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2011 May

May 31st, 2011 @ 4:42 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum, break above 1.4340 and hit 1.4405 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4420/70 resistance area (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.3968). A clear break above that area would be a threat to the medium term bearish outlook since the fall from 1.4939 testing 1.4560. Immediate support at 1.4340/20 (former resistance). A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4250 region but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel and above 1.4200 I still prefer a bullish intraday bias at this phase. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be a threat to the current bullish intraday bias retesting 1.4000 strong/psychological support area.

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May 31st, 2011 @ 4:36 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, break above 116.00 and hit 116.93. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 117.20/60 resistance area. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario testing the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate support at 116.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the overall intraday bias remains to the upside.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but had a strong bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session break above 134.00 and hit 134.51. This fact suggests further potential bullish scenario which started since the break above the trend line resistance (blue) testing 135.15 in nearest term. Above 135.15, 136.09 and 137.03 would be the next resistances to be tested by the current bullish intraday outlook. Immediate support at 134.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and might lead us back to sideways condition even testing 132.61 as a false breakout scenario could be produced but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term after the violation to the trend line resistance as you can see on my daily chart below but I think we still need a clear break above 1.0770 to confirm the end of the bearish outlook and might lead us to a bullish outlook testing 1.0887 and 1.1010 even aim for new all time high projection. Immediate support at 1.0650/30. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.0500. Daily CCI is now testing 100 level suggests an upside pressure but need a move above 100 level to get us in bullish outlook.

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May 31st, 2011 @ 4:28 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday but had a bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, break above 1.6516 and hit 1.6545. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6600. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.6737. Immediate support at 1.6516. A clear break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6450 but as long as price stays above 1.6400 my intraday bias remains to the upside.

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May 31st, 2011 @ 4:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday but had some bullish pressure earlier today in Asian session hit 81.36 after unable to make a clear break below 80.85 support area. This fact keeps the bullish scenario since the appearance of the hammer candle stick formation intact but would need a clear break above 81.30 to continue the bullish scenario testing 82.00 and 83.30. On the downside, a clear break below 80.85 could trigger further downside pressure testing 80.16 and 79.55 support area. From h4 chart perspective, the movement below the trend line support stopped the medium term bullish outlook and need a clear break above 82.00 to continue the medium term bullish outlook and lead us to a new bullish phase.

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May 31st, 2011 @ 4:18 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday but overall still able to maintain its strong bearish intraday outlook and stays below 0.8555 so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.8460 still targeting 0.8400 – 0.8350. On the upside, a clear break above 0.8555 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 0.8670 – 0.8710 my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside.

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May 31st, 2011 @ 2:03 am by Mark De La Paz

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After Monday’s holiday hit trade we are seeing a strong start among currencies with Wellington trade starting a rally that saw EURUSD with a seminal push through the key 1.4340 resistance level. Elsewhere risk appetite seem to be broad based with USDJPY little change but Yen crosses moving higher along with their dollar counter parts. For now we should just look for further gains amobf the pairs though we favor Euro trades as Greek concerns appear to be abating.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4382/1.4424/1.4454
Sup: 1.4340/1.4294/1.4256
After a quiet Monday EURUSD surged in Wellington trade to push past strong resistances at 1.4340 closing above the mark in the daily charts. We are also above the daily EMA lines with stochastic overbought and macd’s crossing higher. Intraday charts see a confluence of buys from the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic. Use a close above 1.4382 on an hourly basis as an excuse for taking the long-side of the market.Alternative entry will be a bounce from 1.4340 with tight stops under the level.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0748/1.0808/1.0879
Sup: 1.0675/1.0618/1.0869
With a strong start for the day we appear to be developing a follow through rally for Friday’s descending wedge breakout in AUDUSD. Daily indicators see stochastic overbought while macd has just crossed higher. From 4H charts we appear to have a flag pattern breakout with macd and stochastic rising. Hourly indicators also see bullish confluence. Use a break of 1.0748 as an entry for a run to 1.0808 stops at 1.0700. Note in the long run the wedge breakout suggest a move towards 1.0879 then 1.1011.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8241/0.8267/0.8305
Sup: 0.8217/0.8153/0.8119
After monday’s very flat market we have NZDUSD pushing to new historical highs following the break of 0.8217. Among the indicators we see daily stochastic overbought while macd is rising, expect to see the former in overbought area for sometime given the breakout. Intraday we have a new confluence of buys developing from the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic. Given the signals and the current break of 0.8241 Kiwi is a buy at market for 0.8300 stops at 0.8200.

