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2011 December

December 29th, 2011 @ 6:27 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, closed below 1.2947 and hit 1.2886 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing January low at 1.2873. A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish scenario testing 1.2800 – 1.2750 support area even lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2947 (former support/low). A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3050/70 but any upside pullback now is normal and overall I remain bearish on this pair with sell on rallies strategy.

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December 29th, 2011 @ 6:19 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, broke below 100.74 and hit 100.34 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 100.00 psychological support.  A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish scenario testing 99.20/00. Immediate resistance is seen around 100.74 (former support/low). A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays below 102.48 my overall intraday bias remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies at this phase.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 120.24 and hit 120.05 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 119.35. A clear break below that area would be a threat to the double bottom bullish reversal scenario. Immediate resistance is seen around 120.80. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 121.50 but as long as stays below 122.62 my overall intraday bias remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after touched the upper line of the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps price in a consolidation phase inside the triangle but gives another chance for my bearish reversal scenario after hit the record high five months ago. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9980/25. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.0120. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting the upper line of the triangle and 1.0200/50 resistance area but unless we have a clear break above the triangle I expect no further bullish scenario.

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December 29th, 2011 @ 6:11 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.5434 and hit 1.5426 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that as long as stays above 1.5407 actually price remains sideways and need a clear break and daily close below 1.5407 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.5330 – 1.5270. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5500. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5550 – 1.5600 and keep price in a sideways condition since five weeks ago.

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December 29th, 2011 @ 6:03 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 77.55 but closed higher at 77.93. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and volatility remains low.  I still prefer to have a long term perspective, seeing area above 75.56 as a buy zone, expecting a bullish reversal scenario after hit the record low. Immediate support remains around 77.50 followed by 77.12. Immediate resistance is seen around 78.20/50 area. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 79.52 region. Price has been in a long period of consolidation after hit the record low and likely to stay this way during the last week of this year.

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December 29th, 2011 @ 5:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday and now moving above 0.9400. This fact could end the bearish correction phase after failed to stay consistently below 0.9320 support area and turn my nearest term bias back to a bullish mode testing 0.9500/46 area. Immediate support is seen around 0.9400. A clear break back below that area could lead price to a neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9320. My overall technical outlook remains bullish.

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December 27th, 2011 @ 6:37 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive last week, made a Doji on weekly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My overall technical bias remains to the downside but price is still consolidating and need a clear break below 1.2947 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2873 even lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3100 followed by 1.3145/60. A clear break above 1.3145/60 could trigger further bullish correction but any upside pullback now is normal and as long as stays below 1.3281 I still prefer a bearish intraday scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy as a part of the bearish scenario since formed a double top formation around 1.3520/30 and the break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below.

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December 27th, 2011 @ 6:30 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive last week. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price has been consolidating since the break below 102.48 but as long as stays below that area my overall intraday bias remains to the downside still testing 100.74 – 100.00 support area. On the upside, a clear break and daily movement back above 102.48 could lead us to a bullish correction phase testing 104.00/95 and the trend line resistance (white).

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher last week, but closed lower at 121.69 after found a good resistance around 122.62. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays below 122.62 my overall intraday technical bias remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies still testing 119.35. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 122.62 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 124.00 – 125.50 as the double bottom bullish reversal scenario might regain its momentum.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum last week, moving above 1.0080 and now testing the upper line of the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the upper line of the triangle and 1.0250 resistance area. I still prefer a bearish reversal scenario after hit the record high five months ago but a clear break above the triangle would cancel the bearish scenario and keep the bullish bias remains strong. On the downside, we need a clear break at least below 1.0080 to keep price in consolidation phase testing the lower line of the triangle and give another chance for the bearish reversal scenario. Australian banks still close for holiday.

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December 27th, 2011 @ 6:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher last week, topped at 1.5772 but further bullish pressure was rejected, closed lower at 1.5586. Price has been moving sideways between 1.5778 – 1.5407 in the last four weeks and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5650. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure retesting 1.5778 but only a clear break above the trend line resistance (white) and 1.5900 resistance area would turn my overall technical bias to a bullish mode. Immediate support is seen around 1.5580. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5500 and 1.5407 support area.

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