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2012 June

June 29th, 2012 @ 2:10 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDJPY
Resistance: 79.65 strong / 79.89 minor / 80.44 moderate
Support: 79.29 minor / 78.82 moderate / 78.11 minor

In the end we saw AUDJPY closing below the 21D EMA suggesting a change in bias for the side. Daily indicators has macd’s crossing lower while stochastic is poised to push to oversold levels. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bearish stochastic while macd is flat. For the moment we have mixed signals in intraday charts with prices just under our key breakout point. Consider joining the sell side after some consolidation just under 79.65. Note there is no sense of urgency to join the market. Alternatively shorts may be taken on a push under 79.29.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5545 minor / 1.5584 moderate / 1.5619 minor
Support: 1.5508 minor / 1.5473 moderate / 1.5404 moderate

We saw GBPUSD selling off yesterday to close with a big black candle following through the rejection from the daily EMA lines. Indicators for their part has macd crossing lower while stochastic also sees a new bear cross heading for oversold territory. Note we have daily EMA lines on top of price charts reinforcing the resistances. From the 4-hour picture we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is bearish. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic overbought and macd pushing higher. Immediate calls for a pullback to yesterdays move though we prefer a sell on rallies approach. Consider selling just under the 1.5584 region, note overall bias remains bearish.

AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0045 minor / 1.0078 moderate / 1.0109 minor
Support: 1.0008 strong / 0.9967 minor / 0.9921 minor

Thursday saw AUDUSD pulling back to the daily EMA lines with an intraday break lower though in the end we managed to see prices staying above 1.0008. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic pushing higher off oversold territory while daily macd’s for their part has a new bear cross in the making. Note we are in the process of taking out the immediate resistance at 1.0045. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals from the 4H picture as macd’s cross lower while stochastic comes off oversold levels. Hourly indicators for their part are seeing a new confluence of buys with stochastic poised to reenter overbought levels while macd crosses up as well higher. Immediate risk calls for a close above 1.0045 and a follow through rally. Alternatively look for a bounce off the 1.0008 region.

USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0341 minor / 1.0372(87) moderate / 1.0425 minor
Support: 1.0317 moderate / 1.0295 minor / 1.0266 minor

Daily charts has USDCAD bouncing off the EMA lines with a big white candle at the close and indicators now showing new bullish crosses in both daily stochastic and macd. Note the EMA lines continue to provide another layer of support. From the 4-hour picture we have a mixed view with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is pushing higher. In hourly charts we have a new confluence of bears as macd cross lower once again while stochastic is poised at a new bear cross. Immediate risk calls for a technical correction given the hourly charts though overall bias for USDCAD remains bullish. Look for base building just above the moderate support at 1.0317 before taking the buy side of the market.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2453 moderate / 1.2477 minor / 1.2494 minor
Support: 1.2408 moderate / 1.2367 minor / 1.2336 minor

After frustratingly tight ranging markets for the first part of the week Thursday saw Euro finally selling off as the latest EU Economic Summit gets underway with little hope of resolution for the different positions among EU leaders on joint liability and reform. At the close we had Euro still with black candle despite attempts to bounce in late New York trade. Among indicators we have daily macd heading lower while stochastic has come-off oversold areas. Note we are getting near the pattern target of a 4-hour double top from last week at 1.2381. In the lower time frames we have a mixed view with stochastic heading up and macd flat for the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part are also mixed with stochastic just crossing lower and macd also seeing a relatively new bullish crossover. For now we prefer a sell on rallies consider shorts from just under 1.2494 with stops above the moderate resistance at 1.2523.

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June 28th, 2012 @ 7:09 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. Price is still in a bearish phase after broke below the bullish channel but found a good support around 1.2435/00 which need to b broken to continue the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance remains around 1.2580. A clear break above that area will interrupt the bearish phase testing 1.2630/50 key resistance area. A clear break back above 1.2630/50 will stop the current bearish intraday outlook and turn my intraday bias to a bullish view. My medium outlook remains unclear and if 1.2435/00 support area hold we might see a potential wide range between 1.2435/00 – 1.2750.

