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2009 January

January 30th, 2009 @ 6:21 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

– George Soros warns the EUR could fail in spectacular fashion unless a bad bank is created

– EUR CPI will indicate inflation which will give us an idea of what the ECB will do with interest rates – remember that Trichet is still dovish..

– US GBP expected to be the lowest in 26-years and could spark another equity market selloff. Be warned

Probability Studies:

eur7

Before I start with the Probability analysis on the EUR I would like to point out that we have a serious bearish price pattern on the daily charts. This is known as a Head and Shoulders pattern and signals a continuation of the preceding bearish trend. The pattern break would be confirmed once the neckline is violated. The level to look for is 1.2680

Now, the EUR’s probability study

eur11

No trade zone, bearish probability. As long as the 60minute trend remains bearish the bearish bias will remain intact. The reason we don’t have a trading condition is the bullish 1 hour stochastic. Market rhythm is consolidating so I’d wait for a bearish 1hr cross first. Don’t forget about EU CPI later… it can move the market

gbp11

No trade zone, bearish probability. We have significant resistance at 1.4330, if price stays within the range of the bearish current trend (below 1.4330) the bearish bias will remain intact. A lower peak indicated by the 1hr stochastic will give us a nice bearish trading condition. Come and see how this one develops in the Live Trading Room

Enjoy!

Johan Kriek

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January 30th, 2009 @ 1:25 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 30th of January, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
As I had expected, the EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my short target at 1.2980 even further bottomed at 1.2932. We have a valid bearish channel on hourly chart. The bias remains bearish targeting 1.2750 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on hourly chart so watch out for a potential minor upside pressure testing 1.3015 resistance area. CCI just cross -100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential bearish scenario.

eurusdhourly9

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2854
  • S2= 1.2770
  • S3= 1.2608
  • R1= 1.3100
  • R2= 1.3262
  • R3= 1.3346

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.4072 (12 pips higher from my short target at 1.4060) before whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4409 and closed at 1.4285. On hourly chart we can see that after violation to the former bullish channel, the price attempted to move higher, but the trend line resistance still hold. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Break below 1.4200 area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4000 key level . CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

gbpusdhourly9

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4101
  • S2= 1.3918
  • S3= 1.3764
  • R1= 1.4438
  • R2= 1.4592
  • R3= 1.4775

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to continue it’s bullish scenario yesterday. The pair bottomed at 89.46 and closed at 90.03. We have a new bearish channel on hourly chart. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 88.90 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 90.05. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdjpyhourly11

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 89.44
  • S2= 88.86
  • S3= 88.26
  • R1= 90.62
  • R2= 91.22
  • R3= 91.80

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF didn’t make a significant move yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.1406 but closed higher at 1.1543. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We still have a bullish channel on hourly chart, but the trend line resistance still hold. A breakout from the trend line resistance could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.1650. CCI about to cross the 100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdchfhourly4

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1439
  • S2= 1.1336
  • S3= 1.1266
  • R1= 1.1612
  • R2= 1.1682
  • R3= 1.1785

Have a great weekend!

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January 29th, 2009 @ 6:58 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

– Fed keeps interest rates at 0.25% and mentions in the statement more risk to the downside before recovery

– Obama’s $825billion stimulus package is passed

– UK House prices could have an impact later in the Euro session

– Eurozone unemployment data and Consumer Confidence could spark a serious move in the EUR

Probability Studies:

eur6

No trade zone, bearish probability. Price is converging with the newly identified current trend support. I’d wait for this support level at 1.3085 to be violated first to confirm that the bearish probability is indeed sustainable. Next support will be 1.2980. If the current trend is violated and the 1 hour stochastic turns bearish we will have a nice bearish trading condition – the only battle we have to fight then is the latter mentioned support. Join me in the Live Trading Room to see how this one pans out :)

gbp6

No trade zone, bearish probability. The bullish 60minute trend has been violated and although I cannot see a lower significant peak to identify a new bearish 60minute trend, just the fact that the previous bullish one has been violated we now have a fully fledged bearish probability on our hands. As soon as the 1 hour stochastic gives me a bearish cross I will have a nice shorting condition. Keep in mind that if the current trend is violated to the upside the probability will be bullish again. The level to watch is 1.4275

Have a good one!

