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2012 August

August 31st, 2012 @ 8:17 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as stays inside the bullish channel price is still in a bullish correction phase since bounced from 1.2041 but need a clear break at least above 1.2588 key intraday resistance to continue the bullish phase testing 1.2625 – 1.2700 region. On the downside, key support area remains around the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.2440/00 area which need to be violated to the downside to end the current bullish correction phase.

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August 31st, 2012 @ 8:11 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term but overall I still prefer to buy on dips around the lower line of the bullish channel with tight stop loss below the bullish channel targeting 100.00. Key support area is seen around 97.50/00 region. A clear break and daily close below that area could be a threat to the bullish phase and activate my bearish mode.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday and hit 123.73 earlier today. I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but this fact turn my intraday bias to a bearish view testing 123.20. Immediate resistance is seen around 124.00/20 which need to be clearly broken to the upside to keep the bullish scenario after the break above the bearish channel remains strong testing 125.00/50 key resistance area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday closed at 1.0277. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term as a part of the bearish scenario after broke below the bullish channel still testing 1.0200 region. On the upside, only a clear break back above 1.0400 will interrupt the current bearish outlook and give the bullish scenario another chance.

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August 31st, 2012 @ 8:05 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5873 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.5785. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as able to move above 1.5780 the breakout bullish scenario should remain intact still testing 1.5900 region as nearest target, but note that price has been moving sideways since Monday. Although we haven’t seen convincing bullish momentum this week, overall price is still making higher lows. Key support is seen around daily EMA 200 which located around 1.5750 region. A clear break and daily/weekly close below that area will interrupt the bullish outlook and turn my short term bias to a bearish view.

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August 31st, 2012 @ 8:02 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had another insignificant movement yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bearish bias. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 77.65 strong support area. Immediate resistance remains around 79.00/20. A clear break back above that area will reactivate my bullish mode testing 80.00/50 area. I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase due to a good risk – reward ratio near the historical/record low.

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August 31st, 2012 @ 7:59 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bearish correction bias and still able to move below 0.9650 key resistance area so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9420. On the upside, only a clear break at least above 0.9650 could interrupt the current bearish correction phase.

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August 31st, 2012 @ 2:22 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDCAD
Resistance: 1.0226 minor / 1.0259 minor / 1.0294 minor
Support: 1.0200 strong / 1.0164 moderate / 1.0122 moderate

We have AUDCAD selling off to the 61.8 Fib retracement of its May 23 rally with daily indicators suggesting a bearish markets, stochastic oversold and macd’s continuing to head lower. Note we have a wide gap between prices and the EMA lines suggesting mean reversion risk is present. From the 4H picture we have a flat macd line with the same values as its signal while stochastic is oversold. Hourly indicator for their part has a bullish divergence in stochastic while macd’s is beginning to bottom and price charts appear to have a small double bottom. Immediate risk calls for a bounce off 1.0202 possible triggering the double bottom for 1.0259. Use tight stops under 1.0202 for any buys off the floor.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0311 minor / 1.0344 minor / 1.0368 strong
Support: 1.0276 minor / 1.0255 moderate / 1.0211 strong

Aussy gave us a follow through sell-off for our daily breakout of 1.0368 Monday dragging us closer to the 1.0211 target for the swing, Daily indicators has stochastic crawling in oversold levels while the macd line continues to head down. In intraday charts we continue to see a confluence of bears from the 4H picture stochastic crawling in oversold areas while the previous candle was a closing bozu. Hourly charts however has a confluence of buys in dthe works with macd bottoming out and stochastic seeing a bullish divergence as we form a possible double bottom. Immediate risk calls for the double bottom to be fully formed and possibly triggered for a pullback to the key resistance area at 1.0368.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2523 minor / 1.2561 minor / 1.2588 strong
Support: 1.2494 minor / 1.2465 minor / 1.2441 strong

With the sell-off in late European trade we had the day ending closer to its daily double top trigger at 1.2465 with indicators seeing stochastic ease off some more amd the macd line topping off poised for its own bearish crossover. Note we however face a strong support just under 1.2465 with the previous 1.2441 breakout point and 21D EMA. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic crossing higher and macd’s heading down. This as hourly charts for their part has macd bottoming out and stochastic heading higher. For now we prefer remaining sidelined looking for hourly charts to stall under resistance perhaps signalling the next attempt at the 1.2465 pattern trigger is in the works.

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August 30th, 2012 @ 6:57 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish intraday bias. The bias remains bullish in nearest term. Immediate resistance which is also a key intraday resistance remains at 1.2588 (last week’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.2625 – 1.2700 resistance area. Immediate support is seen around 1.2500 – 1.2490. A clear break below that area will interrupt the bullish intraday bias testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.2440 support area. Only a clear break below the bullish channel could end the current bullish correction outlook since bounced from 1.2041 (July’s low)

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August 30th, 2012 @ 6:52 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had another insignificant movement yesterday. A quick look at daily/weekly chart easily reveals that price has been moving sideways in the last two weeks. However, as long as stays inside the bullish channel my overall intraday bias remains to the upside with 100.00 as nearest target. Immediate support is seen around 98.30 – 97.80.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday and now traded around 124.50. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 125.00/50 resistance area. Immediate support is seen around 124.00. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 123.20 I still prefer to buy on dips as a part of the bullish scenario after break above the bearish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday and hit 1.0316 earlier today. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.0200 as a part of the bearish reversal scenario after the break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Immediate resistance remains around 1.0400. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

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