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2011 November

November 30th, 2011 @ 6:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. Similar to what happened on Monday, price attempted to push higher on Asian and European session, slipped above 1.3420 but whipsawed to the downside on US session and closed lower at 1.3313. As you can see on my hourly chart below price slipped below the bearish flag suggests potential bearish continuation testing 1.3211 – 1.3145 especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.3270 area which has been a respected intraday support this week. On the upside, unless we have a clear break and daily close above 1.3420, my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside. A clear break and daily close above 1.3420 would postpone the bearish scenario but only a clear break above 1.3613 would stop the bearish outlook, probably turn my intraday bias to a bullish mode.

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November 30th, 2011 @ 6:17 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but as long as stays below 104.95 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase, still testing 102.20 – 100.74. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 104.95 would turn my intraday bias to a bullish view testing the trend line resistance (white).

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY still able to maintain its bullish intraday bias yesterday topped at 121.83 and closed at 121.58. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 122.62 but unless we have a clear break and daily close above 122.62 I still prefer a bearish intraday scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy still testing 119.00. On the upside, the double bottom bullish reversal scenario remains intact and a clear movement above 122.62 could be an early confirmation to the bullish continuation scenario testing 125.50 even higher.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0076 but closed a little bit lower at 1.0014. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0200 area as a part of the double bottom bullish reversal scenario as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate support is seen around 0.9925 (former resistance). A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9800. On the downside, key support is seen at the double bottom formation around 0.9662. A clear break below that area could create further bearish scenario at least targeting 0.9400 region.

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November 30th, 2011 @ 6:09 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5654 and closed at 1.5594. The bias is bullish in nearest term but I think this is a normal correction and as long as stays below 1.5700 (38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.6165 – 1.5422, see my h4 chart below) my overall technical bias remains to the downside. A clear break and daily close above 1.5700 would turn my overall technical bias to a neutral zone but probably turn my intraday bias to a bullish mode testing 1.5875/80 (61.8% Fibo retracement). Immediate support is seen around 1.5570 (former resistance). A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5500 – 1.5422 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

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November 30th, 2011 @ 6:05 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday, but still able to maintain position above 77.80 so far. There are no changes in my technical outlook. I think rather than thinking about short term/intraday forecast, better to look from a broader perspective at this phase and see a buy zone above the record low 75.65. Nearest bullish target remains around 79.00/52. Above that the next bullish target is seen around 81.00 region.

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November 30th, 2011 @ 5:59 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, slipped below the trend line support and 0.9150 but closed higher at 0.9210. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my h4 chart below price is now struggling around the trend line support. A clear break and daily close below the trend line support and 0.9150 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9050 but only a movement back below 0.8915 could postpone the bullish scenario. On the upside, we need a clear break and daily close above 0.9320 to continue the bullish scenario and reactivate my bullish mode in the next few weeks as a part of the hammer formation bullish reversal scenario on the weekly chart.

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November 30th, 2011 @ 2:22 am by Mark De La Paz

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We can no longer call it a short squeeze if traders have had ample time to get out of their positions so we find ourselves at a loss to find a descriptive for the way currency markets continue to dump the US dollar. Among the majors commodity currencies appear to be making the most of the risk appetite with Aussy and Kiwi now in between 21D and 34D EMA’s retaining much of their gains. Euro for its part continue to see a pattern of strength from the Aisa and European sessions that fizzle going to the US trade. Once again news out of the Eurozone has been dissapoint with the leveraging of EFSF a failure as EuroGroup managed to push things up only to 400 billion Euro’s a far cry from the 1 trillion that many in the market see as a minimun needed to fix the regions troubles. Early in Asia we appear to be getting more dollar dumping following a ratings downgrade for 7 US banks though we note this is just part of a broader banking review which saw other hlobal banks from elsewhere also downgraded. The only one’s gaining has been mainland banks and we have some questions over the new methodology that S&P is applying. For now we remain skeptical about the apparent risk appitte though cautious as well on when to short opting instead to stay in the sidelines.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0069(77)/1.0115/1.0169
Sup: 0.9997/0.9929/0.9870
Aussy continued to rally Tuesday with prices now inside the daily EMA lines, between 21D and 34D EMA, though we face strong resistances at 1.0068(77) then 1.0115. Note commodity market are looking mixed. From indicators we have stochastic overbought while macd has just crossed higher. In the 4H picture we have macd rising and stochastic with a new bullish crossover heading for overbought levels. Hourly indicators for their part has mixed signals stochastic just crossing higher while macd is under the signal line. Immediate risk appears to be for a test of resistances but with a succession of strong levels at 1.0068(77) then 1.0115 and proximity of market prices we would prefer remaining sidelined may be look for shorts instead from the said prices going to the European session.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.5655/1.5681(89)/1.5721
Sup: 1.5585/1.5535/1.5489
Surprisingly GBPUSD managed to hold on to much of its gains despite coming from the tip of a triangle breakout. At the moment we have daily indicators looking bullish macd bottoming out and stochastic heading for overbought areas, note with string resistances at 1.5681(89) we have room to manuever up. From the lower time frames we have 4H charts with indecisive candles while macd is rising and stochastic has a bear cross. In the hourly picture we continue to have mixed signals with macd heading down while stochastic remains technically bullish though beginning to hook lower. At this point given all the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined. We may have room to manuever up to strong resistances but we lack a catalyst for such a move.