Johan Kriek

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January 29th, 2009 @ 1:20 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 29th of January, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bullish correction scenario yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3326 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.3152. On hourly chart we have a double top formation and the bullish channel has been violated to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.2980. CCI in oversold area and heading up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.3188 and 1.3240 resistance area.

eurusdhourly8

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3060
  • S2= 1.2969
  • S3= 1.2836
  • R1= 1.3284
  • R2= 1.3417
  • R3= 1.3508

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4374 but closed lower at 1.4245. Technically on 4h chart the price failed to break the trend line resistance and go lower. At the same time, CCI just cross the 100 line down suggesting a potential bearish scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4060. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4280 area.

gbpusd4hchart4

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4121
  • S2= 1.3997
  • S3= 1.3871
  • R1= 1.4371
  • R2= 1.4497
  • R3= 1.4621

USDJPY Outlook
After breakout from rectangle area (of 90.20 – 88.20), the USDJPY had a bullish momentum. The pair topped at 90.74 and closed at 90.40. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 91.30 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down so watch out for a potential minor downside pressure testing 90.00-20 area.

usdjpy4hchart6

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 89.26
  • S2= 88.13
  • S3= 87.39
  • R1= 91.13
  • R2= 91.87
  • R3= 93.00

USDCHF Outlook
After breakout the rectangle formation (of 1.1430 – 1.1330) on hourly chart, yesterday the USDCHF had a bullish momentum. The pair topped at 1.1564 and closed at 1.1526. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1650. CCI in overbought area and heading down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential minor downside pressure testing 1.1474 – 1.1510 area.

usdchfhourly3

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1382
  • S2= 1.1238
  • S3= 1.1147
  • R1= 1.1617
  • R2= 1.1708
  • R3= 1.1852

Have a great day!

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January 28th, 2009 @ 10:43 pm by Johan Kriek

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Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for January 28, 2009, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeZ7SNwRZGA[/youtube]

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

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January 28th, 2009 @ 2:07 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 28th of January, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD didn’t make a significant movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3328 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.3183. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On hourly chart we can see that the pair is moving in rectangle area of 1.3328 – 1.3136 indicating that the pair is in consolidation phase after some bullish correction momentum. A break from the rectangle formation should give us a clearer direction. A breakout from the rectangle could be a sign of the bullish correction continuation towards 1.3500 area. Be patient at this phase. Former trend line resistance is now have to do a new task as a support. Initial support is seen at 1.3050 – 1.3100 area. CCI in neutral area on both hourly and daily chart.

eurusdhourly7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3103
  • S2= 1.3023
  • S3= 1.2911
  • R1= 1.3295
  • R2= 1.3407
  • R3= 1.3487

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4240 but closed lower at 1.4156. We still have bullish channel on hourly chart, but at the same time a rectangle formation, indicating a consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish correction scenario still intact.  A break from the rectangle formation should give us a clearer direction. CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

gbpusdhourly8

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3976
  • S2= 1.3796
  • S3= 1.3664
  • R1= 1.4288
  • R2= 1.4420
  • R3= 1.4600

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair made an indecisive movement by opened and closed at almost the same price (89.06 and 89.12). On 4h chart we can see that the pair is trapped in rectangle formation between 90.20 – 88.20 area since January 21. Former trend line resistance is now become an important support. The bias is neutral in nearest/medium term. Immediate support is seen at 88.50. Initial resistance at 89.50.

usdjpy4hchart5

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 88.63
  • S2= 88.14
  • S3= 87.43
  • R1= 89.83
  • R2= 90.54
  • R3= 91.03

USDCHF Outlook
After corrected lower on Monday, yesterday the USDCHF made a moderate bullish movement. On hourly chart we can see that after had a bearish correction momentum, the pair is now trapped in rectangle formation (of 1.1430 – 1.1330) indicating a consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A break from the rectangle formation should give us a clearer direction. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdchfhourly2

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1340
  • S2= 1.1267
  • S3= 1.1221
  • R1= 1.1459
  • R2= 1.1505
  • R3= 1.1578

Have a great day!

