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2008 December

December 29th, 2008 @ 2:50 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 29th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD bearish channel on 4h chart has been violated to the upside. On another point of  view, the pair also broke the rectangle pattern (ranging market 1.3830 1.4125) to the upside. The bias is on the upside in nearest term. A consistent movement above 1.4125 area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.4300 resistance level. Immediate support is seen at 1.4100 followed by 1.4050. CCI in overbought area on 4h chart but movement below 100 line is rejected suggesting a potential bullish momentum continuation.

eurusd4hchart7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4025
  • S2= 1.3990
  • S3= 1.3944
  • R1= 1.4106
  • R2= 1.4152
  • R3= 1.4187

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4650 and closed at 1.4652. We still have bearish price channel on hourly chart. The bias remains bearish. Only a violation of the bearish channel would be a violation to the current bearish scenario. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4730. A break above that level would change the bias into neutral area. CCI in neutral area on hourly chart.

gbpusdhourly6

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4603
  • S2= 1.4553
  • S3= 1.4456
  • R1= 1.4750
  • R2= 1.4847
  • R3= 1.4897

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY didn’t make a significant movement on Friday. On hourly chart we can see that after violated the bullish channel, the pair is moving in a rectangle pattern, which is a consolidation/continuation of the current bullish short term trend. The bias remains to the upside. I am expecting a breakout to the upside of the rectangle formation and targeting 91.60 resistance area. Immediate support is seen at 90.20.

usdjpyhourly13

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 90.43
  • S2= 90.21
  • S3= 90.06
  • R1= 90.80
  • R2= 90.95
  • R3= 91.17

USDCHF Outlook

After breakout to the downside from the descending tringle formation on 4h chart, the USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum. The bias remains bearish testing 1.0410 area again. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0687. CCI in oversold area both in hourly and 4h chart suggesting a potential minor upside pressures.

usdchf4hchart4

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0641
  • S2= 1.0606
  • S3= 1.0543
  • R1= 1.0739
  • R2= 1.0802
  • R3= 1.0837

Have a great day!

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December 24th, 2008 @ 1:58 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 24th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made another indecisive market yesterday, formed another Doji candlestick formation on daily chart, and the pair still trapped in rectangle formation on hourly chart. We are still in consolidation and the bias remains bearish. On daily chart we can see that the pair made 4 lower highs for the last 4 days and CCI just cross 100 line down suggesting a potential bearish view. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4021 (yesterday’s high) followed by 1.4124. Initial support at 1.3903. A break below that support level also considered as break of the rectangle formation and could trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.3750 and 1.3575 area.

eurusddaily7

eurusdhourly8

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3886
  • S2= 1.3846
  • S3= 1.3779
  • R1= 1.3993
  • R2= 1.4060
  • R3= 1.4100

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD continued it’s soft bearish scenario yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.4671 and closed at 1.4727. The bias remains bearish. Beside rectangle formation on daily chart, we have a descending triangle formation on hourly chart supporting the bearish view. A break to the downside from the triangle could trigger further bearish movement towards 1.45001.4550 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4810 followed by 1.4870. Initial support at 1.4671 (yesterday’s low).

gbpusdhourly5

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4633
  • S2= 1.4539
  • S3= 1.4407
  • R1= 1.4859
  • R2= 1.4991
  • R3= 1.5085

USDJPY Outlook
As I had expected, the USDJPY was traded higher yesterday. After break the rectangle formation to the upside, the pair topped at 90.98 and closed at 90.89. The bias remains to the upside. However CCI just cross 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressures testing 90.50 and 89.90 support area. Immediate resistance is seen at 91.30 followed by 91.90.

usdjpyhourly12

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 90.19
  • S2= 89.49
  • S3= 89.10
  • R1= 91.28
  • R2= 91.67
  • R3= 92.37

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s soft bearish momentum yesterday. On 4h chart we have a descending triangle formation suggesting a bearish view in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.0815. A break below that level could trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 1.0945 (yesterday’s high). CCI in neutral area and heading down both on hourly and 4h chart suggesting a potential bearish pressures.

usdchf4hchart3

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0827
  • S2= 1.0770
  • S3= 1.0711
  • R1= 1.0943
  • R2= 1.1002
  • R3= 1.1059

Merry Christmas and have a great holiday!

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December 23rd, 2008 @ 1:55 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 23th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4124 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.3940, formed a Doji candlestick formation on daily chart. On hourly chart we can see that the pair moved in rectangle formation which is a consolidation/continuation pattern. The bias is bearish. A break below 1.3903 level could also be considered as a break of the rectangle formation, could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.3750 and 1.3575 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4050 followed by 1.4124 (yesterday’s high). CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

eurusdhourly7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3854
  • S2= 1.3768
  • S3= 1.3633
  • R1= 1.4075
  • R2= 1.4210
  • R3= 1.4296

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish scenario yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.4686 and closed at 1.4820. The bias remains bearish and still targeting 1.4550 area. On daily chart we can see that the pair is moving in rectangle formation, which is a consolidation/continuation of the current bearish outlook. A break below 1.4685 could also be considered as a break of the rectangle formation could trigger further bearish momentum. CCI just cross -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential minor upside pressures testing 1.4950 resistance area.