USDCHF
Res: 0.9242/0.9294/0.9329
Sup: 0.9180/0.9126/0.9084
We continue to see a bearish divergence in daily stochastic and have a new bear cross in macd for USDCHF though we can only use these daily indicators from under 0.9126 or well above 0.9126, perhaps 0.9300. From the candles Tuesday saw a hammer though intraday price action suggests a lack of momentum. In 4H charts we have macd’s heading lower and stochastic with a bear cross. Hourly indicators for their part are also showing sell signals. Immediate risk calls for a test of the key support area at 0.9126, any bears should have limited expectations with a move lower looking unlikely. We prefer looking for base building and a buy off the 0.9126 region.

EURUSD
Res: 1.3369/1.3421/1.3457
Sup: 1.3306/1.3271/1.3221
We have been seeing high wave doji’s in EURUSD for the past two days with daily indicators having a bullish bias though thus far Euro has been unable to hold on to its gains for long wicks in the end. At the moment we have daily macd bottoming out with stochastic continuing its push off oversold levels. In the lower time frames we are looking bullish with macd rising and stochastic hooking higher poised for a cross up. Hourly indicators has macd pushing higher while stochastic is also pushing for overbought levels. Note the past two days we have seen a pattern of Euro gains early in trading day from Asia to European open only to fizzle around midday going to the close of European markets. For now we are non-commital for the buy side though looking for a push once more to the 1.3421 strong resistance level and hoping for a rejection from the said price later in US trade.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.7684/0.7733/0.7790
Sup: 0.7601/0.7553/0.7515
Following monday upside gap at the open we have had Kiwi continue to rally with NZDUSD just above the 50 Fib level of our sell-off in the prior two weeks. From indicators we have daily stochastic overbought and macd crossing higher while prices are also just above the 21D EMA. In intraday charts we appear to be duplicating the bullish sentiment with 4H stochastic just pushing back to overbought levels while macd has been rising. In hourly charts we are technically in overbought levels for stochastic and macd higher than its signal though looking flat overall. At the moment we appear to be in the process of breaking higher past the 50 Fib area at 0.7644, a close above the level should pave the way for further gains perhaps a move to the string resistance at 0.7733.

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November 29th, 2011 @ 6:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3397 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.3313. This fact keeps the bearish scenario remains strong. As you can see on my hourly chart below, we have a bearish flag formation, supports the bearish continuation scenario still testing 1.3145 especially if price able to make a clear break below the flag and 1.3270 area.  Immediate resistance remains around 1.3420. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback but only a clear break above 1.3613 would stop the current bearish intraday outlook.

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November 29th, 2011 @ 5:54 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 104.51 but close a little bit lower at 103.96. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as stays below 104.95 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase, still testing 102.20 – 100.74. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 104.95 would turn my intraday bias to a bullish view testing the trend line resistance (white).

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 121.66 and closed at 121.00. The bias remains neutral in nearest term, probably with a little upside bias. As long as stays below 122.62 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy still testing 119.00 – 116.90 area. However a clear break and daily close above 122.62 would turn my intraday bias to a bullish mode as the double bottom bullish reversal scenario may begin to regain the upside momentum.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday and now traded above 0.9925. My intraday bias turns bullish now, targeting 1.0000 – 1.0100 even 1.0200. Immediate support is seen around 0.9925 followed by 0.9850. A clear break below 0.9850 could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term. On the downside, we need a clear break and daily close at least back below 0.9800 to give another chance to the bearish scenario testing 0.9620 and 0.9400.

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