Support: 127.95 minor / 127.13 moderate / 126.42 minor

Combining the ‘sunday’ candle, Wellington trade with the rest of the monday price action will give us a bullish harami for a daily candlestick pattern, possibly invalidating the notion of a daily double top. Despite mondays push back above the EMA’s we still face a confluence of bears among indicators as stochastic is poised to push oversold and macd is dropping. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with a bear cross in stochastic and bullish macd while price action still has a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Hourly charts has stochastic crossing up and macd crossing down while prices are just above the trigger of our double bottom from Monday. For now immediate risk is a bounce off 127.95 the double bottom trigger in 4H charts. A close above 128.60 could also be seen as a bullish entry while a close under 127.95 brings the daily double top back in play.

USDJPY
USDJPY Daily ChartResistance: 97.96 minor / 98.21 minor / 98.54 moderate
Support: 97.66 minor / 97.34 moderate / 97.12 minor

We have a high wave candle in progress for the daily USDJPY chart with prices stuck between the 21D and 34D EMA’s. From the big picture we see a double top pattern still with daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also dropping. In the lower time frames we have 4H macd’s heading lower with stochastic also poised to see a bear cross of its own, note we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows making up the second top. Hourly indicators are mixed with stochastic seeing a new bullish cross while macd is at the brink of a bear cross. Typically high wave candles mark a possible change in sentiment as such our immediate scenario calls for a push above 98.21 as a bullis entry. Alternative entry will be a bounce off the 34D EMA at 97.34 with a stop and reverse below 97.12.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD Daily ChartResistance: 1.5500 minor / 1.5547 minor / 5572 moderate
Support: 1.5465 minor / 1.5422 moderate / 1.5378 moderate

Monday ended up with a long wick in GBPUSD defining what could be our next higher high in the daily bullish channel. From indicators we are starting to see a confluence of buys with an overbought stochastic and macd’s rising. We also have daily EMA lines crossing higher. In the lower time frames we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has a bear cross from the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Given the long daily wick immediate bias is for a bear market with a close below 1.5466 as our trigger for a new sell. Alternative entry will be a short from just under yesterdays high with tight stops above 1.5547.

NZDUSD
NZDUSD 4-Hour ChartResistance: 0.8563 minor / 0.8577 moderate / 0.8591 minor
Support: 0.8539 moderate / 0.8514 minor / 0.8498 minor

Kiwi has a confluence of buys from the daily charts with stochastic and macd seeing a new bullish cross following the push above 0.500 of yesterdays straddle. The daily close has a big white real body suggesting that we look for a follow through rally. Intraday we have mixed signals from the 4H picture with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is above the signal line. Candles has a bearish engulfing for the Wellington trade. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of bears at the moment with stochastic pushing for oversold levels and macd with a bear cross. Immediate risk actually calls for a pullback, a possible double top pattern in the making though taking too long to get a close under 0.8539 and we will look for base building and a bounce off the said price.

XAUUSD
XAUUSD 4-Hour ChartResistance: 1477.23 minor / 1487.79 moderate / 1480.55 moderate
Support: 1462.69 minor / 1447.83 minor / 1439.27 minor

Gold has managed to rally back to the 61.8 Fib retracement level of its recent sell-off from April. We appear to have a double top with a budding double top. Among indicators we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also rising from the daily picture. Currently we have hit the daily EMA lines. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic poised at a bullish cross while macd is flat though technically bearish. Hourly charts for their part also see more mixed signals with macd crossing higher and stochastic coming off overbought levels. We have little sense of urgency though for now we are looking for a rejection from the 61.8 Fib level at 1487.79. Alternative entry will be a close under 1447.83.

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April 29th, 2013 @ 7:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast    
The EURUSD attempted to push lower last week bottomed at 1.2953 but closed higher at 1.3039. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bullish bias testing 1.3100/35 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.3025. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure retesting 1.2950 key support area. My major technical outlook remains neutral.

eurusddaily

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April 29th, 2013 @ 6:58 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction last week and hit 1.5526 earlier today. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.5600 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.5465. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5400/20 but as long as stays above 1.5200 price is still in a bullish correction phase.

gbpusdweeklychart

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April 29th, 2013 @ 6:54 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower last week and hit 97.34 earlier today after unable to break above 99.90 key resistance area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 96.70. Immediate resistance is seen around 98.30. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 99.00. My major technical outlook remains bullish but as long as stays below 99.90 we might see further bearish correction.

usdjpydaily

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