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2012 July

July 31st, 2012 @ 5:35 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2224 but closed higher at 1.2258 and hit 1.2288 earlier today. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price is in a consolidation phase. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase but need a clear break and daily close at least back below 1.2200 – 1.2160 to end the short term bullish phase after Draghi’s comment last week. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.2400 will interrupt the major bearish scenario and activate my bullish intraday mode.

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July 31st, 2012 @ 5:30 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday but found a good intraday support around 95.60. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as stays above 95.60 price is still in a bullish phase after Draghi’s comment last week. I still prefer a bearish scenario but need a clear break and daily close below 95.60 to end the bullish correction phase and continue the major bearish scenario testing 95.00 – 94.00 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 96.50. A clear break above that area would keep the bullish correction phase remains strong retesting 97.32 or higher.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, but still found a good support around 122.50 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above 122.50, price is still in a bullish phase testing 124.00. A clear break and daily close back below 122.50 could trigger further bearish pressure as a false breakout bearish scenario could happen, testing 121.70 or lower.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish bias yesterday and hit 1.0535 earlier today. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still testing 1.0600. Immediate support is seen around 1.0480. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0415 support area but overall I remain bullish and still prefer to buy on dips.

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July 31st, 2012 @ 5:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish intraday bias. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break and daily close above the range area (see my h4 chart below) testing 1.5900 – 1.6000 resistance area. Immediate support remains around 1.5660. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5600. From a daily chart perspective, price is still moving below the daily EMA 200, keep the major bearish outlook intact.

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July 31st, 2012 @ 5:20 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY regained its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 78.10 and now seems ready to test 77.65 support area. A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the record low at 75.56. The major technical outlook is still strongly bearish, but any movement closer to the record low could attract many buyers. Immediate resistance is seen around 78.50/80. A clear break and daily close above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 79.20 area.

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July 31st, 2012 @ 5:16 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9822 but closed lower at 0.9796 and hit 0.9772 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but need a clear break and daily close at least back above 0.9850 to end bearish correction phase and continue the major bullish scenario testing 0.9900 even 1.0000/50 resistance area. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 0.9700 could continue the bearish correction phase testing 0.9580 support area.

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July 31st, 2012 @ 1:58 am by Mark De La Paz

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GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5725 moderate / 1.5776 moderate / 1.5845 minor
Support: 1.5672 moderate / 1.5648 minor / 1.5611 minor

Monday saw Cable with a long tail putting prices just under the 200D SMA once more at the close. Daily indicators has stochastic in overbought levels with only moderate resistances on top of prices while macd is still bullish. In the lower time frames we have bullish candles from the 4H picture while indicators look mixed as stochastic heads for overbought territory while macd has just crossed lower. From the hourly picture we have stochastic in overbought territory while macd has also just crossed higher. Immediate risk calls for a break of the 1.5725 moderate resistance area with 1.5776 as its key objective the high for our wide range play in the past 2 months.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2268 moderate / 1.2297 moderate / 1.2328 strong
Support: 1.2240 minor / 1.2216 moderate / 1.2162 moderate

Euro saw a close well below the 21D EMA monday following the long wick in Friday’s trade suggesting we resume the primary bear trend. Indicators has the daily stochastic coming down crossing lower under the overbought area though macd is still pointing up. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with a 4H high wave spinning top from the New York market while stochastic is pushing up and macd is heading lower, this under a moderate resistance level. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to push back up to overbought levels while macd has opened up. Immediate risk appears to call for a push higher though we face a succession of moderate and strong resistances that we prefer waiting for a rejection to happen instead.

NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8100(07) strong / 0.8127 minor / 0.8154 moderate
Support: 0.8070 moderate / 0.8054 moderate / 0.8029 minor

Monday saw tight trading in Kiwi with prices stuck under the strong resistance at 0.8100(07). Daily indicators show stochastic still overbought though in combination with staying under a strong resistance may be a bearish signal. The macd line in daily charts is still pointing up. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing up and macd poised to cross lower in the 4H picture while hourly charts has stochastic pushing up and macd below its signal line. For now we prefer a straddle with buys on a break of 0.8100(07) or shorts on a push under 0.8070, coming from our tight congestion we expect to at least see the average range with any breakout.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0500(08) strong / 1.0519 moderate / 1.0542 minor
Support: 1.0478 minor / 1.0447 minor / 1.0414 moderate

Monday saw Aussy pushing for the psychological resistance at 1.0500 though failing to get a close above the said price with only brief and limited intraday penetration. With the daily stochastic overbought and our strong resistance holding this may suggest a rejection from the said price. Note daily EMA lines are still bullish. In the lower time frames 4H stochastic continues to oscillate around 80 though making little progress in the price charts of late while macd is topping off opening the possibility of a pullback. Hourly charts for their part has a double top pattern and a confluence of bears. Immediate risk calls for the double top to be triggered on a break of 1.0478, consider sells then or on a rejection from 1.0500. From the calendar we face an event risk though this should have a neglible ffect unless actual figures are very far from the consensus for Building Approvals and PRivate Sector Credit, due at 0130GMT.

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July 30th, 2012 @ 6:07 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to continue its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.2388 but closed lower at 1.2319 and hit 1.2282 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.2200 – 1.2160 key support area, price is still in a bullish correction phase. My medium term bias also neutral, but long term outlook remains bearish and I still prefer to sell on rallies. On the upside, a clear break above 1.2400 could trigger further bullish scenario and activate my bullish mode.

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July 30th, 2012 @ 6:00 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday but overall still able to maintain its bullish correction bias so far. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 97.50 – 98.00. My long term outlook remains bearish and I still prefer a bearish scenario but need a clear break and daily close at least below 95.60 to end the current bullish correction phase and continue the major bearish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum on Friday, slipped above the bearish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 124.00 key resistance area. Immediate support is seen around 123.00 followed by 122.50. A clear break and daily close back below 122.50 could trigger further bearish pressure as a false breakout bearish scenario could happen.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.0485. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0600. Immediate support is seen around 1.0415. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0350 support area but overall I remain bullish and still prefer to buy on dips.

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