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2010 January

January 29th, 2010 @ 3:12 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I am still expecting range area at 90.60 – 89.00. Overall price still move in a bearish channel which has started from January 08 and we haven’t see any significant bullish correction signal so far so I still prefer a bearish scenario and stay with sell on rallies strategy. Break below 89.00 should continue the bearish scenario towards 88.00 area.

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January 29th, 2010 @ 3:07 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make a lot of movement yesterday, but price so far able to stay above 1.0507 indicating potential bullish continuation targeting 1.0600 – 1.0700 area. Another movement back below 1.0507 should lead us back into no trading zone as direction would become unclear and may take us back in choppy market between 1.0507 – 1.0350 area.

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January 28th, 2010 @ 5:17 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

Hellllooo Koalas!

One more day to go and it is FRIDAY :)

Let’s do some EUR/USD REVIEW !

Once again I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHART WORKS! The EUR/USD tested 1.3940 and backs off for now. Seriously, if you are not in love with the koala site, love it now! I mean come on, where can you get a shameless boasting koala and charts that work more than half the time? Yay!

Looking at the S&P 500, we see signs of a struggle as the index flips between being bullish and bearish.

Oil remains at $72+. I am paying close attention to it. Should it fall below $70, we may see a new wave of recovery breakdown. After all, oil can be a clue to an economy’s health.

Gold values at $1091, showing a lack of will to climb above $1100 for now.

***

The US Unemployment Claims came in worst than expected today. Where is the panic you ask? Folks, remember that in Forex, we need to interpret releases in context. While the claims came in worst than expected, it is still lower than the previous release. Although this may not be a good clause for celebration, it definitely beats the previous report that i mentioned about a cut of 10 000 jobs in US Verizon right?

Furthermore, the statement by the Feds seems rather upbeat. Investors looking out for clues may see this is an indication of better days to come. President Obama speech on an action plan with regards to the jobs situation brought more renewed positivity.

Unfortunately, the push below the strong line of 1.4000 by the EUR/USD may suggest that the bears of the current parade may not be giving up this party without a fight. Problems with regards to Greece and the cohesion of the Eurozone remain as threats to a positive revival.

We have up next numerous releases and events, including the US Fed Chairman Nomination Vote and US Advanced GDP. No doubt very crucial events and great potential for crazy spikes. Be careful.

Bullish comeback may bring us to 1.4000/80.

If the bears decide to give no quarter, 1.3940 may be tested again followed by 1.3880.

***

A reader wrote to me with regards to proper money management and argued that 2% is rather low. 10% will be more “reasonable”. SERIOUSLY ARE YOU POSITIVE THAT YOU WILL HIT THE HOMERUN AT LEAST ONCE IN TEN TIMES?

I honestly say i cant.

Consider in spreads, times when you panic and close positions early. The few pips you took profit from before the price turns on you while the loses come in packages of full stop loses. Can you?

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE. For the love of your OWN money ( Seriously, i do not benefit when you benefit ) 2% is more reasonable. Read The story of a margin call. Tom.

Forex is never a quick road to the millionaire club. Proper money management is required so that you MAY survive long enough and learn from your mistakes.

Folks, you have me the old koala who had MR margin call at his door before. And believe me, the experience is no where near pleasant.

Trade safely please.

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

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January 28th, 2010 @ 12:38 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 1.4000 but price still unable to consistently move below 1.4000 so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term with potential bearish target around 1.3750 this week but we need a consistent move below 1.4000 to continue the bearish momentum. Immediate resistance at 1.4070/90 and the upper line of the minor bearish channel (see h4 chart below). A violation to the upside of the minor bearish channel should lead us back into the range area of 1.4250 – 1.4000/30 area.

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January 28th, 2010 @ 12:29 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation, but I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase with potential nearest target remains around 124.50. Immediate resistance at 126.89. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. Price now go back inside the triangle, lead us back into no trading zone area as direction is unclear in nearest term. However, the rejection to move consistently below the triangle could potentially produce a false breakdown scenario which could trigger a significant upside momentum. Immediate support at 144.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 143.63 before testing 142.00 area. Initial resistance at 146.00. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 147.27 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, break below 0.8980, bottomed at 0.8910 but closed higher at 0.8950. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that price is now consistently move below 0.8980 suggests further bearish scenario towards 0.8810 area this week especially if we have a break below 0.8910 area. Another move back above 0.8980 should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.

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January 28th, 2010 @ 12:19 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6242 but closed lower at 1.6167. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone now. On daily chart below we can see that the battle now is between the trendline resistance (aqua) and the trendline support (red). A Break on either side should give us clearer direction. Break above the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6456 area while break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.6000/40 area before aim for 1.5800 area.

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January 28th, 2010 @ 12:10 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.13 but closed significantly higher at 89.85 and keep moving higher around 90.01 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my daily chart below, we have a bearish channel so I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy. Expected range at 90.60 – 89.00. A violation to the bearish channel should be seen as a serious threat to the bearish scenario.

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January 28th, 2010 @ 12:02 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 1.0507 but still unable to stay convincingly above that level. The bias remains to the upside but we need a consistent move above 1.0507 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.0600 – 1.0700.  Immediate support at 1.0460. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0350 area.

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