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2010 August

August 31st, 2010 @ 4:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact indicates bullish failure and potential bearish continuation testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 region in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.2680. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone testing 1.2725 – 1.2780 but the main scenario remains bearish.

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August 31st, 2010 @ 4:07 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday after unable to move consistently above 109.20, whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 107.01, violated the bullish channel to the downside and hit 106.61 earlier today in Asian session. This facts indicate bullish failure and potential bearish continuation testing 105.43. Immediate resistance at 107.65. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 133.60 but whipsawed to the downside, break below the bullish channel, bottomed at 130.63 and now struggling around 130.80 support area. Consistent move below 130.80 could trigger further bearish momentum testing 129.20 as the upside correction phase might be over now. On the other hand, another consistent move above 130.80 could trigger another upside pressure back towards 132.00 area and lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but as long as price move inside the major bearish channel the main scenario remains bearish.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday after unable to move above 0.9040, bottomed at 0.8915 and closed at 0.8917. As you can see on my h4 chart below price still move inside the bullish channel so actually the bullish scenario remains intact, but under heavy pressure. Break below the bullish channel could trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.8858 before targeting 0.8870/15 region. Immediate resistance at 0.8966. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9040.

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August 31st, 2010 @ 3:57 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday but the upper line of the triangle did a good job preventing further upside pressure before price whipsawed to the downside and slipped below the triangle. We have not seen significant bearish momentum below the triangle so far, but I think overall the pressure is more to the downside testing 1.5370  before targeting 1.5250 region. Immediate resistance at 1.5500. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.5575 but the main scenario remains to the downside.

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August 31st, 2010 @ 3:53 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY slipped above the trendline resistance yesterday but made a false break out and whipsawed to the downside after h4 candle failed to close above the trendline resistance, bottomed at 84.50, violated the minor bullish channel to the downside and hit 84.29 earlier today in Asian session. This facts indicate potential bearish continuation re-testing 83.59/35 region. Immediate resistance at 84.82. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 85.33 but the main scenario remains bearish as long as price move below the trendline resistance.

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August 31st, 2010 @ 3:44 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish especially if price able to move consistently below 1.0220 region testing 1.0130. On the upside, initial resistance at 1.0350. Break above that area and a movement above the falling wedge formation could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario as potential bullish reversal could be seen.

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August 30th, 2010 @ 11:31 pm by Matt "NewstraderFX" Carniol

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Some Musings From Chairman Bernanke:

“For a sustained expansion to take hold, growth in private final demand–notably, consumer spending and business fixed investment–must ultimately take the lead. On the whole, in the United States, that critical handoff appears to be under way.”-August 27, 2010 at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“The economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.”-July 21, 2010 in the semiannual monetary report to Congress.

Mr. Bernanke wisely decided to avoid repeating his now infamous quote, but his assurances that the Fed “will do all it can” to promote a continued recovery appears to have had a limited effect on jittery investors. Why? Because the reality is slowly dawning on market participants: monetary policy alone cannot solve all problems, which means that growth will be weak, unemployment will remain high, and the recovery, at best, will be slowly protracted over an extended period.

The one solace that investors might have taken could be at risk as well. After Mr. Bernanke announced back on March 15, 2009 (on 60 Minutes) that the Fed was indeed “electronically printing,” the dollar predictably depreciated and stocks advanced. This time around, should the Fed decide to purchase another trillion dollars or so of longer-term securities, investors might very well panic at the notion that what had already been done proved to be insufficient at that more is needed.

The whole idea of creating another trillion dollars of bank reserves might be pointless anyway since there already is about $1.2 trillion sitting at the Fed now doing nothing but collecting 0.25% (and a mountain of dust). And lest anyone think that lowering the rate paid on reserves will somehow spur bank lending, it isn’t going to happen anyway because the Fed believes that the Fed Funds market, and hence its ability to control the benchmark overnight rate, would be irreparably damaged if a zero interest rate policy on reserves was adopted.

The point here is that what good will it do for the overall economy if the Fed enlarges its mountain electronic dollars since basically all of that newly printed currency has to just sit there in isolation anyway?

Actually, the biggest fear that everyone, especially the Fed, has to have at this juncture is this: What happens if the Fed prints and the economy does not respond? Other policy measures, such as additional fiscal stimulus which involves increasing the deficit, are not likely to be available. Bernanke acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that the cost of borrowing is not the primary factor affecting firms’ willingness to expand and hire but rather, it is the expected aggregate demand for their product which drives those decisions.

Forcing down interest rates is apparently not spurring demand for home purchases, as potential buyers wait for prices (and rates) to decrease further. Indeed, it seems as if the Fed can’t help but avoid creating a deflationary environment (and the attendant delay of purchases) as it ramps up the printing press. The law of diminishing returns in action!

Still, traders should be aware that Mr. Bernanke conditioned the Fed’s response to a lack of employment growth “regardless of the risks of deflation.” And after this Friday’s report on Non-Farm Payrolls, which at best will only show a meager gain in private sector jobs (if not an outright loss), market participants may very well react by selling the dollar in anticipation of the inevitable response from the Federal Reserve.

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August 30th, 2010 @ 3:12 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view EUR/USD Reviews.

Good day forex trading koalas!

Today is Monday and it is a blue Monday for me. I feel so unrest-ed from the weekend that my fur may start shedding soon! Arrgghh.

We ended Friday noting that the Fed chairman Bernanke mentioned that Fed stands ready to provide additional stimulus if required. This might seem like a suggestion that the Fed acknowledges a weak economy and there may be concerns regarding this. Many analysts believe that a prolong period of such extraordinary stimulus may be more harmful than helpful towards the US dollar. The EUR/USD was approaching the strong line of 1.28.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we observe a bullish momentum since trading started.

The S&P 500 has dipped slightly lower and is approaching 1050.

Oil is around $74 for now.

Gold remains elevated at $1230+, suggesting a heightened state of risk aversion as gold is usually in demand during times of uncertainty.

***

While most data were right on target today, the US Personal Income came out lower than expected. As personal income is related to consumer spending, investors tend to worry of the impact on the general economy. After all, an economy in it’s simplest form is just buying and selling. In a greater outlook, with so many consumers struggling with debts, a lower personal income may lead to challenging situations with regard to the repayment of debts.

We have a FOMC member due to speak later and hence do plan your trades well. Tomorrow also brings us important economic data such as the German Unemployment Change and US CB Consumer Confidence.

Remember i was warning about forex gaps a few times the past few days? A forex gap did develop today and i hope no one was caught by it.

Trade Safely.

***

A few friends of mine mentioned that my crazy work situation may be caused by my poor time management. Hmmm i wonder and wonder. Will saving a minute here and there really help alot? So the problem lies with my crazy work or me?
( LOL i just wasted one minute pondering on this )

***

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at
TheGeekKnows.com – Learn Forex Trading and view EUR/USD Reviews.

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August 30th, 2010 @ 2:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. We are still in bullish correction phase but my major bearish outlook remains intact especially if price break below the rising wedge formation and 1.2680 support area testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 area. On the other hand, if the upside correction continues and price break above the rising wedge, we could see further upside correction testing 1.2825 – 1.2930 region which could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.

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