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2009 September

September 30th, 2009 @ 5:35 pm by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

It seems the Dollar Index is now forming a falling wedge pattern

Falling wedges normally break out to the upside.

Have a look at the breakout of the EUR/GBP’s falling wedge that broke to the upside the other day:

eurgbp

Falling wedges are pretty significant and I regard them very highly. To deem any pattern significant, you need at least two highs forming the upper resistance line and you need at least two lows forming the lower line. Look at the figure below:

fallingwedge

Now, here is the falling wedge I see on the Dollar Index:

dx

First of all, price has bounced on 76.00 which is a huge support.

If 76.00 holds, we can see the wedge pattern break out to the upside and of course, force the Bucky to strengthen across the board

Enjoy the rest of your NY Session and see you in the Trading Room in the Asian session

Johan

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September 30th, 2009 @ 3:40 pm by The Geek

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Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

The EUR/USD made a new high today at 1.4673, probably brought up along by AUD and NZ.

I like it when a plan does work and for now, it indeed ranges.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report from US showed increased job loss and this gave a knocking to the currency pair.

As of writing, it trades at 1.4625, having dipped to 1.4575.

A classic case of short term risk aversion / panic buying of US dollars.

eurusd
Notice how the price reacts around the 1.4600 region.

sp500

Unfortunately, our favorite market clue the S&P 500, suffered a worst fate. Risk aversion was rampant, chipping off the index towards a support level.

I will be paying close attention to 1040.

Oil is climbing above support while gold shot back to the 1000 area.

***

One area of interest is that we have remained for quite some time sub 1.4719.

This could be hesitation before the non-farm payroll report in US or simply mixed interests in this region.

Either way, sentiments move markets and being far too long lingering just above 1.4600 with the occasional bearish attack may just rout the bulls’ resistance.

Keep your running shoes on and be prepared to react should the critical levels be breached.

***

I am home from work early today.

Instead of resting, i went straight to my “second” job. The markets and my dear readers!

It is time for bed now but sleep and i still have unsorted issues.

One of my favorite game, Left for dead has released a free DLC. New campaign for not even a pip’s cost! Maybe i should go and take a look. Should i ? …….

Trade safe !

You can visit my blog for more EUR/USD and forex articles.

Discuss with me over at forums.fxinstructor.com!

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September 30th, 2009 @ 5:18 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

EUROZONE inflation estimates and US GDP can cause a shift. Watch out

Below follows your Probabilities for today:

eur

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4595
Bearish Probability below: 1.4595/90
Significant support: 1.4595
Significant resistance:1.4900

gbp

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5870
Bearish Probability below: 1.5870
Significant support: 1.5870
Significant resistance:1.6280

aud

Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.8740
Bearish Probability below: 0.8740
Significant support: 0.8740
Significant resistance:0.9000

jpy

Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.25
Bullish Probability above: 90.25
Significant support: 88.20
Significant resistance:90.25

_______
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

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September 30th, 2009 @ 2:04 am by Setyo Wibowo

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The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4527 but closed higher at 1.4583. Although bearish correction seems limited now, on h4 chart below we still have a valid bearish channel and the pair still able to move below 1.4595 for now, indicating bearish correction remains valid testing 1.4440 area. However price is now testing the upper line of the bearish channel and struggle around 1.4595 which could be a critical technical point at this phase. A violation to the bearish channel and failure to keep moving below 1.4595 could be a potential threat to the bearish correction and aim for 1.4720 and 1.4850 before targeting 1.5000.

eurusd4hchart

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September 30th, 2009 @ 1:55 am by Setyo Wibowo

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday and we do not have a significant technical movement. My technical focus remains at the trendline resistance (orange), as you can see on my h4 chart below. At this phase, that trendline is the key resistance area.  As long as the pair move below the trendline, I still prefer a bearish scenario. However, once price break above the trendline the bearish scenario could be in serious threat. I still prefer to stay away for now as we are still in no trading zone. Immediate support at 131.20. Initial resistance at 132.40. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and diminish my bearish outlook.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The Hammer formation gave us a valid bullish correction yesterday, topped at 143.94 and closed at 143.82. There are only 2 ways of interpreting the hammer in this current situation : a bullish reversal or just a normal correction. I think the key level area to determine which one from those 2 option is valid is 146.73 area. As long as the pair stay below that area, any bullish movement should only be seen as normal correction. But if price break above that area, bullish reversal scenario will be confirmed. I think I will keep stay out from the market now. Immediate support at 142.70 followed by 141.50.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, but there has been some upside pressure early today in Asian session. On daily chart below we can see that after had a significant bullish momentum since March and peaked at 0.8787 the pair now is consolidating, moving between 0.8787 – 0.8500. I see no significant bearish reversal signal so far, so I still prefer a bullish continuation scenario. However, I think we better wait a consistent move above 0.8787 before start to place long trades. Short trades are not recommended at this phase. Immediate support at 0.8675. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.8500.

audusddaily

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September 30th, 2009 @ 1:46 am by Setyo Wibowo

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GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 1.5988 and closed at 1.5957. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now challenging psychological level 1.6000. I still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the pair stay below 1.6000 but we are in critical technical point now as a break above 1.6000 could be potential threat to the current bearish outlook and re-testing 1.6113 area. Immediate support at 1.5905 followed by 1.5850.

gbpusd4hchart

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September 30th, 2009 @ 1:39 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 90.36 and closed at 90.13. On h4 chart below we can see that the hammer formation still provide a potential threat to the bearish outlook. Will it trigger a bullish reversal or just a correction? For me, the key area is the 90.20 and trendline resistance (blue). A Breakout to the upside from that area could potentially be a bullish reversal signal at least targeting 91.40 area. Immediate support at 89.50 area.

usdjpy4hchart

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September 30th, 2009 @ 1:29 am by Setyo Wibowo

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 1.0380, topped at 1.0404 but this was just a false breakout as the pair retreat lower and closed at 1.0360. Usually a false breakout lead to significant downside momentum. In this case, the lower line of the bullish channel could be a potential target. A violation to the bullish channel should be seen as the end of the bullish correction and continue bearish scenario targeting 1.0000.

usdchf4hchart

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