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2009 March

March 31st, 2009 @ 11:47 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 01st of April, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD didn’t make a significant movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3341 but closed lower at 1.3248. On 4h chart below we can see that the pair is in bullish correction phase after had a significant bearish momentum from 1.3735. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3341 (yesterday’s high). Break above that level could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.3435 area. Initial support remains at 1.3100. Break below that level could lead to further bearish scenario towards 1.2950 area. CCI in neutral area both on 4h and daily chart.

eurusd4hchart11

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3167
  • S2= 1.3087
  • S3= 1.3000
  • R1= 1.3334
  • R2= 1.3421
  • R3= 1.3501

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4373 but closed lower at 1.4320. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. After rebounded to the upside as the trendline support hold since Monday, the pair seems to have an important resistance at 1.4380 area. So for now, as you can see in 4h chart below, the battle is between the trendline support and the resistance line. Break above the resistance line could trigger further bullish momentum while a trendline support violation could lead to further bearish scenario challenging 1.4000. CCI in neutral area both on 4h and daily chart.

gbpusd4hchart18

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4247
  • S2= 1.4175
  • S3= 1.4112
  • R1= 1.4382
  • R2= 1.4445
  • R3= 1.4517

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On 4h chart, as I had expected, after breakout to the upside from “flag” formation the pair topped at 99.35 and closed at 98.94. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have a potential strong resistance at 99.66 area (March 05 high). Break above that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 100.50 area. CCI about to cross 100 line down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 98.35 support area.

usdjpy4hchart8

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.65
  • S2= 96.36
  • S3= 95.51
  • R1= 99.79
  • R2= 100.64
  • R3= 101.93

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1356 and closed at 1.1392. On 4h chart we can see that after break 1.1360 level to the upside last Friday (March 27) and topped at 1.1547, the pair go back lower testing the key level 1.1360 again. Break below that level could trigger further bearish momentum. CCI in neutral area both on 4h and daily chart.

usdchf4hchart10

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1327
  • S2= 1.1262
  • S3= 1.1168
  • R1= 1.1486
  • R2= 1.1580
  • R3= 1.1645

Have a great day!

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March 31st, 2009 @ 7:49 am by Mark De La Paz

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Asian markets saw low yielders easing off against the likes of Euro, Cable and Aussy following a fresh round of poor economic numbers from Japan suggesting that terrible Q4 GDP results are not unique and we will be seeing more such disappointing numbers going forward. Here we note the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.4% with Personal Income for February down an annualized -2.4% from 1.0% previously as more leading figures such as March PMI came in 33.8, well below the boom/bust line, and Housing Starts contracting -18.7% year-on-year. A poor performance from Asian equity indices however meant that we have no outright reversals for the risk aversion trends in the market though the dragonfly doji in GBPUSD is intriguing should we have prices pushing through the 1.4358 threshold. Moving forward intraday charts continue to look mixed though a strong start in European equity indices have us looking to further ideas of a reversal in the daily sell-off among Euro, Cable, and Aussy. For now the next key test for the markets will be how it weather the Flash Eurozone CPI figures with consensus forecasts at 0.7% annualized though risks point for a strong read which could be a problem when it comes time for the ECB to cut rate again this Thursday.

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March 31st, 2009 @ 12:00 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 31th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3113 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.3197. On 4 chart we have a Hammer candlestick formation around 50% Fibo retracement area at 1.3100 suggesting a strong support and potential upside rebound. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3250. Break above that resistance could trigger further bullish momentum back towards 1.3435 area. Initial support at 1.3100 area. Break below that support area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2950. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

eurusd4hchart10

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3112
  • S2= 1.3027
  • S3= 1.2941
  • R1= 1.3283
  • R2= 1.3369
  • R3= 1.3454

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD hit my short target at 1.4150, even lower, bottomed at 1.4110 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.4264. On 4h chart we can see that the bearish power failed to make a breakdown below the trendline support and then rebounded back to the upside. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A valid break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish scenario testing 1.4000 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4280 followed by 1.4360. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart17

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4151
  • S2= 1.4038
  • S3= 1.3966
  • R1= 1.4336
  • R2= 1.4408
  • R3= 1.4521

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY slipped to the downside hit low at 95.97 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 97.24. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We have a “flag” formation on 4h chart suggesting a potential bullish scenario. At the same time, CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure. Breakout to the upside of “flag” area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 98.80 area.

usdjpy4hchart7

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.04
  • S2= 94.84
  • S3= 93.71
  • R1= 98.37
  • R2= 99.50
  • R3= 100.70

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.1547 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.1484 made a Doji formation on daily chart indicating an indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1450. Initial resistance at 1.1550. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdchfdaily5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1433
  • S2= 1.1382
  • S3= 1.1325
  • R1= 1.1541
  • R2= 1.1598
  • R3= 1.1649

Have a great day!

