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2009 February

February 28th, 2009 @ 12:34 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Sat, 28th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

I started my commentary on GBPUSD this week on Monday by saying that the pair will probably stay trapped in ranging area between 1.4637 – 1.4073 if we do not have a significant market catalyst. The fact is we hadn’t, and the pair still trapped in that ranging area. Although the main outlook remains bearish as the Greenback seems to continue benefits from risk aversion, we know that the market do not want to go any lower than 1.4050 area so far. The best strategy remains to short on rallies, but 1.4050 – 1.4100 area seem to be a potential buy zone as it has prove itself as a strong support this month and whenever price approaching that area, further bearish scenarios were rejected. However, once the price breakdown 1.4050, the Sterling would potentially suffer further losses and heading towards 1.3500 area once again. Well, let’s see how it’s gonna be next week.

I hope you all have  a wonderful weekend :)

gbpusdsummary

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February 27th, 2009 @ 12:39 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 27th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD didn’t make a significant movement yesterday. On hourly chart we have symmetrical triangle indicating a consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.2650. Break below that level could trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.2500 area. Initial resistance at 1.2807 (yesterday’s high). CCI about to cross the -100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

eurusdhourly10

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.2680
S2= 1.2618
S3= 1.2555
R1= 1.2805
R2= 1.2868
R3= 1.2930

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish movement yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4382 and closed at 1.4314. On 4h chart we can see that the major trend remains bearish but I think the bias unclear in nearest and medium term, so it’s better to keep stay out from the market. Immediate support is seen at 1.4250 followed by 1.4130. Initial resistance at 1.4382 (yesterday’s high). CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

gbpusd4hchart15

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4189
  • S2= 1.4064
  • S3= 1.3968
  • R1= 1.4410
  • R2= 1.4506
  • R3= 1.4631

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 98.25, topped at 98.69 and closed at 98.50. The bias remains bullish targeting 100.00 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 97.80 support area.

usdjpy4hchart13

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.64
  • S2= 96.78
  • S3= 96.26
  • R1= 99.02
  • R2= 99.54
  • R3= 100.4

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a moderate bearish movement yesterday. On hourly chart we have a symmetrical triangle indicating a consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1600. Initial resistance at 1.1740. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

usdchfhourly7

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1580
  • S2= 1.1520
  • S3= 1.1447
  • R1= 1.1713
  • R2= 1.1786
  • R3= 1.1846

Have a great day!

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February 26th, 2009 @ 9:46 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com

Key notes:

– Massive Head and Shoulders pattern on GBP suggest potential breakout of at least 1000 pips to the downside

Probability Studies

eur9

No trade zone, Bearish Probability. Market rhythm is consolidating at this stage and a breakout to the downside will present me with a beautiful bearish trading condition. 1.2660 should prove significant support but I do not think it will last long. If 1.2850 resistance is taken out we will have a bullish trading condition

gbp10

No trade zone, Bearish Probability. Although the probability is bearish I see a no trade zone. Price has now bounced on the massive head and shoulders pattern suggesting a breakout to about 1.32figure. The neckline support resides at 1.4160. A bearish cross on the 1 hour stochastic will give me a bearish trading condition all the way to the neckline and then, of course, I will wait for the neckline to be violated

Join me in the Live Trading Room here at FXInstructor.com to follow today’s moves

Enjoy!

Johan Kriek

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February 26th, 2009 @ 1:26 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 26th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was traded lower yesterday. On 4h chart the triangle has been breakdown to the downside suggesting a potential bearish scenario. However, we have not seen a clear trending market since Monday. Although technically it should be bearish for the pair, we also know that the market seems hesitate to let EURUSD stay below 1.2650- 1.2700 area this week.  The bias is bearish in nearest term but only a consistent movement below 1.2650 area could trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.2470 – 1.2500 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.2770 and 1.2825 resistance area.

eurusd4hchart7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2643
  • S2= 1.2563
  • S3= 1.2437
  • R1= 1.2849
  • R2= 1.2975
  • R3= 1.3055

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.4173 and closed at 1.4202. The triangle formation on 4h chart has been breakdown to the downside suggesting a potential bearish scenario. However CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pullback. We know that although technically it should be bearish for GBPUSD, the market always avoid any movement below 1.4050 – 1.4100 area this month. That fact give us a bad risk-reward situation. Unless you are a scalper, it’s better to stay away right now.

gbpusd4hchart14

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4049
  • S2= 1.3896
  • S3= 1.3619
  • R1= 1.4479
  • R2= 1.4756
  • R3= 1.4909

