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2011 June

June 30th, 2011 @ 4:05 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile up and down yesterday but overall still maintain its strong bullish intraday bias after hold above 1.4320 key support area and hit 1.4484. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing the upper line of the triangle and 1.4500/50 region. That area might provide a good intraday resistance, but a clear break above the triangle could trigger further bullish scenario testing June 07 high at 1.4695 . Price is in a critical point now as whatever happen to the triangle could determine the next scenario. Immediate support at 1.4400. A clear break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays above 1.4320 my overall intraday bias remains to the upside.

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June 30th, 2011 @ 4:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile yesterday but overall still maintain its bullish intraday bias and now testing the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below.  The bias remains bullish in nearest term. The trend line resistance and 117.88 resistance area could provide a good intraday resistance but a clear break above that area could change the major bias to bullish testing 119.77 even 123.31. Immediate support remains at 115.80 – 116.00. A failure to make a clear break above the trend line resistance a movement back below 115.80 would keep the bearish scenario since the fall from 123.31 remains intact.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a bullish intraday outlook since broke above the falling wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below, still testing 130.20 resistance area and I still prefer a bullish intraday outlook at this phase. The major bearish scenario since the fall from 140.00 remains intact and the current bullish intraday outlook should be seen just as a correction moves but would need a clear break below 128.20 to continue the bearish scenario as the falling wedge bullish scenario would have failed. Immediate support remains around 129.00. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 128.60 – 128.20 support area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its strong intraday bullish momentum yesterday and hit 1.0745 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0770. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish continuation testing 1.0887 even the all time high at 1.1010. Immediate support at 1.0650. I do not expect consistent movement below that area today as it would be a threat to the current strong intraday bullish outlook retesting 1.0500/50 support area and reactivate my wait and see mode.

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June 30th, 2011 @ 3:55 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile yesterday but overall the intraday bias was more to the upside and now struggling around 1.6070 region. From another technical point of view as you can see on my hourly chart below, price is forming a rounding bottom bullish formation suggests potential bullish scenario especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.6070 testing 1.6148 – 1.6200.  Immediate support at 1.6000. A failure to make a clear break above 1.6070 and movement back below 1.6000 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5950 – 1.5900 support area.

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June 30th, 2011 @ 3:52 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY bullish momentum was paused yesterday and now testing 80.50 support area. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.00 – 79.55 which would keep price a little bit longer in sideways condition between 79.55 – 82.20. I think the best intraday strategy remains to long around 80.00 – 79.55 or short around 82.20 with tight stop loss. The lack of direction and momentum should place risk – reward ratio aspect in a very important point. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market unless you are a long term trader with proper money management plan.

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June 30th, 2011 @ 3:47 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where overall bias remains strongly to the downside probably aim for new historical low projection around 0.8200. Let’s take a broader look on daily chart below to get our mind refreshed. The characteristic during the bearish momentum is how broken supports become resistances. From that point of view, as long as price stays below 0.8555 the bearish scenario should remain strong and only a clear break above 0.8555 could stop the current bearish outlook. Note that this pair is in a record low right now, which may attract some long term buying speculations. CCI bullish divergence seen on daily chart might give a good reason to do that. However, for intraday/short term trader, buy position is not recommended until a movement above 0.8555.

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June 30th, 2011 @ 2:20 am by Mark De La Paz

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Finally we have the last trading day for the month and the last trading day for the quarter. After a steady sell-off in global equities since the middle of April the  past few days has seen short sellers closing their books for a consequent bounce in global equity indices with out any resolution at all on the problems hounding the global economy. Yes the Greeks has finally passed their Austerity vote but implementation has always been the problem. They got into trouble after all when the previous governments along with Goldman Sachs made some financial gimmickryallowing Greece to qualify for Euro area membership. In the US we also have Obama finally talking putting to bear Presidential pressure on the debate about the debt ceiling.  Going forward we have had an impressive rally Wednesday that we see many dollar pairs getting close to key resistances though momentum appears to be in their favor suggesting we look for credible attempts at a break out.

USDCAD
Res: 0.9715/0.9770/0.9815
Sup: 0.9665/0.9604/0.9553
Following the bounce in commodity markets we had USDCAD with a sharp sell-off towards strong support at 0.9665. Daily indicators now show macd and stochastic clearly heading lower. In intraday charts we have mixed signals as the 4H indicators remain bearish stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is dropping. From the hourly picture we have macd bottoming out and stochastic coming off oversold levels. We are looking for a bounce off the strong support at 0.9665 with stops just under it at 0.9650. Target at 0.9715.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8301/0.8362/0.8465
Sup: 0.8261/0.8223/0.8182
Wiki is just under the historical highs of 0.8301 following a breakout of a descending triangle’s hypotenuse in the daily charts. From the indicators we have macds with a new bullish cross while stochastic has pushed to overbought levels. In intraday charts 4H signals remain bullish with stochastic above 80 while macd continue to rise. Hourly indicators are mixed as we come-off overbought levels while macd is rising. Given proximity to strong resistances we prefer waiting to pullback to a moderate support level before looking for the next surged past the 0.8301 region. Any upside breakout may be difficult to deal with given we are pushing to uncharted territory.