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June 28th, 2012 @ 7:04 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, closed at 1.5567 but traded higher earlier today hit 1.5623. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is still in a bullish phase since bounced from 1.5270 but need a clear break and daily close above 1.5650 to keep the bullish phase remains strong retesting daily EMA 200 key resistance area located around 1.5800. On the downside, key support is seen around 1.5450/00. A clear break and daily close below that area will interrupt the bullish phase retesting 1.5270.

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June 28th, 2012 @ 7:00 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but as long as stays below 80.00 my overall intraday bias remains bearish. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 78.70 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 77.65. Overall I still prefer a major bullish reversal scenario after hit the record low but the false breakout above 80.00 suggests that the bearish pressure is still strong at least in nearest term.

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June 28th, 2012 @ 6:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. As long as stays above 0.9540 I still prefer a bullish scenario testing 0.9750 – 0.9800 region. On the downside, a clear break and daily close back below 0.9540 will interrupt the bullish outlook as direction would become unclear.

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June 28th, 2012 @ 2:10 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0148 moderate / 1.0218 strong / 1.0275 minor
Support: 1.0109 minor / 1.0078 moderate / 1.0045 minor

Aussy is continuing its bounce off the daily EMA lines and 38.2 Fib retracement of the June rally. We have daily indicators showing stochastic headed for overbought levels and macd’s begin to pick up off the signal. From the lower time frames we have stochastic pushing overbought while macd is up in the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing for overbought levels while macd is also heading up. Consider buys from just above 1.0109 better yet 1.0078 for a push to 1.0148. Key resistance remains to be at 1.0218(23) previous swing highs.

GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5584 moderate / 1.5611 minor / 1.5651 strong
Support: 1.5545 minor / 1.5500 minor / 1.5473 minor

Wednesday saw Cable selling off on a rejection from the 34D EMA while indicators has a bullish bias with macd flat above the signal and stochastic heading up coming from the oversold area. At the moment we are in the process of taking out the immediate moderate resistance at 1.5584. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic also coming out of oversold levels though macd is flat below the signal. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic overbought while macd has a new bullish cross over. With an hourly close above 1.5584 we can now view this as a buy at market the immediate objective at 1.5611. We are looking forward for a run to the 1.5651 key resistance area.

EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2523 moderate / 1.2875 minor / 1.2630 minor
Support: 1.2477 minor / 1.2440 moderate / 1.2385 minor

At the close, EURUSD turned out to be another spinning top Wednesday with the tighter range underscoring a clear loss of momentum. Daily indicators has now turned mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is flat below the signal line. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys from multiple time-frames hourly charts are overbought in stochastic while macd has just crossed higher suggesting an uptrend. In the 4-hour level we have a confluence of buys as well. For now look for a buy on dips to the 1.2477 region with stops under 1.2440 for a test of 1.2523 possibly a push past the said price.

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June 27th, 2012 @ 6:13 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday, but overall still able to maintain its bearish bias since broke below the bullish channel, still making lower highs and lows on daily chart. As long as stays below 1.2580 this bearish intraday bias should remain intact, but 1.2435/00 seems to be a strong intraday support at this phase which need to be broken to the downside to continue the bearish scenario.  On the upside, a clear break back above 1.2630/50 will cancel the current bearish intraday outlook and turn my intraday bias to a bullish view. My medium outlook remains unclear and if 1.2435/00 support area hold we might see a potential wide range between 1.2435/00 – 1.2750.

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June 27th, 2012 @ 6:09 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 98.73 but closed higher at 99.20. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral both in nearest and medium term but as long as stays above 98.50 I still prefer to buy on dips. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 98.50 will stop the bullish phase testing 97.00 0r lower.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above 123.00 I still prefer to buy on dips with stop loss below 122.50 targeting 125.50 or higher. On the downside, a clear break and daily close back below 122.50/00 will stop the current bullish phase and continue the bearish scenario after broke below the triangle testing 120.40 or lower.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday.  The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above 0.9910 price is still in a bullish phase. For me the best intraday plan for now is buy around 0.9910 or sell around 1.0200 with tight stop loss as the medium term outlook is still unclear.

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