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2008 May

May 30th, 2008 @ 12:38 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 30th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday, EURUSD short term bearish momentum continued. The pair reached my short target at 1.5550, even further, bottomed at 1.5485 and closed at 1.5510. My model remains short, targeting 1.5410. CCI already in oversold area on 4h chart, so a minor upside pullback might happen today. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5550.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5442
  • S2= 1.5374
  • S3= 1.5264
  • R1= 1.5620
  • R2= 1.5730
  • R3= 1.5798

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD broke 1.9710 level down, bottomed at 1.9672, closed higher at 1.9754. My model is short as the pair is making a bearish channel on hourly chart. Immediate support seen at 1.9672 (yesterday’s low). Initial resistance at 1.9820. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9678
  • S2= 1.9602
  • S3= 1.9533
  • R1= 1.9823
  • R2= 1.9892
  • R3= 1.9968

USDJPY Outlook
The bullish momentum of USDJPY continued yesterday. The pair topped at 105.87, 3 pips away from my 105.90 target. Technically speaking in broader view, the pair is chasing 107.43 area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 95.73 to 114.77). My model remains long, targeting 106.40. However, CCI already in overbought zone on daily chart, so watch out for a downside risk. Immediate support seen at 104.90.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 104.82
  • S2= 104.08
  • S3= 103.56
  • R1= 106.08
  • R2= 106.60
  • R3= 107.34

USDCHF Outlook
The bullish momentum of USDCHF continued convincingly yesterday. My long target at 1.0490 was reached, the pair topped higher at 1.0523. My model remains long, targeting 1.0571. Immediate support is seen at 1.0450 area. CCI heading up towards 100 line on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0399
  • S2= 1.0302
  • S3= 1.0240
  • R1= 1.0558
  • R2= 1.0620
  • R3= 1.0717

Have a great weekend!

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May 29th, 2008 @ 6:58 am by Johan Kriek

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The better than expected Durable Goods figure released in the US yesterday caused the Greenback to extend its gains even further. Our strong Dollar bias is therefore still intact and the EUR bearishness may be extended as we have the Eurozone Economic Sentiment released as well as the Germany Unemployment Rate. Across the atlantic we have US GDP as well as Jobless Claims

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. The fall in EUR has been extended by the violation of the bullish Current Trend Support line (blue line) and as long as the hourly indicators stay bearish, this beautiful bearish trading condition will prevail

USD/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. The new bullish 60minute trend is evolving nicely as price keeps on taking out highs. As long as the indicators stay bullish, the trading condition will prevail. Remember that even if the Stochastic is overbought, the signal can be misleading due to the fact that we have a bullish probability. Nevertheless, should the hourly indicators cross bearish, we can expect a retrace/consolidation, but as long as price stays within the bullish 60minute trend’s boundaries, the bullish probability will stay intact

GBP/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. The bearish 60minute trend is still intact as well as the bearish hourly indicators. Just keep in mind that the bullish Current Trend Support line is significant as price can find serious support at 1.9670. If this Support line is violated, the next support would be the previous bearish Current Trend resistance line (dashed line) at 1.9600/20

USD/CHF – Bullish Trading Condition. Due to the fact that price moved back into the previous bullish Current Trend’s channel, we had to honour the low of 1.0214 and therefore identify a new BULLISH active Current Trend trend. The 60minute trend is bullish and as long as the hourly indicators stay bullish, the trading condition will prevail. Expect resistance at 1.0500

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr/
to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

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May 29th, 2008 @ 1:00 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 29th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Greenback continued it’s gain against Euro yesterday, but with less power. However, my model is short, targeting 1.5550 area. EURUSD need to stay below support level 1.5610 to keep this short term bearish momentum intact. Remember that the major trend of EURUSD is up, so we must see this bearish momentum as a correctional move. Immediate resistance seen at 1.5695 area followed by 1.5750. CCI in neutral zone on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5582
  • S2= 1.5518
  • S3= 1.5429
  • R1= 1.5735
  • R2= 1.5824
  • R3= 1.5888