USDJPY
Res: 80.71/81.03/81.29
Sup: 80.31/80.00/79.74
At the close we saw USDJPY back under the 81.03 price point giving us a false break of the said price, a double bottom trigger. At the moment we find prices within the EMA lines once more just above the 21D EMA while indicators show a bear cross in daily stochastic and macd rising. From the 4H picture we have stochastic heading for oversold levels while macd has just crossed lower. Hourly indicators are similarly bearish with stochastic heading for oversold levels and macd also dropping. USDJPY appears to be continuing its ranging action from 80.00 to 81.03 given that we have just come-off the 81.03 region we are looking forward for a test of the 80.00 price point look for shorts from under 80.71.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0715/1.0756/1.0791
Sup: 1.0667/1.0606/1.0549
Given the bounce among the commodities and general dollar weakness Wednesday saw Aussy pushing past its bear channel resistance line to see a sharp rally ending within striking distance of the key resistance at 1.0756. With the bullish close we now have daily stochastic pushing to overbought levels while macd has also crossed higher. In intraday charts we have stochastic overbought for both 4H and hourly indicators while macd is rising. We prefer a bounce off the 1.0667 area as an entry for the next up leg to key resistances at 1.0756. Alternative entry will be a close above the 1.0715 price point.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6093/1.6140/1.6190
Sup: 1.6042/1.6004/1.5969
Following Tuesday’s high wave doji Cable saw a sharp rally yesterday with the daily close suggesting we are headed for the weekly SHS breakout neckline at 1.6140 with daily stochastic quickly pushing up for the overbought levels and macd looking poised for a bullish crossover. Intraday we have the 4H picture showing stochastic in overbought levels while macd is on the rise while in the hourly time frame we have stochastic with a new bullish cross with macd also pushing higher. We prefer looking for a bounce from 1.6042 for new buys to the 1.6140 region though a break of the days highs may also be sued as an entry for the same target.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4497(00)/1.4551/1.4587
Sup: 1.4416/1.4375/1.4327
Wednesday’s close has managed to trigger a double bottom in the daily charts with indicators also suggesting further gains, daily stochastic is now overbought while macd has just crossed higher. Intraday 4H charts see stochastic just reentering overbought territory as macd continues to push up while hourly indicators are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd opening higher. For now we face a strong immediate resistance at the 1.4497(00) region despite our bullish bias we prefer jumping on a bounce off 1.4416 with with stops or when we see a close above the immediate resistance on an hourly basis.

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June 29th, 2011 @ 6:50 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4236 but further bearish pressure was rejected and whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4396 and hold above 1.4320 after market reacted positively on Greece budget plan approval. Overall price is still in a consolidation phase inside the triangle formation but the fact that price broke above 1.4320 change my intraday bias to bullish especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.4400 and the minor trend line resistance (blue) testing 1.4441 – 1.4500 and the upper line of the triangle. On the downside, another move back below 1.4320 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4250/30 region and give another chance for downside attempt retesting the lower line of the triangle but as long as price moves inside the triangle my h4 /daily chart outlook remains unclear.

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June 29th, 2011 @ 6:44 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday after broad Euro strength triggered by the approval of Greece budget plan broke above 115.80 and now seems ready to test the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below which located around 117.00/20. A clear break above the trend line resistance could lead us to a new technical bullish outlook testing 123.31 in longer term view. Immediate support at 115.80 – 116.00. A clear break back below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep price below the trend line resistance and keep the bearish scenario since the fall from 123.31 remains intact.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish intraday momentum yesterday and broke above the falling wedge as you can see on my hourly chart below suggests potential further bullish pressure testing 130.20 in nearest term. This fact gives us an early signal of bullish reversal scenario especially if price able to make a clear break above 130.20 testing 132.30 region. Immediate support around 129.00. A clear break back below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear and activate my wait and see mode.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday on broad US Dollar weakness triggered by Greece budget approval and hit 1.0576 earlier today in Asian session. This fact stops my bearish intraday outlook and the bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0650 since the rejection to break below 1.0388 strong support area. Immediate support at 1.0500. A clear break back below that area could trigger further bearish attempted retesting 1.0388 and keep the bearish scenario since the fall from 1.1010 remains strong.

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