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2010 January

January 25th, 2010 @ 6:44 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probabilities:

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4210
Bullish Probability above: 1.4210
Significant resistance:1.4340
Significant support:1.3750

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6205
Bullish Probability above: 1.6205
Significant resistance: 1.6380
Significant support:1.5900

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9020
Bearish Probability below: 0.9020
Significant support: 0.9020, 0.8940
Significant resistance:0.9150

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 89.85
Bearish Probability below: 89.85
Significant support: 84.80
Significant resistance:90.95

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

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January 25th, 2010 @ 3:53 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was closed higher at 1.4139 on Friday. I still prefer a bearish scenario but the rejection to move below 1.4030/00 support area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.4200 – 1.4250 at this phase. As you can see on my h4 chart below, we have a minor bearish channel (aqua) indicating that technically we are still in bearish view. A violation to that minor bearish channel and a break above 1.4250 key resistance level should be seen as serious threat to the bearish outlook, testing 1.4450 and the major bearish channel (red). Immediate support at 1.4110 area. Break below that area should trigger further downside pressure testing key support 14030/00 area.

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January 25th, 2010 @ 3:45 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a volatile but indecisive movement on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, slipped below 126.89 support area but closed higher at 127.07. This rejection to consistently move below 126.89 area could trigger further bullish correction but as long as price stay below the trendline (red) I still prefer a bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 128.18 (Friday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario testing key resistance level 129.00.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 144.60 and closed at 144.79. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 143.15 area. However CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 145.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone, trigger further bullish correction towards 146.50/60 area but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made indecisive movement on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving between 0.8980 – 0.9090 area at this phase. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario but the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a break from that range area to see clearer direction.  Break above 0.9090 should trigger further bullish correction towards 0.9170 while break below 0.8980 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 0.8910.

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January 25th, 2010 @ 3:37 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6076 and closed at 1.6111. This fact should keep my bearish scenario intact, especially if price able to break below 1.6040/00 psychological area, targeting 1.5800. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.6180 – 1.6200 resistance area. I prefer a bearish scenario and sell on rallies strategy. Only a break above the trendline resistance area should be seen as bearish failure testing 1.6430 area.

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January 25th, 2010 @ 3:31 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made a moderate bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 89.78 and closed at 89.87. Earlier today in Asian session price is struggling around 90.15 area. We need a consistent move above that level to continue the bearish scenario towards 88.00. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Immediate resistance at 90.55 (Friday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 91.30 but only a move above 91.85 could be seen as bearish failure.

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January 25th, 2010 @ 3:23 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement on Friday but looks like the pair is in consolidation phase as the bullish momentum seems to lose some momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.0350. Break below that area should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook and lead us into no trading zone. On the upside, only a clear break above 1.0507 could be seen as bullish confirmation targeting 1.0600 – 1.0700 area.

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January 23rd, 2010 @ 4:17 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

Hi all,

i have quite a few readers asking me about what do i mean when i said that the last time the price was here, it took quite long time to move on in my latest EUR/USD Weekly Review. Therefore i decided to make a chart of it to show things in a clearer picture.

We are now in the same price region as the area i circled. The circle is about 1.5 months and that is a long time! If you look further back, you can see the price creeping up to the same region and whipsawing in a bigger range.

Therefore we are looking at a possibility of having extended ranging. Of course, past experience is never a confirmed indication of the future and hence we still need to diligently do our homework. If we do get continued apprehension in both the US and EURO zone, the two may cancel out the effects resulting in a range.

Having said so, as usual any adverse development may make short of the boundaries.

Read the latest EUR/USD Weekly Review for the in-depth review.

Trade Safely.

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

Follow me on twitter

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January 23rd, 2010 @ 2:02 pm by Matt "NewstraderFX" Carniol

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There is a growing belief that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who was nominated to head the Central Bank for a second term by President Obama last August, will not receive the 60 senate votes required for re-appointment.

The increasing possibility of a  “no” vote on Bernanke, a Republican appointed by President Bush in February 2006 to succeed Allan Greenspan, is likely send global equity markets deeper into the tailspin they’ve been in since President Obama announced his plan to reign in proprietary trading at the nation’s largest commercial banks. It also would likely cause the dollar to rise in a wave of risk aversion against the euro, pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars that would be accompanied by a move into Treasuries and away from commodities. It’s the type of Major Fundamental Event that will have the market moving in a herd mentality (negative) until further notice.

No time has been set aside for the vote as of yet, but Bernanke’s term as Chairman is due to expire on January 31. Bernanke has a separate term as a Fed Governor, which doesn’t expire until 2020.

From an economic perspective, Bernanke has several very important marks against him. As a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), he participated in the Fed’s mistake of keeping interest rates too low for too long a period. The Fed didn’t begin raising interest rates from 1.00% until early 2004, over two years after the 2001 recession (which was mild), ended in November 2001. They raised rates too slowly (25 bps increments over 13 meetings through June 2006) once the tightening cycle was begun. The Fed failed to adequately supervise the banks as they went on a credit binge. But most damaging of all was Bernanke’s repeated assessment during 2007 that the sub-prime crisis would be contained.

The economic arguments, however, pale in comparison to what’s happening politically. The election last Tuesday of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts for a U.S. Senate seat the Democrats had held since former president John F. Kennedy was first elected to it in 1953 is being viewed by politicians up for mid-term elections as the beginning of a populist revolt against the government’s failed response to The Great Recession.

Unemployment has remained painfully high as Wall Street bankers are once again earning record bonuses, and the perception is that the Government and Federal Reserve have come to the aid of Wall Street at the expense of everyday workers, whose tax dollars went a long way in preventing an economic collapse.

The facts are that while Government and Federal Reserve policies over many years did help to inflate the credit bubble, they also helped avert what would have been a complete collapse of the economic system and a second Great Depression. But proving a negative is difficult in the face of high unemployment and skyrocketing foreclosure rates while the rich get richer and working people continue to suffer.

The Republicans have a vested interest in seeing economic conditions remaining poor because it will be much easier for them to regain power if voters remain dissatisfied with the job that the Government, which currently is under rule by the Democrats, is doing. But Democrats concerned about being caught up in the populist backlash are also coming out against Bernanke’s re-appointment in greater numbers.

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-Ca.) affirmed her intention to vote against Mr. Bernanke on Friday. While saying she had “a lot of respect” for him and offering praise for what he’s done toward preventing the economic crisis from getting even worse, she also said it was “time for a change,” and for  “Main Street to have a champion at the Fed.”

“Our next Federal Reserve chairman must represent a clean break from the failed policies of the past,” Ms. Boxer said.

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