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2012 January

January 31st, 2012 @ 7:54 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but found a good support around the trend line support (see my h4 chart below) and 1.3075 area and hit 1.3198 earlier today. This fact keeps the bullish intraday scenario remains strong, still testing 1.3250/75. Immediate support is seen around 1.3140/50. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 1.3075.  A clear break and daily close back below 1.3075 and the trend line support will activate my wait and see mode as a short term bearish reversal scenario might be produced. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.3250/75 could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.3375 even 1.3530 region.

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January 31st, 2012 @ 7:40 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday on broad Japanese Yen strength and now moving below 100.74. This fact postpones the bullish scenario with more bearish bias in nearest term testing 100.00. A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 99.00 key support area. On the upside, a clear break and daily close back above 100.74 would reactivate my bullish intraday mode still testing 102.48.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday on broad Japanese Yen strength, bottomed at 119.58 and closed at 119.93. Price is still in a bullish phase since bounced from 117.27 and the break above the trend line resistance but still unable to break above 122.62 key resistance area as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term 119.35 but my medium term bias remains neutral with potential range between 122.62 – 119.35. Immediate resistance is seen around 120.30/50. A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 121.00/50 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0525 but closed higher at 1.0585 and hit 1.0644 earlier today. This fact keeps the bullish intraday scenario remain strong still testing 1.0751 area as a part of the bullish scenario after the breakout above the ascending triangle. Immediate support is seen around 1.0570. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.0500, I still prefer a bullish intraday scenario at this phase.

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January 31st, 2012 @ 7:08 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5653 but further bearish pressure was rejected, closed higher at 1.5704 and hit 1.5741 earlier today. This fact keeps the bullish intraday outlook remains strong still testing 1.5780. I remain bullish on this pair but note that we need a clear break and daily close above 1.5780 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6000. Immediate support is seen around 1.5670. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.5600, I still prefer a bullish intraday scenario at this phase.

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January 31st, 2012 @ 7:02 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish intraday momentum yesterday, moved back below the minor range after the false breakout above the minor range and hit 76.16 earlier today. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing the record low 75.56 but overall I still prefer to have a long term perspective seeing area above record low 75.56 as a buy zone expecting huge bullish reversal scenario. Although short term bias is bearish note that price is still in a long period of consolidation since six/seven months ago with low volatility.

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January 31st, 2012 @ 6:41 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9208 but closed lower at 0.9174 and hit 0.9129 earlier today. This fact keeps the bearish intraday scenario remains strong still testing 0.9050. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9208. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but overall as long as stays below 0.9320 I remain bearish on this pair.

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January 31st, 2012 @ 3:19 am by Mark De La Paz

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After opening poorly at the start of New York trade, equity indices in the US spent the rest of the day struggling to recoup their losses to close just under the water line for the DJIA at a mere -0.05% with Nasdaq and S&P 500 close behind at -0.16% and -0.25% respectively. For the currencies this has meant long tails at the end of the trading day and a failure to take out the key support levels. At the close we have Cable with a hanging man while EURUSD and AUDUSD and Kiwi have big black candles with long tails, not excatly reversal patterns. From the news end comments out of Europe suggest the Greek government and private bond holders are wrapping up the debt-swap talks this week likely to a successful conclusion though the region is still at a loss over how to get Greek down to more sustainable levels. Ahead with the recovery in US markets we expect to see a test of resistances from Asia going to the European session though we now view the market as a sell on rallies the prudent course of action waiting for prices to get near the key resistance levels.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8243/0.8278/0.8319
Sup: 0.8206/0.8180/0.8155
Monday saw Kiwi getting rejected from the strong resistance at 0.8243 to end the day with a black candle and a long tails. From indicators we have a stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is also beginning to top off. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys from the hourly picture with stochastic pushing to overbought level and macd rising. From 4H charts we have stochastic pointing up while macd is heading lower. Immediate risk call for a test of the strong resistance area at 0.8243, we prefer looking for shorts from the said price. Alternatively look for a close under 0.8206 for new sells.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0655/1.0688/1.0715
Sup: 1.0602/1.0566/1.0527
As with the other dollar majors, AUDUSD saw a long tail at the end of the trading day though we still have a bear candle in the daily charts with indicators showing a bearish divergence and macd’s topping off. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals from the 4H level with macd’s dropping and stochastic pushing higher. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic looking to push to overbought levels while macd is heading up. Immediate risk calls for a test of the strong resistance at 1.0655, consider shorts from the said price. Alternatively a close below 1.0602 would be seen as bearish.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.5740/1.5774/1.5815
Sup: 1.5698/1.5651/1.5620
Given the New York rally in the end we have Cable with a hanging man in the daily charts, a minor bearish reversal while daily indicators still has us with stochastic in overbought levels and macd rising. From the 4H picture we currently have a mixed view stochastic heading for overbought levels while macd is still dropping. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic overbought and macd pushing higher. For now immediate risk calls for a push higher though with a strong resistance at 1.5774 and a moderate resistance at 1.5740 the preferred course of action is to look for a rejection. Consider sells from just under 1.5774 with a tight stop at 1.5790. A more aggressive entry will be coming from just under 1.5739 with a stops still ideally at 1.5790.

EURUSD
Res: 1.3173(76)/1.3205/1.3244
Sup: 1.3133/1.3076(85)/1.3051
In the end we saw Euro recouping part of its intraday losses by the close of the US trading day as equities managed to pair their own losses. We still see a bearish candle in the daily charts with indicators now showing stochastic come-off overbought levels though macd is still heading up. It appears that the 55D EMA also acted as a support. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals from the 4H picture with stochastic pushing higher and macd’s pointing down. Hourly indicators for their part has a confluence of buys with stochastic already overbought and macd just crossing higher. For the moment immediate risk is to test our 61.8 Fib moderate resistance at 1.3173(76) break of which calls for a tight stop to shorts and opens the way for a retest of 1.3244.

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January 30th, 2012 @ 7:15 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, but further bearish pressure was rejected after found support around 100.74 as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the overall technical intraday bias remains to the upside testing 102.48 as long as stays above 100.74. On the downside, a clear break below 100.74 could be a threat to the current bullish intraday outlook testing 100.00 support area.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher last week, topped at 122.03 but closed lower at 120.61 on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall price is still in a bullish intraday scenario since bounced from 117.27 but as long as stays below 122.62 the major bearish outlook should remain intact. Immediate support is seen around 120.00. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 119.35 and could be a threat to the bullish intraday outlook.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its strong bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.0686 but corrected lower earlier today hit 1.0555. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.0500 I still prefer a bullish intraday scenario at this phase as a part of the bullish scenario since the breakout above the ascending triangle still testing 1.0751 area. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.0500 could stop the current strong bullish intraday outlook testing 1.0400 region.

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January 30th, 2012 @ 7:06 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum last week, closed above 1.5700. As you can see on my daily chart below price seems comfortable moving above the trend line resistance, aiming for 1.5780 key resistance area which need to be clearly broken to the upside to continue the bullish scenario since the rejection to move below 1.5270 two weeks ago, testing 1.6000 region this week. Immediate support is seen around 1.5650 followed by 1.5600. I do not expect any movement and daily close below 1.5600 as it would postpone the bullish scenario.

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