gbpusddaily5

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4674
  • S2= 1.4528
  • S3= 1.4370
  • R1= 1.4978
  • R2= 1.5136
  • R3= 1.5282

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY was traded higher yesterday. The pair topped at 90.49 and closed at 90.23. We have a bullish price channel on hourly chart and a rectangle formation. CCI just cross -100 line up on daily chart. These facts should support the bullish scenario in nearest term. CCI in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pullback testing 89.50 support level. Initial resistance at 90.49 (yesterday’s high). A break above that level could trigger further bullish momentum towards 91.90 area.

usdjpyhourly11

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 89.49
  • S2= 88.75
  • S3= 88.25
  • R1= 90.73
  • R2= 91.23
  • R3= 91.97

USDCHF Outlook
Further bullish scenario was rejected yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.0880 and closed at 1.0923. The bullish channel on hourly chart is violated to the downside and the pair is making a rectangle formation, traded between 1.1026 and 1.0880 ranging area. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but still bullish in longer term. A break from the rectangle formation should give us a clearer direction. CCI in neutral area both on hourly and 4h chart.

usdchfhourly3

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0854
  • S2= 1.0785
  • S3= 1.0690
  • R1= 1.1018
  • R2= 1.1113
  • R3= 1.1182

Have a great day!

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December 22nd, 2008 @ 2:25 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 22th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After break the rectangle formation to the downside on hourly chart, the EURUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.3826 and closed at 1.3907. We had a bearish price channel on hourly chart. However early today in Asian session the bearish channel has been violated to the upside. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still intact with bearish outlook in medium term targeting 1.3750 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressures testing 1.4050 and 1.4182 resistance area.

eurusdhourly6

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3719
  • S2= 1.3531
  • S3= 1.3236
  • R1= 1.4202
  • R2= 1.4497
  • R3= 1.4685

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish scenario on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4810 but closed higher at 1.4927. The bias remains bearish in longer term targeting 1.4550. However CCI about to cross -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressures testing 1.5040 and 1.5190 resistance area. Immediate support is seen at 1.4750.

gbpusd4hchart13

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4762
  • S2= 1.4598
  • S3= 1.4386
  • R1= 1.5138
  • R2= 1.5350
  • R3= 1.5514

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On hourly chart we can see that the pair moves in ranging area between 90.00 and 88.40. I am expecting to another choppy market today. The bias bearish in nearest term but neutral in longer term. CCI in overbought area and heading down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

usdjpyhourly10

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 88.54
  • S2= 87.77
  • S3= 87.12
  • R1= 89.96
  • R2= 90.61
  • R3= 91.38

USDCHF Outlook
The Hammer candlestick formation on daily chart that I showed on Thursday gave us a valid bullish reversal warning. The pair topped at 1.1130 and closed at 1.1035. The bias remains bullish targeting 1.1331. Immediate support is seen at 1.0950 followed by 1.0850. CCI in neutral area both on hourly and 4h chart.

usdchfdaily6

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0806
  • S2= 1.0578
  • S3= 1.0416
  • R1= 1.1196
  • R2= 1.1358
  • R3= 1.1586

Have a great day!

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December 19th, 2008 @ 3:13 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 19th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the EURUSD hit my long target at 1.4609 even further, topped at 1.4719 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hit the bottom at 1.4186 (50% Fibonacci retracement 1.60381.2330) and closed at 1.4266. Finally the bullish price momentum paused and the pair might in consolidation phase. Although we are still in bullish scenario in longer term, we might see another downside pullback attempt in nearest term, but short trades position is not recommended at this phase. On hourly chart we have a rectangle formation which is a consolidation pattern (of the nearest term) and the pair move in a narrow area of 1.4320 and 1.4182. A breakout from the rectangle pattern should give us a clearer direction. CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressures, but in neutral area on 4h chart.

eurusddaily6

eurusdhourly4

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4061
  • S2= 1.3857
  • S3= 1.3528
  • R1= 1.4594
  • R2= 1.4923
  • R3= 1.5127

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD failed to continue it’s bullish momentum. The pair bottomed at 1.4896 and closed at 1.5029. On daily chart we have a rectangle formation suggesting that the pair is in consolidation phase in bearish scenario in longer term. However in nearest term the bias is neutral with upside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5235 followed by 1.5400. Initial support at 1.5000. CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressures.

gbpusddaily4

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4744
  • S2= 1.4460
  • S3= 1.4024
  • R1= 1.5464
  • R2= 1.5900
  • R3= 1.6184

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to maintain it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 90.03 and closed at 89.56. We have a new bullish price channel on hourly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still bearish in longer term. Immediate support is seen at 88.90 followed by 88.60. A break below 88.60 could bring the pair into further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 90.50. CCI just cross 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

usdjpyhourly9

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 87.87
  • S2= 86.18
  • S3= 85.10
  • R1= 90.64
  • R2= 91.72
  • R3= 93.41

USDCHF Outlook
After break the double bottom formation to the downside, yesterday the USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum. The pair bottomed at 1.0410 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 1.0866 and closed at 1.0816. On daily chart we have Hammer candlestick formation suggesting that we might have a bullish reversal in the near future. This fact is also supported by oversold CCI and heading up on daily time frame. Immediate support is seen at 1.0750 followed by 1.0590.

usdchfdaily5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0528
  • S2= 1.0241
  • S3= 1.0072
  • R1= 1.0984
  • R2= 1.1153
  • R3= 1.1440

Have a great day!