GBPUSD Outlook
After violated the bullish trend line on my hourly chart, the GBPUSD move in ranging market of 1.9820 and 1.9710 area. The pair need a break out from that ranging area. My model is mixed, no trading zone.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9727
  • S2= 1.9654
  • S3= 1.9605
  • R1= 1.9849
  • R2= 1.9898
  • R3= 1.9971

USDJPY Outlook
Looks like the the USDJPY is in solid bullish momentum. Yesterday the pair topped at 105.31, closed a little bit lower at 104.67. My model is long, targeting 105.90 area. The pair need to stay above key level 105.20 (50 % Fib retracement from 95.73 to 114.77) to keep the bullish scenario intact. Immediate support seen at 104.50 followed by 104.00. CCI already in overbought area on 4h chart, so watch out for a minor downside risk.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.93
  • S2= 103.20
  • S3= 102.51
  • R1= 105.35
  • R2= 106.04
  • R3= 106.77

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the USDCHF reached my long target at 1.0391, even further, topped at 1.0422. My model remains long, targeting 1.0490 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.0320 area. CCI in overbought zone and about to cross 100 line down on 4h chart, so watch out for a minor downside pullback.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0280
  • S2= 1.0188
  • S3= 1.0117
  • R1= 1.0443
  • R2= 1.0514
  • R3= 1.0606

Have a great day!

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May 28th, 2008 @ 6:39 am by Johan Kriek

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We have the Eurozone Current Account and US Durable Goods today, therefore we could see some serious market action as Crude stays below $130. Our strong dollar bias remains intact as long as the EUR stays below 1.5815

 Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

 EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the downside, therefore the bearish probability. All we have to do now is wait for the hourly indicators to cross bearish before attempting any trades. A bonus would be if price trends below 1.5700 again…

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the downside, the GBP is relatively mixed at this stage. Bearish crosses on the hourly indicators will give us an indication of a possible bearish trading condition. Expect serious support at 1.9650

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone. Price came back to find significant resistance at the previous bullish current trend’s violated support (now resistance). Although market rhythm is trending lower, we would wait for the 1.0214 low to be taken out to confirm that price is in fact defining new lows from a 60minute probability perspective

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend resistance has been violated, therefore the bullish probability. Wait for the hourly indicators to cross bullish before trading. The latter will also confirm the violation and present us with a suitable higher trough to identify a new bullish 60minute trend

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/support/webinar.php to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

 

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May 28th, 2008 @ 2:56 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 28th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Greenback recovered against Euro. EURUSD slumped, bottomed at 1.5671 and closed at 1.5678. The pair had a sharp decline after touch 1.5818, which seen as a double top formation with 22/05/2008 high at 1.5813. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support seen at 1.5660. Initial resistance at 1.5750. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5626
  • S2= 1.5575
  • S3= 1.5479
  • R1= 1.5773
  • R2= 1.5869
  • R3= 1.5920

GBPUSD Outlook
The Greenback also slumped against Sterling yesterday after a failure to break key level 1.9850. This fact forced my model to go short, targeting 1.9660. Immediate resistance  seen at 1.9805. CCI just cross the 100 line down on daily chart

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9692
  • S2= 1.9638
  • S3= 1.9561
  • R1= 1.9823
  • R2= 1.9900
  • R3= 1.9954

USDJPY Outlook
The new bullish channel/trend line I said yesterday seems valid, as the pair go up, topped at 104.34. However, I see a potential double top formation at 104.35 area, which forced my model to mixed, no trading zone. Immediate support seen at 103.70 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.57
  • S2= 102.87
  • S3= 102.49
  • R1= 104.65
  • R2= 105.03
  • R3= 105.73

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF violated the bearish trend line, making a new bullish channel on my 1 h chart. My model goes long, targeting 1.0391. Immediate support seen at 1.0280. CCI just cross -100 line up on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0257
  • S2= 1.0172
  • S3= 1.0123
  • R1= 1.0391
  • R2= 1.0440
  • R3= 1.0525

Have a great day!

