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2010 January

January 23rd, 2010 @ 8:48 am by The Geek

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Hey koalas!

Welcome to another EUR/USD Weekly Review.

A bearish week indeed, the EUR/USD dropped like a rock in water and threatened the defensive lines of 1.4000

In the bigger picture, we seem to be bounded by two bearish trend lines as seen in the chart above. You will also notice the 200 EMA. This is from my learning over at The Koala System that the 200 EMA can at times help to show possible trends and resistance / support lines.

The EUR/USD is currently under the 200 EMA and it suggests that we may be continuing the bearish momentum. However we still have to be prudent as prices are known to retest previous regions in an attempt to climb back up. Should the EUR/USD fail to test and go above the 200 EMA soon, our bearish indication may be strong.

I always believed that Forex is always never about one indicator or style. It is not as easy as you think to make money in Forex 😛 With regards to this, we have to note too that the next major support we are up against is 1.4000. A significant technical line. The last time the action was here, ranging went on for some time.

As the main theme for the current bearish trend is probably risk aversion, the antidote is probably positive sentiments. Pay close attention to current issues surrounding the financial world. China’s ongoing efforts to reduce speculative growth and bubbles, Greece’s deficit problems and the latest, President Obama’s new plans to prevent excessive risk.

You have to understand that investors do not like trouble and unnecessary restrictions. For example, China has become the second largest economy in the world and hence probably no investors will like to see China slowing down. If China slows down, what will happen to the other economies that are just about recovering.

From the commodities, we can also see clues that investors are apparently pulling out from all risky investments. Once again adding on to the possibility that we may indeed be seeing a major risk aversion operation.

Next week brings us several important releases including US existing and new home sales. Home start ups bring along a string of economic activities and investors will be watching it closely. More for the US lineups are unemployment claims, Federal Fund Rates and the Fed Chairman Confirmation Vote. Oppositions and trouble to the votes may cause potential spikes in price. Over at the EURO zone, we have German Ifo Business Climate being one of the more notable release. Indeed next week is full of economic releases and hence do check the economic calender for more information. Do remember to be careful as any unexpected developments to the releases may cause unexpected price movements.

Should more positive sentiments develop, we may see the EUR/USD attempt to climb back up above 1.4200.

Needless to say, further sentiment breakdowns may have us breaching 1.4000, opening a potential drop to 1.3800.

Therefore trade safely, have proper money management and plan your trades well.

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January 23rd, 2010 @ 12:15 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Weekly Summary
The EURUSD was corrected higher during an active market on Friday but overall the Euro is under pressure this week. However the pair seems to have a strong technical support around 1.4000/30 area. We need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 1.3750. On the upside, key resistance level is seen around 1.4250 area. As long as price stay below that area, the bearish scenario which started from December 2009 should remains intact. Break above 1.4250 area should be seen as potential threat to the bearish scenario as price may continue the bullish correction further testing the upper line of the bearish channel and 1.4450 resistance area. Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

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January 22nd, 2010 @ 5:23 pm by The Geek

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Good day to all.

Here we are at the end of the week.

The EUR/USD is currently stalling. This is expected as the previous time when we were at this level, we took quite some time to move on.

Our market clue the S&P 500 continues it’s breakdown and has fallen into the 1100/20 zone.

Oil is facing pressure from a stronger US Dollar and risk aversion. It is now at $73+.

Gold is currently at a support around $1090+. Should this break down, we may see quite a drop towards $1060+.

***

The China issue continues to plague the markets. Investors are not optimistic about a recovery of the global economy without China’s steam train on full.

A new issue gaining attention fast is President Obama’s recent anti risk taking measures. While such measures seem good, investors do not seem to agree that the time now is right for big changes to the financial system. There is too much apprehension going around now and they probably do not want more.

Do note that although Greece is receiving less limelight, it does not mean that the problem is gone. Speculations continue on the probability of Greece requiring assistance from it’s fellow member countries.

The bears however did not get their way as better than expected earning reports from big names like McDonald’s brought some bullish relief for the EUR/USD.

Noticed the circles in the EUR/USD chart? These two looks strikingly similar and hence watch out next week whether the technical similarity does play out.

Bullish pressure may bring us to 1.4200 while bearish comeback may target 1.4080.

***

My long awaited weekend is finally here! This means more articles for you and practice on L4D2 for me :) I have some major work coming up next week and i probably need to rest VERY well over this weekend. Join me for my EUR/USD Weekly Review tomorrow for a greater outlook.

Trade Safely and enjoy the weekend :)

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

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January 22nd, 2010 @ 3:38 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4029 but closed higher at 1.4085. Overall sentiment remains negative for the Euro but 1.4000 area could be a strong technical support at this phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy. Immediate resistance at 1.4150. Break above that level could trigger further upside correction testing 1.4200 – 1.4250 area. Initial support at 1.4000. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3750.

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January 22nd, 2010 @ 3:21 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant technical movement yesterday by break below the trendline support, bottomed at 127.04, closed at 127.36 and touched 126.51 level earlier today in Asian session before corrected higher around 127.33 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should trigger further bearish scenario but we need a consistent move below 126.89 area to continue bearish towards 124.40/50 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Immediate resistance at 127.60 – 128.00 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY finally made a significant technical movement yesterday. Price break below the triangle, indicating potential bearish outlook testing 139.29 area in longer term of view. The bias is bearish in nearest targeting 144.50 but we need a consistent move below 145.50 support area to continue the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 147.00. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8996 and closed at 0.8998 but can not stay consistently below 0.9015 so far. The pressure should remains to the downside but we need a consistent move below 0.9015 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.8910 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9090. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

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January 22nd, 2010 @ 3:11 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6125 but closed higher at 1.6193. I believe that the false breakout from the trendline resistance as you can see on daily chart below should keep the Sterling under pressure targeting 1.6040 area. Immediate resistance at 1.6250 and the trendline resistance area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

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January 22nd, 2010 @ 3:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
My Strategy to short around 91.85 worked perfectly yesterday. Price topped at 91.87 before whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 90.11 and closed at 90.42. Earlier today in Asian session price keep moving lower below 90.15 support area indicating potential further bearish momentum targeting 88.00 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 90.30/50 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as price may trapped in choppy market again.

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January 22nd, 2010 @ 2:47 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. Although the pressure should remains to the upside, as you can see on my daily chart below, we seem to have a good resistance (top) 1.0507 area as price show rejection to move above that area, moving lower and potentially testing 1.0430 – 1.0350 support area. Break below that area should be seen as potential threat to the bullish outlook, lead us into no trading zone in nearest term. On the other hand, break above 1.0507 area should trigger further bullish momentum at least towards 1.0600.

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