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December 18th, 2008 @ 2:53 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 18th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
As I had expected, yesterday the EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum. On my daily chart with the Fibonacci retracement projections, we can see how the current strong bullish momentum can easily break all resistance levels. The pair is now chasing 1.4609 as the next bullish target. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential minor downside pressures testing 1.4350 and 1.4280 support levels.

eurusddaily5

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4127
  • S2= 1.3853
  • S3= 1.3698
  • R1= 1.4556
  • R2= 1.4711
  • R3= 1.4985

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD further bullish momentum was rejected. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.5722 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5247 and closed higher at 1.5514. The bias should remains very bullish. On 4h chart, 1.5506 resistance seem to be an important level at this phase. A consistent movement above that level would trigger further bullish momentum. A cross of the CCI 100 line up on 4h chart should support the bullish view and could provide us with good long trade opportunities.

gbpusd4hchart9

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5266
  • S2= 1.5019
  • S3= 1.4791
  • R1= 1.5741
  • R2= 1.5969
  • R3= 1.6216

USDJPY Outlook
After break the double bottom formation on hourly chart, yesterday the USDJPY continued it’s bearish momentum. The pair bottomed at 87.13 and closed at 87.33. The bias remains very bearish targeting 86.15 area. CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential minor upside pressures testing 88.11 and 88.60 resistance levels.

usdjpyhourly8

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 86.57
  • S2= 85.81
  • S3= 84.49
  • R1= 88.65
  • R2= 89.97
  • R3= 90.73

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my bearish target at 1.0898 even further, bottomed at 1.0712. On daily chart, looks like we have a double bottom formation at 1.0690 level, the huge downside pressures we have seen lately could break the formation easily. Once the formation break to the downside, the pair will strongly gain further bearish momentum targeting 1.0016 area.  CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a minor upside pressures testing 1.0816 and 1.0898 resistance levels.

usdchfdaily4

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0550
  • S2= 1.0365
  • S3= 1.0019
  • R1= 1.1081
  • R2= 1.1427
  • R3= 1.1612

Have a great day!

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December 17th, 2008 @ 2:51 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 17th of December, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish scenario yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4147 and closed at 1.4048. The bias remains very bullish targeting 1.4182 (50% Fibonacci retracement 1.60381.2330). A break above that level would trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.4609 area. CCI about to cross 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential minor downside pullback testing 1.3957 and 1.3890 support levels.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3736
  • S2= 1.3424
  • S3= 1.3219
  • R1= 1.4253
  • R2= 1.4458
  • R3= 1.4770

GBPUSD Outlook
As I had expected, the GBPUSD also continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 1.5540 even further, topped at 1.5647. The bias remains very bullish targeting 1.5885. CCI about to cross 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential minor downside pullback testing 1.5540 and 1.5480 support levels.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5305
  • S2= 1.5033
  • S3= 1.4862
  • R1= 1.5748
  • R2= 1.5919
  • R3= 1.6191

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bearish scenario yesterday. The pair bottomed at 88.63 (double bottom with Monday’s low) and closed at 88.98. The double bottom formation might be a strong support but the pressures is still to the downside. CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside risks testing 89.42 and 90.00 resistance levels. A break below 88.60 area would trigger further bearish scenario towards 86.15 area.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 88.16
  • S2= 87.35
  • S3= 86.07
  • R1= 90.25
  • R2= 91.53
  • R3= 92.34

USDCHF Outlook
As I had expected, the USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my bearish target at 1.1425 even much further bottomed at 1.1142 and closed at 1.1192. The bias remains very bearish. The key level at this phase is 1.1155 area. A consistent movement below that level would trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.0898 area. CCI about to cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential minor upside pressures testing 1.1250 support area.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1027
  • S2= 1.0863
  • S3= 1.0584
  • R1= 1.1470
  • R2= 1.1749
  • R3= 1.1913

Have a great day!

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December 16th, 2008 @ 6:52 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events:

– 09:30GMT UK CPI

– 10:00GMT Eurozone Employment

– 13:30GMT US Building permits

– 13:30GMT US Housing starts

– 13:30GMT US CPI

– 19:15GMT Fed rate decision

Probability Studies:

We saw how the bucky came under severe pressure the past couple of days and major resistances on the EUR and GBP was violated. The Fed’s Interest Rate announcement later tonight could spark a major depreciation in the bucky. Keep an eye on the UK CPI as well as the US CPI today. The CPI is a significant inflation indicator and can have a serious impact on the FX markets even before the US rate announcement

See you in the LTR!

Johan Kriek

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