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January 27th, 2009 @ 1:26 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 27th of January, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday. 2 Hammer candlestick formation I showed yesterday now followed by a bullish candle. A break above trend line resistance and 23 Fib retracement (of 1.4719 – 1.2764) should confirm the bullish reversal scenario targeting 1.3500 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but major bearish scenario remains valid. Immediate support is seen at 1.3150 followed by 1.3050. Initial resistance at 1.3250 area. A consistent move above that level could trigger further bullish momentum. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing support areas.

eurusddaily3

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2966
  • S2= 1.2726
  • S3= 1.2592
  • R1= 1.3340
  • R2= 1.3474
  • R3= 1.3714

GBPUSD Outlook
The Hammer candlestick formation gave us a valid warning of a potential bullish reversal yesterday. GBPUSD was corrected higher, topped at 1.4060 and closed at 1.4008. The bias is bullish in nearest term with 1.4210 as bullish correction target, but major bearish scenario remains valid. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.3940 and 1.3800 support areas.

gbpusddaily3

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3683
  • S2= 1.3358
  • S3= 1.3170
  • R1= 1.4196
  • R2= 1.4384
  • R3= 1.4709

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made a moderate bullish correction yesterday. The pair topped at 89.68 and closed at 89.07. Beside CCI divergence seen on 4h chart, the violated bearish channel and CCI just cross the 100 line up should support the bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 90.90. CCI just cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential bullish view.

usdjpy4hchart4

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 88.32
  • S2= 87.57
  • S3= 86.89
  • R1= 89.75
  • R2= 90.43
  • R3= 91.18

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF failed to continued it’s bullish scenario yesterday. The bearish channel on 4h chart has been violated to the downside. We might have another bearish correction today testing 1.1200 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term but major bullish scenario can not be said over. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1450 followed by 1.1500. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing resistance areas.

usdchf4hchart12

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1237
  • S2= 1.1125
  • S3= 1.0923
  • R1= 1.1551
  • R2= 1.1753
  • R3= 1.1865

Have a great day!

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January 26th, 2009 @ 6:27 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

– President Obama’s $825 billion stimulus package still seeks Congressional approval

– US Q4 GDP this week expected to be lowest in 26-years, equities might sell off

– GBP at 23-year low

– FOMC rate decision eagerly awaited

Probability Studies:

EUR/USD

eur5

No trade zone, Bearish probability. The 60minute trend has been adjusted to honor the lower peak we saw Friday just before t he close. We also saw how price gapped this morning at the Asisan session and subsequently the gap has no been closed. Market rhythm is consolidating a bit here just above the 1.29figure level and a break here will force the 1 hour stochastic to the downside and of course give me a nice bearish trading condition. Expect significant support at 1.2700 (Major Trend support) Anything above 1.3000 will be bullish, at least till 1.3100

GBP/USD

gbp5

Bearish Trading Condition. The 1 hour stochastic is bearish and therefore the trading condition. If you want to play it conservative today, you can wait for price to move below 1.35figure first. In a nutshell, the overall Primary trend of the Cable remains bearish and a bearish trading condition here just adds so much weight to the bears. On the other hand, anything above 1.3750 will give us a bullish probability but let’s cross that bridge when we get there.

Hope you have an awesome pip-hunting experience today :)

Johan Kriek

jkriek@fxinstructor.com

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