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2008 November

November 28th, 2008 @ 3:09 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 28th of November, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
We had a choppy market movements yesterday. The descending triangle formation seen on 4h chart suggesting that the pair is in consolidation phase with downside bias. A breakout from this triangle with significant increase of volume could give us a clearer direction. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressures. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2968 (yesterday’s high) followed by 1.3050. Initial support at 1.2850. A breakout to the downside from that support level could trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.2650 area.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2848
  • S2= 1.2800
  • S3= 1.2740
  • R1= 1.2956
  • R2= 1.3016
  • R3= 1.3064

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD didn’t make a significant movement yesterday. We still have a valid bullish channel on 4h chart. However there are some downside pressures early today in Asian session testing the support of the bullish channel. A violation to the downside could trigger further bearish momentum. Immediate support is seen at 1.5320 followed by 1.5200. Initial resistance at 1.5440 followed by 1.5525. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5300
  • S2= 1.5207
  • S3= 1.5101
  • R1= 1.5499
  • R2= 1.5605
  • R3= 1.5698

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement by open and closed at almost the same price (95.41 and 95.32). My model remains mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 94.50. Initial resistance 95.93. CCI about to cross -100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 94.97
  • S2= 94.62
  • S3= 94.25
  • R1= 95.69
  • R2= 96.06
  • R3= 96.41

USDCHF Outlook
Similar to other major pairs, the USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. We can see in hourly chart the pair is moving in ranging area between 1.2030 and 1.1950. A breakout from that ranging area could give us a clearer direction. CCI in neutral area and heading up towards 100 line suggesting a potential upside pressures.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1960
  • S2= 1.1915
  • S3= 1.1878
  • R1= 1.2042
  • R2= 1.2079
  • R3= 1.2124

Have a great weekend!

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November 27th, 2008 @ 9:17 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

– Chinese Central bank cut rates yesterday

– Stocks continue to rally

– India closes exchanges after terrorist attacks

– Not much expected from the markets today due to US Thanksgiving holiday

Key events:

– 09:00  GMT       Germany Unemployment change
– 09:00  GMT       Germany Unemployment rate
– 09:00  GMT       Eurozone M3 Money Supply
– 10:00  GMT       Eurozone Business climate
– 10:00  GMT       Eurozone Economic sentiment
– 10:00  GMT       Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Probability Studies:

Bullish probability but we still have a no trade zone within this probability. Watch the 60minute trend support at 1.2800. If the latter is taken out we will have a bearish probability all of a sudden.

If the no trade zone prevails then it will be for a reason as we might even see a Head and Shoulders pattern developing so be careful

Bearish probability. Once the 1 hour stochastic crosses bearish you will have a bearish trading condition. Expect resistance at 1.2020 as this resembles the bearish 60minute trend resistance line. Also, if this trendline is violated the bearish probability will be no more

I can see the 1 hour stochastic crossed bullish already but if this cross will be confirmed remains to be seen. Expect resistance at 1.5550 (bearish current trend resistance line – blue)

No trade zone. The current trend has taken on the form of a triangular pattern and to trade the cycles within this pattern are becoming increasingly risky. A breakout in any direction could be substantial..

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to our US counterparts

Johan Kriek

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November 27th, 2008 @ 2:55 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 27th of November, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After gain some bullish momentum since Friday, yesterday the EURUSD corrected lower. The pair bottomed at 1.2819 and closed at 1.2878. This fact force my model to mixed with neutral bias. Although this might be just a minor downside correction of the current short term bullish momentum targeting 1.3200 area, CCI already in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressures. Immediate support is seen at 1.2836 followed by 1.2750. Initial resistance at 1.2930. A break to the upside from that resistance level could trigger further bullish momentum back towards 1.3050 area.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2779
  • S2= 1.2680
  • S3= 1.2541
  • R1= 1.3017
  • R2= 1.3156
  • R3= 1.3255