USDCAD
Res: 0.9752/0.9786/0.9821
Sup: 0.9700/0.9655/0.9603
We have a rounding top in daily charts with 0.9821 acting as a strong resistance level. Daily indicators are bearish macd’s just starting to cross lower while stochastic pushes to oversold levels. Intraday we have a new confluence of bears from the 4H and hourly picture with prices just getting started with the break of 0.9752 the rounding top trigger. Consider a sell on market for 0.9700 with stops at 0.9770.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6555/1.6575/1.6620
Sup: 1.6512/1.6479/1.6449
After Monday’s quiet trade we have Cable on a strong start pushing past key resistances at 1.6512 while the stochastic is overbought and macd rising to continue our rally from Tuesday the previous week. In 4H charts we are waiting for macd’s to also cross higher while stochastic is rising. Hourly stochastic are overbought while macd is pushing higher. Consider longs from just above the 1.6512 region for a push to 1.6620. Tight stops at 1.6495.

EURCHF
Res: 1.2257/1.2308/1.2348
Sup: 1.2179/1.2138/1.2099
With a quiet market Monday EURCHF saw a small spinning top in the daily charts following the previous week’s huge sell-off. Daily indicators are mixed with stochastic rising and macd bearish. Note prices are well below their daily EMA lines. From hourly charts we have a new confluence of buys with stochastic just crossing higher, 4H indicators are also bullish. We prefer looking for buys from just above 1.2179, a buy on markets approach has a one-to-one risk reward with respect to the initial target.

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May 30th, 2011 @ 3:08 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, closed at 1.4315. As you can see on my hourly chart below price is moving inside the bullish channel suggests a bullish intraday outlook since the failure to make a clear break below 1.4000, testing 1.4340. Note that the medium/h4 chart bearish scenario since the fall from 1.4939 remains intact but a clear break above 1.4340 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.4420 and would open the door for further upside scenario testing 1.4560 which could be a threat to the medium term bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.4190. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing the lower line of the bullish channel but I think we need a clear break below strong/psychological support 1.4000 to continue the bearish scenario.

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May 30th, 2011 @ 3:03 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday but there are no changes in my daily technical outlook as price still trapped in range area of 116.00 – 114.00 so far. Aggressive intraday traders can still short around 116.00 or long around 114.00 with tight stop loss. As you can see on my h4 chart below, despite of a sideways movement in the last three weeks price is moving inside a bullish channel suggests more upside bias especially if price able to make a clear break above 116.00 testing 117.22/60 region. On the downside, a clear break below 114.00 and a violation to the bullish channel could trigger further bearish scenario testing 112.05 even lower.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY made another insignificant movement on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 134.00 – 132.61. I prefer a bullish intraday outlook since the break above the trend line resistance and for me 132.61 is the best place for a long position with good risk – reward ratio. A clear break below 132.61 would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear testing 131.50 region. On the upside, a clear break above 134.00 could trigger further upside momentum testing 135.15 even higher.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday and slipped above the trend line resistance as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact is a threat to the bearish outlook since the fall from all time high 1.1010 especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0770 retesting 1.1010 even aim for new all time high projection. As long as price moves above 1.0600 my intraday bias remains bullish and aggressive intraday traders can still activate their bullish mode but note that price is now at critical technical phase where movement can be a little bit tricky. A clear break below 1.0600 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish scenario remains intact testing 1.0500 – 1.0440 support area.

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