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March 30th, 2009 @ 2:52 pm by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

The daily Head and Shoulders continuation pattern might still be intact due to the fact that price made a peak at 1.3735 which could be the right shoulder’s forming stages. Have a look at the chart below:

hs1

Below follows your probability study:

We can see that the most active cycle within this bearish Major trend is still bullish and price is approaching this significant current trend’s trend line support at 1.2870/1.2900

eurmajor_current

The direction of highest probability for the remainder of today’s US session is indicated with the green 60minute trend and we can clearly see that it is bearish:

60

The fact of the matter here is that we do not have a trading condition within this bearish probability but as soon as we see a bearish cross on the 1hr stochastic it will signal that market rhythm is trend south again – in the direction of highest probability – and that place is where we will start shorting again

In a nutshell, the primary trend on the EUR is still bearish and a bearish trading condition here could certainly be very fruitful

Enjoy!

Johan Kriek

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March 30th, 2009 @ 7:43 am by Mark De La Paz

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AUDJPY’s break of 67.20 continues with its sell-off the next price objective at 64.30 the 61.8 Fib for the March rally. Other Yen pairs are also selling off with EURJPY now looking for the 125.81 23.6 Fib from 7/23 as its next key support area previously the breakout point for the March rally. This as GBPJPY having returned under 141.72 should now be looking at 135.30 as its next key support the floor of the four week congestion from late February to March. For the moment it appears retail traders are being blamed for the follow up to the technical breakout with people arguing end of the fiscal year close for Japan providing real impetus though we do point out that real money trades were done Friday with today’s settlement date already for April. Still as of now we have multiple reasons calling for dollar and yen strength while they don’t really sound like logical choices for risk aversion we ask, for the moment what other choice is there besides the Swissy as we have equity markets in Asia ending poorly and now European equities starting weak.  

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March 30th, 2009 @ 1:17 am by Mark De La Paz

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We started a busy week with gaps for a stronger dollar that’s been quickly covered while the Japanese Yen is weighed by poor numbers with Preliminary Industrial Production figures for February turning out at -9.4% while previous numbers were revised lower in further signs of persistent weakness for the economy. After the big sell-off on Yen pairs Friday we have triggered fresh signals to short on the daily scale with downside breakouts most noticeable in EURJPY and GBPJPY while AUDJPY looks vulnerable for its own sell-off should we clear the 67.20 region. Having said that though intraday charts are looking for a pullback and viewing Friday’s action as a turnaround of the uptrend may be folly, we see it more as a technical pullback. Note that soon we will be starting a new fiscal year for Japan suggesting outflows as Japanese search for better yields. Meanwhile for the rest of the week two issues will be in peoples mind’s the G20 meeting in London on Thursday where hopes are pinned for an unlikely more decisive coordinated action by governments among the 20 biggest economies. While Friday will be seeing a fresh US employment situation report with expectations showing little hopes for any improvement.

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March 29th, 2009 @ 11:41 pm by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 30th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Finally, the EURUSD made a breakdown to the downside from the ranging area of 1.3735 – 1.3435. After break below 1.3435, the pair made a significant downside movement, bottomed at 1.3256 and closed at 1.3285 on Friday. The bias is bearish is nearest term targeting 1.3090 and 1.2990 area. However we seem to have a strong support at 1.3250 area. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish momentum. CCI in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 1.3285 – 1.3315 resistance area.

eurusd4hchart9

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3164
  • S2= 1.3043
  • S3= 1.2830
  • R1= 1.3498
  • R2= 1.3711
  • R3= 1.3832

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had another bearish momentum on Friday.  The pair bottomed at 1.4266 and closed at 1.4316. On 4h chart we can see that the support trendline has been violated to the downside suggesting a potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4150 area. However CCI is in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 1.4330/50 resistance area.