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD was traded lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.5177 but closed higher at 1.5342. We still have a valid bullish channel on 4h chart. The bias is still on the upside. Immediate support is seen at 1.5320 followed by 1.5220. Initial resistance at 1.5440 followed by 1.5530. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5194
  • S2= 1.5046
  • S3= 1.4916
  • R1= 1.5472
  • R2= 1.5602
  • R3= 1.5750

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made indecisive movement by open and closed at almost the same price (95.33 and 95.40). My model remains mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 94.50. Initial resistance 95.93 (yesterday’s high). CCI in neutral area and heading down both on hourly chart and 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 94.71
  • S2= 94.03
  • S3= 93.42
  • R1= 96.00
  • R2= 96.61
  • R3= 97.29

USDCHF Outlook
After had some bullish momentum since Monday, Yesterday the USDCHF was traded higher. The pair topped at 1.2077 and closed at 1.2019. However early today in Asian session the pair was traded lower around 1.1995 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact force my model to mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.1935. Initial resistance at 1.2077 (yesterday’s high). CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1880
  • S2= 1.1741
  • S3= 1.1643
  • R1= 1.2117
  • R2= 1.2215
  • R3= 1.2354

Have a great day!

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November 26th, 2008 @ 1:45 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 26th of November, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.3080 and closed at 1.3056. This significant bullish momentum could trigger a change of trend direction. From a longer term perspective from weekly chart, the pair is forming a long bullish candlestick and CCI just cross -100 line up suggesting a potential bullish scenario at least for this week (and probably several weeks ahead).  Immediate support is seen at 1.2925. Initial resistance at 1.3200 followed by 1.3300.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2880
  • S2= 1.2704
  • S3= 1.2604
  • R1= 1.3156
  • R2= 1.3256
  • R3= 1.3432

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. After break key level 1.5264, the pair topped at 1.5534 and closed at 1.5456. We have 3 bullish candlestick with higher high and higher low for the past 3 days suggesting that the pair is in strong bullish momentum. The bias is on the upside, targeting 1.5686 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.5325 followed by 1.5259. CCI in oversold area and heading up on weekly chart suggesting a potential upside pressures.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5114
  • S2= 1.4772
  • S3= 1.4562
  • R1= 1.5666
  • R2= 1.5876
  • R3= 1.6218

USDJPY Outlook
After corrected to the upside in Friday and Monday, the USDJPY continued it’s bearish scenario yesterday. The pair bottomed at 94.94 and closed at 95.29. My model goes mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 95.50. Initial support at 94.50. CCI in neutral area and heading down in 4h chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 94.46
  • S2= 93.63
  • S3= 92.33
  • R1= 96.59
  • R2= 97.89
  • R3= 98.72

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1828 and closed at 1.1838. This fact could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.1700 area. However CCI already in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a minor upside pressures. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1920.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1757
  • S2= 1.1676
  • S3= 1.1524
  • R1= 1.1990
  • R2= 1.2142
  • R3= 1.2223

Have a great day!

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November 25th, 2008 @ 8:18 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

– Equities rebound on CitiGroup rescue

– Germany GDP -0.5%, signals recession and possible rate cuts from ECB

Key events:

– 09:45 GMT (UK) MPC Treasury Committee Hearings

– 13:30 GMT (US) U.S. GDP

– 15:00 GMT (US) Consumer confidence

– 15:00 GMT (US) House price index

Probability Studies:

Bullish trading condition. After the violation of the bearish current trend the direction of highest probability has changed to bullish and therefore the new bullish 60minute trend. As long as the 1 hour stochastic remains bullish the EUR will be situated in a bullish trading condition giving you ample opportunities to execute your own trading entry system within this direction

Exactly the opposite, bearish trading condition. Eventually the bullish current trend support has been violated and the new bearish 60minute trend has been identified using the highest significant turning points at 1.2296 and 1.2223 respectively. Remember that this new 60minute trend will eventually evolve to become the new bearish current trend according to the popular Probability Study technique

