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2011 February

February 28th, 2011 @ 7:52 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday after unable to make a break above 1.3860 key resistance area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although overall we are still in a bullish phase since bounced from 1.3528 last week, we need a clear break above 1.3785 to continue the upside pressure retesting 1.3860. Immediate support at 1.3700 – 1.3690. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.3650 – 1.3600. On the upside, a clear break above 1.3860 would change the weekly bias to bullish, testing 1.4000 – 1.4250 region.

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February 28th, 2011 @ 7:47 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish pressure on Friday on a broad Yen strength, slipped below 112.08 earlier today in Asian session but still unable to make a clear break below 112.08 so far. Overall we are still in a range market between 110.80 – 114.00 and there are no changes in my daily outlook and I still prefer a bullish scenario. Aggressive traders can still long around 112.08 with stop loss below 110.80 while conservative traders can long around 110.80 with smaller stop loss.


GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish bias on Friday, bottomed at 131.11 but bounced higher around 131.70 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in a bearish phase after a failure to make a break above 135.50 and violated the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below. A clear break below 131.11 would continue the bearish pressure targeting 130.50 and 129.50. Immediate resistance at 132.50. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 133.25 region.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish bias on Friday and slipped above the trend line  resistance (white) as you can see on my h4 chart below suggests potential further bullish pressure targeting 1.0256 all time high, even new all time highs in near future. Immediate support at 1.0150. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0120 – 1.0070 support area but overall we are still in strong technical bullish bias and short position is not recommended. However, note that the rising wedge bearish scenario remains intact and things could be a little bit tricky as we are now in a critical phase.

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February 28th, 2011 @ 7:40 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and overall price still trapped in range area of 1.6300 – 1.5950. Immediate resistance at 1.6180. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish and open the door for further upside pressure retesting 1.6272 – 1.6300 key resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below 1.6030 (Friday’s low)) would continue the bearish pressure retesting 1.5950.  Key support – resistance: 1.5950 – 1.6300.

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February 28th, 2011 @ 7:36 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY still able to maintain its bearish bias on Friday and now testing Thursday’s low at 81.61. A clear break below that area would continue the “head and shoulders” bearish scenario targeting 81.30 – 80.90. Immediate resistance at 82.05. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 82.50 but I think the overall bias should remain to the downside and I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

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February 28th, 2011 @ 7:31 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bearish momentum was paused on Friday. That was a normal consolidation after a strong bearish momentum in the last two weeks and although the bias is neutral in nearest term, overall the technical bias remains strongly bearish especially if price able to make another clear break below 0.9233  targeting 0.9100 and 0.9000 this week. However, as you can see on my daily chart below, we have a double bottom formation at 0.9233 area which suggests potential upside correction testing 0.9330, but long position is not recommended. A clear break below the double bottom would reactivate my bearish mode.

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February 26th, 2011 @ 3:04 pm by The Geek

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TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view Daily  EUR/USD Reviews.

Good day forex trading koalas.

With the end of the month almost upon us, i hope everyone is green with profits. Forex trading is not an easy get rich quick method and much must be done to ensure success.

In the previous review, we noted that the week might be plagued with concerns from the middle east escalations. Sentiments might be affected.

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above, we note that the currency pair remains bounded by the range of 1.34 – 1.38.

***

In the beginning of the week, we were presented with a nasty spike down due to escalating conflicts in the middle east. The crossing of Iranian warships in the Suez Canal probably added to the risk aversion. Having said so, moments later the EURUSD spiked back upwards. The range was more than 100 pips and could have easily wiped out trading positions on both sides. The demand for the Euro was probably due to hawkish suggestions by an ECB member on the risk of inflation fueling speculations of an interest hike.

Towards the end of the week as the currency pair moved up towards the 1.38 line, both oil and gold was rising in value too. Oil was rising due to concerns on supply woes. A consequence of the Libyan protests. Gold was increasing probably due to the flight to safety effect. When the economic outlook is uncertain, gold is often an investment of choice to ride out the storm.

***

Equities were affected this week. It was reported that the S&P 500 fell for the week after three straight weeks of gains. This indicated that sentiments were shaky. As we move into the new week, the concerns regarding the middle east will probably remain. Libya will probably be a focus too as concerns are mounting regarding the tightening of oil supplies. With the increase of oil prices, investors speculate that it may affect the economic outlook. Funds will be withdrawn from other allocations to compensate for the increased spending on energy.

An area of excitement will be the inflation risk. A report mentioned that the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Vice President of the European Central Bank mentioned that action will be taken to prevent any increase of inflation due to the rising oil prices. From previous experiences, the European Central Bank is often seen as more “willing” to make use of an interest rate hike to tackle inflation and hence such talk may fuel speculations that an interest rate hike is indeed possible. This may inevitably spark demand for the Euro.

From a technical point of view, we are at the top of the range for the month and if 1.38 falls, 1.4 may be next.

Next week brings many important economic events. This includes the interest rate decision by the ECB and the US Non-Farm Payroll release. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

Trade Safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Read more Forex Articles and Daily EUR/USD Reviews by The Forex Koala at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view Daily EUR/USD Reviews.

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February 26th, 2011 @ 6:55 am by Setyo Wibowo

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The EURUSD attempted to push lower this week, bottomed at 1.3528 but whipsawed strongly to the upside, topped at 1.3837 and closed at 1.3751. There are no changes in my h4 chart outlook where price still trapped in range area of 1.3860 – 1.3420 and need a clear break from that range to see clearer direction. Now I want to look at a broader view from a daily chart perspective with more details and try to see some potential scenarios. First, look at the triangle (red) which I already mentioned few weeks ago, suggests a consolidation phase and that condition remains the same as price still moves inside the triangle. A bearish outlook appeared, when a “head and shoulders” (H&S) pattern was formed, until price broke above the “right shoulder” (1.3500), canceled the H&S bearish scenario, turned the outlook to bullish which may testing the “head” (1.4248) and the major trend line resistance (white), but need to make a clear break above two technical resistances: 1.3860 and the upper line of the triangle which could be located around 1.4000. Now let’s take a look at the bearish scenario. If price fail to make a clear break above 1.3860, a double top bearish formation could be formed, with a clear break below 1.3420 as the validation to the bearish scenario testing the lower line of the triangle which could be located around 1.3100 – 1.3200 support area. From this long term outlook, a clear break above or below the triangle could determine the next/new major direction.

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

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February 25th, 2011 @ 7:38 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3704 but whipsawed to the upside, closed at 1.3801 and hit 1.3837 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term retesting the key resistance 1.3860. In a broader outlook as you can see on my h4 chart below the Euro seems to be in a very good technical condition to continue the bullish scenario since the bullish running from 1.2873 especially if price able to make a convincing close above 1.3860 key resistance this week, which would open the door for further bullish scenario targeting 1.4000 even 1.4200 – 1.4300 in longer term. Immediate support at 1.3785. A break below that area could lead us to neutral zone retesting 1.3715/00.

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