gbpusd4hchart16

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4224
  • S2= 1.4132
  • S3= 1.3998
  • R1= 1.4450
  • R2= 1.4584
  • R3= 1.4676

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to continue it’s bullish momentum on Friday. The pair was traded lower, bottomed at 97.11 and closed at 97.83. On hourly chart we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Expect a potential ranging market between 98.80 – 96.80 area. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

usdjpyhourly10

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.01
  • S2= 96.20
  • S3= 95.29
  • R1= 98.73
  • R2= 99.64
  • R3= 100.45

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made a significant bullish momentum on Friday. After break above 1.1360, the pair topped at 1.1478 and closed at 1.1439. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1550 and 1.1650 area. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 1.1390 support area.

usdchf4hchart9

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1281
  • S2= 1.1123
  • S3= 1.1025
  • R1= 1.1537
  • R2= 1.1635
  • R3= 1.1793

Have a great day!

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March 28th, 2009 @ 9:01 pm by Todd Granthem

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Hello everyone! Hope you had a great trading week and that you’ll have an even better weekend.  I love the weekend, especially when I can attend one of my children’s soccer games. 

Currently, I’m sitting watching my daughter play a soccer game and just a moment ago she scored a goal.  She is actually a pretty good soccer player.  In addition, it’s also very beautiful here – take a look at the pictures I just took below.

image_121               image_122

 

Anyways, enough about soccer for now.  Although, there is a lot of similarities between sports and trading.  I have been coaching my children in basketball, soccer and softball for the last 10 years, which is about the amount of time I’ve been coaching traders.  During this time I have come to realize that coaching children in sports is a lot like coaching traders. 

One similarity is that the more experienced they are, the harder they are to coach.  Another similarity is that you can show them what to do, but you can’t make them do it the way you showed them.  This is true for both sports and trading.  One tip:  If your not having the success you desire, find someone that can help coach you, then do what they say.  OK, enough of sports talk.  Let’s take a look at what happened in the market this week.

WEEKLY CHART REVIEW

EUR/USD – Daily and 4hr Charts

eurusd4eurusd6

Let’s start by looking at the EUR/USD.  Notice the Daily chart above, it has been trending down for some time,  then last week it was able to break strongly up above the moving average.  This moving average happens to be the 62 period ema.  One thing that may happen on a breakout like this is that the price will try and retest the breakout area.  In this case the moving average.  A bounce up and off the moving average this week may be what is needed to see this pair begin to move back up in the direction of the initial breakout. 

Now, take a look at the 4hr. chart.  This chart has move back to the moving average and is trying to decide if it will continue to move up or to move back down again.  You may say “no kidding”, but the fact is we don’t exactly know what is going to happen with these pairs, so we need to trade them the direction they are moving.  I like taking trades using a moving average like this because it often times shows me areas where the pair will begin to have a more substantial move.  One thing we need to be concerned about this upcoming week is what will happen as the ECB makes its decision on interest rates.  Keep an eye on how this will impact this pair.

USD/JPY -1hr and 4hr Charts

usdjpy6  usdjpy7

The USD/JPY has been a bit range bound on the longer term charts.  Also, there has been some pretty good resistance on the 4hr chart.  Currently, the price is above the moving average on the 4hr chart which seems to be acting as some support. 

On the 1hr. chart we are also seeing the MA acting as support.  This next week we should be looking for a movement away from the MA in either a bullish or bearish direction.  One report to pay attention to will be the Tankan which is a leading indicator of economic health for large Japanese manufactuers.  Keep an eye out for a move and we may see it be fairly significant on this pair.

USD/CAD – Daily and 4hr Charts

usdcad4  usdcad5

Finally, take a look at the daily chart of the USD/CAD.  Notice the price moved below the MA on the daily chart.  This indicates some bearish momentum.  This along with the 4hr chart which is hitting a resistance level at the moving average would suggest that the pair would want to continue it’s downward movement.  Look for a bounce down to enter a short position this upcoming week. 

Alright, that was a brief overview of what I see happening to several of the currency pairs.  Take it or leave it.  Regardless of what happens, make sure you use appropriate risk and money managment in all your trades so you can continue to trade for the long run. 

 

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