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May 27th, 2008 @ 6:27 am by Johan Kriek

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Markets remained thin throughout the day yesterday due to the UK and US holidays. Today we’ll see some movement in the markets due to the Germany GFK index as well as New Home sales data in the US and Consumer Confidence

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today;

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone. The bearish 60minute trend of yesterday has been violated to the upside and price is now finding resistance at the previous significant high of 1.5814. As soon as this high is taken out and we can clearly see bullish market rhythm, we will identify a new bullish 60minute trend, which will place the EUR in a bullish Trading Condition

USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the bearish 60minute trend is still intact, the hourly indicators must cross bearish before a suitable bearish trading condition will present itself

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone. The bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the downside but price came back to test the previous high of 1.9850. Should this high be taken out, we will have a fully fledged bullish trading condition once again. As long as price moves below 1.9850 the no trade zone will prevail although the probability is moderately bullish – it’s just not tradeable

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone. Once the low of 1.0215 has been taken out, we will have confirmation that price is in fact trending lower and only then the new bearish 60minute trend will come into play. We have to stand back and wait for a suitable trading condition

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/support/webinar.php to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

 

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May 27th, 2008 @ 2:29 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 27th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday we didn’t see significant movement due to holidays. My model for EURUSD remains long still targeting 1.5850. An upside break of that level would open the door for 1.5950. Immediate support seen at 1.5750. CCI about to cross 100 line down, so watch out for a minor downside pullback.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5745
  • S2= 1.5718
  • S3= 1.5695
  • R1= 1.5795
  • R2= 1.5818
  • R3= 1.5845

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD didn’t have enough power to test 1.9850 area and topped only at 1.9831. Today I am expecting the pair has enough power to break that level and continue it’s short term bullish outlook and open the door for 1.9925. My model remains long. Immediate support seen at 1.9750. CCI in overbought area on daily chart so watch out for a downside risk.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9771
  • S2= 1.9727
  • S3= 1.9697
  • R1= 1.9845
  • R2= 1.9875
  • R3= 1.9919

USDJPY Outlook
We didn’t see a lot of movement of USDJPY yesterday due to holidays. My model remains long as I believe the pair is making a new bullish trend line and channel, targeting 103.95. Immediate support seen at 102.95 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.17
  • S2= 102.97
  • S3= 102.81
  • R1= 103.53
  • R2= 103.69
  • R3= 103.89

USDCHF Outlook
The short term bearish trend of USDCHF should continue today as my trend line and channel both of 1h and 4 h is still valid. My model is short, targeting 1.0140 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0280 area. CCI about to cross – 100 line up, so watch out for a minor upside risk.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0223
  • S2= 1.0205
  • S3= 1.0179
  • R1= 1.0267
  • R2= 1.0293
  • R3= 1.0311

Have a great day!

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May 26th, 2008 @ 3:44 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 26th of May, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD could be very tricky now. Overbought indication of CCI on daily chart suggest that the pair bullish momentum might exhausted and a downside correction is likely to happen. However my model remains long, targeting 1.5850 area as the bullish channels and trend lines are still valid both on my 1h and 4h chart. Immediate support seen at 1.5730.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5707
  • S2= 1.5653
  • S3= 1.5610
  • R1= 1.5804
  • R2= 1.5847
  • R3= 1.5901

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD seems to have strong resistance at 1.9850 area. Today, the pair might attempt to break the level. A failure to move above that level could trigger a bearish movement, while a break out upside will open the doors for 1.9925. My model remains long. Immediate support seen at 1.9780. Initial resistance at 1.9850. CCI in overbought area on daily chart so watch out for a downside pullback.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9752
  • S2= 1.9704
  • S3= 1.9654
  • R1= 1.9850
  • R2= 1.9900
  • R3= 1.9948

USDJPY Outlook
After a violation on bearish trend lines on 1h and 4 h chart on 22/05/2008, the USDJPY seems at the beginning of making a new bullish channel. My model is long, targeting 103.95. Immediate support seen at 103.00 area. CCI about to cross – 100 line down on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 102.87
  • S2= 102.37
  • S3= 101.68
  • R1= 104.06
  • R2= 104.75
  • R3= 105.25

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF is in bearish short term trend. However, the middle and long term trend bullish trend is still intact. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support seen at 1.0200. Initial resistance at 1.0280. CCI in oversold area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0191
  • S2= 1.0142
  • S3= 1.0071
  • R1= 1.0311
  • R2= 1.0382
  • R3= 1.0431

Have a great day!

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