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 97.52, topped at 97.77 and closed at 97.38. The bias remains bullish targeting 98.25 before heading for 100.00 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 96.90 support area.

usdjpy4hchart12

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.55
  • S2= 95.73
  • S3= 95.12
  • R1= 97.98
  • R2= 98.59
  • R3= 99.41

USDCHF Outlook
The Greenback was traded stronger against Swiss Franc yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1741 and closed at 1.1696. On 4h chart we can see that the pair has been trendless since the middle of January, moving inside 1.1880 – 1.1313 area. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term so keep stay away from the market. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1741 (yesterday’s high). Initial support at 1.1635. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdchf4hchart9

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1583
  • S2= 1.1470
  • S3= 1.1391
  • R1= 1.1775
  • R2= 1.1854
  • R3= 1.1967

Have a great day!

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February 25th, 2009 @ 10:36 pm by Johan Kriek

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Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for February 25, 2009, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeRTdHuUEJU[/youtube]

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/25-february-probability-studies-germany-gdp-uk-gdp-watched/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

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February 25th, 2009 @ 6:53 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com

Key notes:

– UK economy expected to shrink at a pace of 1.9% – Resulting move could be far reaching, be warned

– Equities rallied yesterday and risk appetite was rife as the bank rescue plan took center stage – A clear and concise plan would install more confidence in the markets and spark more risk appetite. on the other hand, equity index futures are negative, suggesting no trend changes at this stage. Go figure

Probability Studies

eur8

Bearish trading condition. As long as the bearish 60minute trend (green lines) remains intact the bearish probability will prevail. A violation of 1.2855 resistance would cause a sudden change in probability and we would then have a no trade zone first. Keep an eye on Germany’s GDP later and please join me in the Live trading Room to follow the Eur’s moves today

gbp9

No trade zone, bearish probability. The bearish probability is justified due to the fact that we still have lower peaks, the current trend is bearish and we have a Head and Shoulders pattern on the bigger time frames. I am waiting for support at 1.4500 to be violated to the downside before attempting any trades. Watch the UK GDP figure as well.

Enjoy your trading day today..

Johan Kriek

www.fxinstructor.com

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February 25th, 2009 @ 1:36 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 25th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.2875 and closed at 1.2844. On 4h chart we have a symmetrical triangle formation indicating consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A break from the triangle formation would give us clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2880. Break above that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.3030 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.2790 and 1.2750 support area.

eurusd4hchart6

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2712
  • S2= 1.2580
  • S3= 1.2499
  • R1= 1.2925
  • R2= 1.3006
  • R3= 1.3138

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We still have bearish channel on hourly chart and price seem to test the channel line resistance now. A breakout to the upside would trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.4637 area.  Immediate support at 1.4465 followed by 1.4350. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

gbpusdhourly4

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4375
  • S2= 1.4274
  • S3= 1.4174
  • R1= 1.4576
  • R2= 1.4676
  • R3= 1.4777

USDJPY Outlook
As I had expected, the USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 95.50, even further, topped at 96.92 and closed at 96.62. The bias remains bullish targeting 97.52 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a minor downside pullback testing 95.90 support area.

usdjpy4hchart11

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 94.94
  • S2= 93.26
  • S3= 92.27
  • R1= 97.61
  • R2= 98.60
  • R3= 100.28

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF was traded lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1533 and closed at 1.1600. On 4h chart we have a moderate bullish channel inside 1.1880 – 1.1313 area. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. I think it’s better to stay away now. Immediate support is seen at 1.1533 (yesterday’s low) followed by 1.1460. Initial resistance at 1.1720. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

usdchf4hchart8

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1518
  • S2= 1.1436
  • S3= 1.1340
  • R1= 1.1696
  • R2= 1.1792
  • R3= 1.1874

Have a great day!

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February 24th, 2009 @ 2:44 pm by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

– The question-and-answer session after Bernanke’s testimony to Congress later should spark some volatility in the markets

Probability Studies:

eur7

Bearish trading condition. As long as price remains below the bearish 60minute trend resistance line the bearish probability will remain intact. The bearish cross on  the 1 hour stochastic signals a nice bearish trading condition. 1.2640 should prove significant support but of course this is still far away. We have resistance at 1.2770. If the latter is taken out then the bearish probability will be no more

gbp8

Bearish trading condition. As long as price remains below the bearish 60minute trend resistance line the bearish probability will remain intact. The bearish cross on  the 1 hour stochastic signals a nice bearish trading condition. 1.4320 should prove significant support but of course this is still far away. We have resistance at 1.4550. If the latter is taken out then the bearish probability will be no more

Enjoy the rest of your session

Johan kriek

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