A confirmed bullish stochastic cross will provide a bullish trading condition and possibly ample trading opportunities to go with it :)

Expect resistance at 1.5248/50 (remember that this resistance can only cause a brief halt in price movement and not necessarily signal a fully fledged pullback)

On the JPY we have a current trend in the form of triangular pattern and at this point in time the 60minute trend reflects the bullish cycle within this pattern, therefore the bullish probability. The upper line resistance is at 98.00 and the lower line support is at 94.00

Happy trading and see you in the LTR!

Johan Kriek

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November 25th, 2008 @ 3:11 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 25th of November, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made another significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.2959 and closed at 1.2947. This fact should open the door for a further bullish scenario towards 1.3300 area. However early today in Asian session the pair was traded lower and we have a long bearish candle on 4h chart. CCI already in overbought area and heading down suggesting a potential downside pressures testing 1.2810 and 1.2715 support levels. Initial resistance at 1.3090.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2687
  • S2= 1.2427
  • S3= 1.2291
  • R1= 1.3083
  • R2= 1.3219
  • R3= 1.3479

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.5189 and closed at 1.5185. This fact should give the pair another bullish scenario. The key level at this phase is 1.5264. A break out to the upside from that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.5686. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressures testing 1.5060 support area.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4955
  • S2= 1.4725
  • S3= 1.4608
  • R1= 1.5302
  • R2= 1.5419
  • R3= 1.5649

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 97.43 and closed at 97.08. However the pair was traded lower early today in Asian session. My model is mixed with neutral bias in nearest term but with upside bias in longer term. Immediate support is seen at 96.50 followed by 95.95. Initial resistance at 97.43 (yesterday’s high) followed by 98.00. CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 95.53
  • S2= 93.99
  • S3= 93.04
  • R1= 98.02
  • R2= 98.97
  • R3= 100.51


USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1920 and closed at 1.1930. This fact should open the door for a further bearish scenario. A consistent movement below 1.1920 level could trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.1800 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressures testing 1.1990 and 1.2070 resistance area.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1825
  • S2= 1.1721
  • S3= 1.1522
  • R1= 1.2128
  • R2= 1.2327
  • R3= 1.2431

Have a great day!

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November 24th, 2008 @ 4:50 pm by Johan Kriek

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Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 24, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9ySxZ2VCqI[/youtube]

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/24-november-probability-studies/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

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November 24th, 2008 @ 6:27 am by Johan Kriek

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by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Notes:

– Dow plunges below 7500 last week, risk aversion still rife

– Talks over Citi Group bailout makes a equity market rebound possible

Today’s Events:

– EuroZone Industrial orders @ 09:00GMT

– Germany Ifo business climate @ 09:00GMT

– US Existing home sales @ 15:00GMT

Probability Studies:

We have a new triangular formation on the EUR which means if it is violated to the upside and price moves above 1.2700 the EUR will be situated in a definite bullish probability. A break of 1.2415 to the downside will confirm the bearish probability. If you are patient and wait for the break then your patience will most probably be rewarded :)

Bullish probability but still no trade zone. As long as the 60minute trend remains bullish the bullish probability will remain intact. A break of 1.2080 will plunge the CHF in a bearish probability. On the other hand a bullish 1 hour stochastic cross will present me with a bullish trading condition

Bearish trading condition. If market rhythm continues to trend South the 1 hour stoch will continue to open to the downside. On the other hand, consolidation from a market rhythm perspective might force a bullish stoch cross with a no trade zone to go with it..

The GBP is still situated in a bearish probability but if the 1.5000 resistance is taken out (bearish 60minute trend resistance line) then we will have a sudden bullish trading condition. Watch this space… price can bounce here. If not, then we’re bullish

I hope you have a great start to your week!

Johan Kriek

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